56 Lagoon Ct W · Aquebogue, NY 11901

$1,450,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,720 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 2001 0.94 ac lot $533/sqft · 20% above area Est $1203k · 21% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled between green farm fields and the lapping waves of Flanders Bay, 56 Lagoon Court West is near to the best of everything the North Fork has to offer. Upon entering the home, you are greeted by double height ceilings hinting at the spaciousness of the rest of the home. Flowing through the formal dining room to the rear of the home, the brand new eat in kitchen and living room with gas fireplace overlooking the backyard is the perfect space to entertain no matter the season. A first floor combination laundry and mudroom is a convenient utility space and offers additional access to the rear yard. A full bathroom and den complete the first floor. The second floor consists of a spacious p

Key facts

• Gas fireplace
• Full basement
• Deeded boat slips

Tags

• DOUBLE HEIGHT CEILINGS
• BRAND NEW EAT IN KITCHEN
• GAS FIREPLACE
• BONUS ROOM ABOVE GARAGE
• FULL BASEMENT
• DEEDED BOAT SLIPS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Cesspool sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Frame construction; Basement with Bilco door(s), full and unfinished storage attic
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Shed(s) on property; Private in-ground vinyl pool (fenced)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Refrigerator; Kitchen island; Pantry; Eat-in kitchen; Open kitchen
• Bedrooms: Includes a loft (additional room)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning; Gas fireplace
• Interior features: First floor full bath; Double vanity; Eat-in kitchen; Entrance foyer; Formal dining room; High ceilings; Kitchen island; Open kitchen; Pantry; Primary bathroom; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.45M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7k ($89k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($22k rent vs $1.45M).
• Recommended offer: $1.41M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#887 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Aquebogue Elementary School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #988 of 2,108 statewide, top 49%, 474 students, 40% FRL); Riverhead Middle School (math 18% / reading 35%, grade F, #594 of 729 statewide, top 81%, 827 students, 57% FRL); Riverhead Senior High School (math 80% / reading 86%, grade A, #440 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 2,001 students, 52% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 54% at this address vs 41% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Riverhead Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $10k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $44k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $406k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.41M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $1.45M implies a 1426% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,406,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.90%
• DSCR: 1.97
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,203,315
• List price: $1,450,000
• Delta: 20.50%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
55 Seacove Ln	0.34mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,700 (-1%)	6mo	$1,735,000	$643	71
26 Seacove Ln	0.38mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,500 (-8%)	14mo	$975,000	$390	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $237,100
• Equity at exit: $216,200

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.01×
• Total profit: $814,977
• Equity at exit: $125,369

Cash invested: $406,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11901

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $21,870 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,604
• Tax from tax record: −$1,661 /mo · $19,936/yr
• Insurance: −$604
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,593
• Net cashflow: $7,408

Break-even live

Break-even rent $12,493

Max offer price $1,450,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $362,500
• Closing costs: $43,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
599 Peconic Bay Blvd Jamesport, NY	3.0	4.0	3000	$29,000	$9.67	43d	1	0.41mi
144 Manor Ln Jamesport, NY	4.0	2.5	2100	$9,500	$4.52	3d	1	1.24mi
1727 Main Rd Unit 1538864P Laurel, NY	3.0	2.5	1937	$7,548	$3.90	13d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,450,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,450,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,450,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,450,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,450,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,450,000 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,450,000 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,450,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $1,450,000 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,450,000 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,450,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,450,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,450,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-06
    listed $1,450,000 Active 1339-char remark
15. 2000-06-22
    soldstatus $95,000
16. 1987-01-08
    soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $19,936 · $1,661/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $22,220 · $1,852/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,285/yr (+$190/mo · 11.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $262,443
• − Mortgage interest: −$81,223
• − Property taxes: −$19,936
• − Insurance: −$7,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$20,995
• − Management: −$20,995
• − Depreciation: −$42,182
• Taxable income: $69,862
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$16,767
• After-tax cash flow: $72,130/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Aquebogue

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #887
• US rank: #17213

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aquebogue, NY
• City population: 24
• Population (ZIP): 32,921

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 14% Black 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -182.60%
• Current HPI: 436.7781
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+2130.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listed $1,450,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-06-22 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 1987-01-08 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $19,936 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.