5513 Merner Ln Unit 437B · Virginia Beach, VA 23455

$330,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,207 sqft · SingleFamily

Built 1986 Est $486k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1986

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-183 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $303k (8.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $265k (19.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $265k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.5% in Virginia Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#38 in VA, #880 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, commute F.
• Va Beach City Public School District (urban): math 69% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #10 of 131 in VA (top 8%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Bayside Elementary (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #650 of 1,108 statewide, top 62%, 480 students, 74% FRL); Bayside High (math 63% / reading 75%, grade B, #170 of 319 statewide, top 55%, 1,983 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 28% district-wide (41 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.9%/yr); 204 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 666 units permitted in Virginia Beach city in 2024 (347 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Virginia Beach County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 94% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $265,451 (19.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.38%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $485,540
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5505 Merner Ln	0.03mi	4/2.5	2,207 (0%)	4mo	$455,000	$206	95
1331 Hillock Xing	0.20mi	4/2.5	1,996 (-10%)	1mo	$450,000	$225	74
5609 Tendril Last	0.35mi	4/2.5	2,093 (-5%)	1mo	$454,000	$217	74
1052 Heatherwood Dr	0.54mi	4/2.0	2,219 (+0%)	1mo	$489,000	$220	71
5609 Rossburn Dr	0.12mi	4/2.5	2,469 (+12%)	6mo	$543,900	$220	70
5509 Quarterpath Gate	0.49mi	4/2.5	2,297 (+4%)	2mo	$475,000	$207	69
5585 Lawson Hall Rd	0.20mi	4/2.5	1,876 (-15%)	0mo	$494,000	$263	65
1004 Hackney Brief	0.46mi	4/2.5	1,996 (-10%)	4mo	$437,500	$219	59
5345 Clubhead Rd	0.45mi	4/2.0	2,023 (-8%)	5mo	$502,000	$248	59
1137 Pond Cypress Dr	0.73mi	4/2.0	2,151 (-2%)	3mo	$500,000	$232	58
1284 Hillock Xing	0.32mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,462 (+12%)	5mo	$415,000	$169	57
1097 Meadow Grove Trl	0.53mi	4/2.0	2,450 (+11%)	3mo	$485,000	$198	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.93% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-57,066
• Equity at exit: $49,204

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-29,475
• Equity at exit: $28,532

Cash invested: $92,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23455

• Rents YoY: 5.9%
• Active inventory: 204
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,655 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,731
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$412 /mo · $4,950/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$557
• Net cashflow: $-183

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,887

Max offer price $303,448

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $45	-5% $-69	+0% $-183	+5% $-298	+10% $-412
Rent	-10% $-393	-5% $-288	+0% $-183	+5% $-79	+10% $26
Rate	-1.0pp $-17	-0.5pp $-100	base $-183	+0.5pp $-269	+1.0pp $-356

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,500
• Closing costs: $9,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1136 Gleaning Close Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.5	1456	$1,895	$1.30	8d	1	0.34mi
1151 Hillock Xing Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.5	1410	$1,975	$1.40	11d	1	0.37mi
913 Turtle Pond Ln Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.0	1976	$2,850	$1.44	22d	1	0.49mi
5500 Baccalaureate Dr Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.5	1400	$1,995	$1.43	15d	1	0.56mi
5632 Campus Dr Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.5	1581	$2,201	$1.39	5d	1	0.59mi
5403 Scholarship Dr Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.5	1480	$2,100	$1.42	24d	1	0.60mi
5545 Old Guard Cres Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.5	1581	$2,350	$1.49	22d	1	0.62mi
1080 Backwoods Rd Virginia Beach, VA	4.0	2.5	2545	$3,150	$1.24	13d	1	0.62mi
944 Gas Light Ln Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.5	1690	$2,300	$1.36	18d	1	0.77mi
944 Gas Light Ln Unit 1 Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.5	1690	$2,300	$1.36	17d	1	0.77mi
813 S Grosvenor Ct Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.5	1476	$2,300	$1.56	5d	1	0.80mi
5332 Bramcote Pl Unit 1 Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.5	1857	$2,695	$1.45	24d	1	0.83mi
5325 Brinsley Ln Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.5	1619	$2,500	$1.54	13d	1	0.85mi
1188 Grace Hill Dr Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.5	1805	$2,600	$1.44	5d	1	0.88mi
5328 Tamworth Pl Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.5	1857	$2,400	$1.29	24d	1	0.89mi
1001 Grace Hill Dr Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.5	1778	$2,350	$1.32	4d	1	0.92mi
1028 Grace Hill Dr Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.5	1809	$2,895	$1.60	24d	1	0.96mi
1156 Belmeade Dr Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.5	2566	$3,595	$1.40	2d	1	0.99mi
712 White Hall Ln Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	1.5	1400	$2,200	$1.57	24d	1	1.16mi
724 Hezekiah Little Dr Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.5	1748	$2,900	$1.66	2d	1	1.16mi
5416 Safe Harbour Way Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.5	1686	$2,500	$1.48	2d	1	1.45mi
6333 Tuttle Ave Norfolk, VA	3.0	2.5	1800	$2,695	$1.50	4d	1	1.47mi
4932 Westgrove Rd Virginia Beach, VA	4.0	2.5	1400	$2,450	$1.75	24d	1	1.49mi
5416 Sweetwater Ct Virginia Beach, VA	4.0	2.5	1704	$2,495	$1.46	24d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-06-16
   listed $330,000 Under Contract

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 94% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,854
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,485
• − Property taxes: −$4,950
• − Insurance: −$1,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,548
• − Management: −$2,548
• − Depreciation: −$9,600
• Taxable loss: −$7,928
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,903
• After-tax cash flow: $-299/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Va Beach City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103840
• Math proficiency: 69% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 78% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $66,452
• Composite: 63.81/100
• National rank: #594
• State rank: #10 of 131 in VA

Livability — Virginia Beach

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #38
• US rank: #880

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Virginia Beach, VA
• County: Virginia Beach City · 448,227 people
• City population: 448,227
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 49,977
• Household income: $94,069
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1820.0

Population outlook (Virginia Beach County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 480,401 people
• By 2030: 491,221 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 504,882 · +5.1%
• By 2050: 508,847 · +5.9%
• By 2075: 504,831 · +5.1%
• By 2100: 465,867 · -3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Virginia Beach

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.7% · R 48.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.4pp toward D · 2008: -0.7pp · 2024: 2.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.6 2020: D+5.4 2016: R+4.5 2012: R+2.5 2008: R+0.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.34%
• Current HPI: 296.3753
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.93%
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2026-06-15 Listed $330,000 REINMLS