409 Tracey Ln · Grandyle Village, NY 14072

$269,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,576 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1973 0.29 ac lot Est $334k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy comfortable living and everyday convenience in this well-maintained Grand Island 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath raised ranch. Situated in one of the Island’s premier neighborhoods, you are 5 minutes from Grand Island High School, the expansive sports complex, and the scenic trails of Woods and Veterans Parks. Whether you are a nature lover or a sports enthusiast, this home serves as your personal gateway to the very best of Island living. The main level boasts a sun-drenched, airy floor plan designed for seamless entertaining, where the natural flow between the kitchen, dining, and living areas creates an inviting atmosphere perfect for festive holiday hosting or serene, cozy weeknights. R

Key facts

• Three season room
• Private patio
• Rejuvenating hot tub

Tags

• RAISED RANCH
• MAINTENANCE FREE DECK
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• PRIVATE PATIO
• REJUVENATING HOT TUB
• THREE SEASON ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-21 ($-255/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $266k (1.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $256k (5.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $256k (5.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.5% in Grandyle Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#416 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Grand Island Central School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #263 of 590 in NY (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Charlotte Sidway School (471 students, 21% FRL); Veronica E Connor Middle School (math 32% / reading 53%, grade D-, #373 of 729 statewide, top 52%, 679 students, 28% FRL); Grand Island Senior High School (math 95% / reading 72%, grade A, #409 of 1,100 statewide, top 39%, 868 students, 26% FRL).
• Market conditions: 130 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $92k; list at $270k implies a 193% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $255,521 (5.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.34%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $334,112
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
337 Tracey Ln	0.15mi	3/1.5	1,600 (+2%)	6mo	$320,000	$200	82
329 Laurie Ln	0.08mi	3/3.0	1,700 (+8%)	8mo	$325,000	$191	74
424 Tracey Ln	0.05mi	3/3.0	1,432 (-9%)	8mo	$279,900	$195	74
285 Tracey Ln	0.20mi	3/1.5	1,440 (-9%)	12mo	$305,000	$212	63
182 Cardinal Ln	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,428 (-9%)	9mo	$410,000	$287	62
408 Tracey Ln	0.04mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,792 (+14%)	12mo	$330,000	$184	59
72 Regency Dr	0.70mi	3/1.5	1,566 (-1%)	5mo	$365,000	$233	58
93 Park Ln	0.29mi	3/2.5	1,792 (+14%)	10mo	$420,000	$234	56
2701 Stony Point Rd	0.44mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,596 (+1%)	18mo	$320,000	$201	53
134 Cardinal Ln	0.34mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,805 (+14%)	18mo	$382,500	$212	39
75 Regency Dr	0.70mi	3/1.5	1,652 (+5%)	21mo	$340,000	$206	38
66 Regency Ct	0.67mi	3/2.5	1,352 (-14%)	20mo	$325,000	$240	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-44,940
• Equity at exit: $40,243

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-40,280
• Equity at exit: $23,336

Cash invested: $75,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14072

• Active inventory: 130
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,555 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax from tax record: −$512 /mo · $6,144/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$537
• Net cashflow: $-21

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,582

Max offer price $266,153

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $132	-5% $55	+0% $-21	+5% $-98	+10% $-174
Rent	-10% $-223	-5% $-122	+0% $-21	+5% $80	+10% $181
Rate	-1.0pp $115	-0.5pp $47	base $-21	+0.5pp $-91	+1.0pp $-162

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,475
• Closing costs: $8,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1993 Grand Island Blvd Grand Island, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1097	$22,260	$20.28	3d	33	1.18mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-13
   listed $269,900 Active
3. 1994-08-08
   soldstatus $92,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,144 · $512/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,144 · $512/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,663
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,119
• − Property taxes: −$6,144
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,453
• − Management: −$2,453
• − Depreciation: −$7,852
• Taxable loss: −$4,707
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,130
• After-tax cash flow: $875/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grand Island Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3607020
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $77,014
• Composite: 49.92/100
• National rank: #1938
• State rank: #263 of 590 in NY

Livability — Grandyle Village

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #416
• US rank: #7220

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 21,488
• Household income: $115,991
• Rent vs Own: 18.4% rent · 81.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 283.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -218.87%
• Current HPI: 332.5322
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+193.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $269,900 WNYREIS
• 1994-08-08 Sold (Public Records) $92,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,144 · +6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.