11568 Jerusalem Plank Rd · Sussex, VA 23890

$115,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 2005 2.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy peaceful country living with endless potential on 2 acres! This 2 bedroom, 1 bath home offers a functional single level layout with an expansive lot that provides plenty of room to expand or simply enjoy the privacy and open space. This home is being sold as is and is perfect for buyers looking to customize and add value, fix and flip and buy and hold investors. Ask about closing cost assistance or upgrade credit!

Key facts

• 2 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 2005

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $45 ($539/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $94k (18.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $94k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#184 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Sussex County Public School District (rural): math 36% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #111 of 131 in VA (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 29 units permitted in Sussex County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($795 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.5% local appreciation)).
• Sussex County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 52% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,723 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.68%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $13,880
• Equity at exit: $48,742

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $48,888
• Equity at exit: $72,887

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23890

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 35
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $937 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $534/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$197
• Net cashflow: $45

Break-even live

Break-even rent $880

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-18
   listed $115,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $534 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $943 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: +$409/yr (+$34/mo · 76.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 52% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,247
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$534
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$900
• − Management: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable loss: −$1,449
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$348
• After-tax cash flow: $887/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sussex County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103780
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -46.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -22.00%
• Median HH income: $40,095
• Composite: 38.44/100
• National rank: #4198
• State rank: #111 of 131 in VA

Livability — Sussex

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #5700

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 16
• Population (ZIP): 4,600

Population outlook (Sussex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,207 people
• By 2030: 10,897 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 10,451 · -6.7%
• By 2050: 9,936 · -11.3%
• By 2075: 8,643 · -22.9%
• By 2100: 6,908 · -38.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% White 36% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sussex

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.9% · R 47.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.3pp toward R · 2008: 23.8pp · 2024: 4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.4 2020: D+11.9 2016: D+16.3 2012: D+24.5 2008: D+23.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.54%
• Current HPI: 180.2394
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-02-18 Listed $115,000 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $534 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.