753 S Shelby St · Louisville, KY 40203

$257,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,795 sqft · SingleFamily · 90 Days on market

Built 1905 3,920 sqft lot Est $461k · 44% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the heart of historic Smoketown, where timeless character meets modern convenience in one of Louisville's most vibrant and walkable neighborhoods. Built in 1905, this stately two-story home offers over 2,300 square feet of living space and showcases the charm and craftsmanship of a bygone era, all just steps from Shelby Park and minutes from some of the city's most iconic destinations. From the moment you enter, you'll appreciate the soaring ceilings, original hardwood floors, and classic architectural details that give this home its distinctive presence. Two decorative fireplaces add to the historic ambiance, while the double-thick foundation walls speak to the enduring quality

Key facts

• Historic smoketown
• Private backyard
• Finished attic space

Tags

• HISTORIC SMOKETOWN
• DOUBLE-THICK FOUNDATION WALLS
• DECORATIVE FIREPLACES
• FINISHED ATTIC SPACE
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• OFF-STREET PARKING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No monthly maintenance fee; No association fee listed

Exterior

• Parking: Rear entry parking
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Natural gas available
• Home design: Traditional single-family residence; 2 stories; Located in the Smoketown subdivision
• Construction: Built in 1905; Wood frame and brick construction; Shingle roof; Concrete block foundation
• Exterior features: Level lot; Full privacy fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the second floor)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Unfinished basement; 2 fireplaces; 6 closets; 8–9 total rooms; First-floor laundry
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on the first floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $258k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $501 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $258k).
• Recommended offer: $242k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 5.0% in Louisville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#333 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, schools D-.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 114 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,629/mo this rent would consume 102% of the median local household income ($31k/yr) (locally 1603% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $258k implies a 230% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1905 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $242,050 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1905 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.33%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $461,175
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1224 E Breckinridge St	0.48mi	3/2.0	2,785 (-0%)	1mo	$460,000	$165	76
910 E Jefferson St	0.63mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,815 (+1%)	9mo	$375,000	$133	53
516 E Breckinridge St	0.37mi	3/2.0	2,416 (-14%)	12mo	$320,000	$132	50
956 Vine St	0.58mi	3/2.5	2,440 (-13%)	1mo	$575,000	$236	49
651 Barret Ave	0.41mi	4/4.0 (+1)	2,644 (-5%)	14mo	$613,000	$232	47
1513 Morton Ave	0.73mi	3/3.5	2,842 (+2%)	19mo	$425,000	$150	42
1300 Highland Ave	0.67mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,758 (-1%)	22mo	$445,000	$161	39
1435 Morton Ave	0.69mi	3/2.5	2,440 (-13%)	23mo	$499,000	$205	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.73% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-7,982
• Equity at exit: $38,394

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $41,858
• Equity at exit: $22,264

Cash invested: $72,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40203

• Home prices YoY: -13.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 114
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,629 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,350
• Tax from tax record: −$118 /mo · $1,420/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$552
• Net cashflow: $501

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,995

Max offer price $257,500

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,375
• Closing costs: $7,725
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
829 E Chestnut St Louisville, KY	4.0	3.5	2268	$3,300	$1.46	10d	1	0.31mi
1100 S 3rd St Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	2832	$2,500	$0.88	24d	1	1.09mi
540 S 4th St Unit 401 Louisville, KY	3.0	3.5	3200	$4,500	$1.41	12d	1	1.10mi
540 S 4th St Unit 401 Louisville, KY	3.0	3.5	3200	$4,500	$1.41	24d	1	1.10mi
1115 S 4th St Unit 300 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	3200	$1,975	$0.62	24d	1	1.15mi
1300 S 3rd St Unit LOFT Louisville, KY	2.0	1.5	2150	$1,580	$0.73	24d	1	1.28mi
1375 S 1st St Louisville, KY	4.0	3.0	2470	$2,400	$0.97	24d	1	1.30mi
1451 S 2nd St Louisville, KY	4.0	3.5	3983	$4,200	$1.05	24d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 43 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $257,500 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $257,500 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $257,500 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $257,500 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $257,500 Active 85 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $257,500 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $257,500 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $257,500 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $257,500 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $257,500 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $257,500 Active 74 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $257,500 Active 73 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $257,500 Active 72 DOM
14. 2026-03-20
    listed $257,500 Active
15. 2025-09-29
    price $257,500
16. 2025-09-03
    price $260,500
17. 2025-08-19
    price $264,000
18. 2025-08-13
    price $267,000
19. 2025-07-11
    price $270,000
20. 2025-06-05
    price $272,000
21. 2025-01-23
    price $274,900
22. 2024-12-27
    price $278,000
23. 2024-11-19
    price $282,000
24. 2024-10-06
    price $284,000
25. 2024-06-24
    price $290,500
26. 2024-04-23
    price $292,000
27. 2024-03-25
    price $295,000
28. 2024-02-18
    historical
29. 2024-01-07
    price $298,000
30. 2023-11-07
    listed $305,000 Active
31. 2014-06-20
    historical
32. 2013-12-23
    listed $107,000
33. 2013-12-14
    historical
34. 2013-06-18
    listed $107,000
35. 2013-01-31
    historical
36. 2012-11-08
    listed $118,000
37. 2012-10-31
    historical
38. 2010-11-10
    listed $119,400
39. 2006-12-08
    soldstatus $78,000
40. 2003-07-29
    soldstatus $72,000
41. 2003-06-18
    listed $79,900
42. 1999-10-29
    soldstatus $77,000
43. 1999-08-06
    listed $79,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,420 · $118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,214 · $185/mo
• Expected delta: +$795/yr (+$66/mo · 56.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,543
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,424
• − Property taxes: −$1,420
• − Insurance: −$1,288
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,523
• − Management: −$2,523
• − Depreciation: −$7,491
• Taxable income: $1,874
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$450
• After-tax cash flow: $5,558/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #333
• US rank: #15887

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville, KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 769,292
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 17,742
• Household income: $30,794
• Rent vs Own: 75.1% rent · 24.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1603.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 49% White 44% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.74%
• Current HPI: 405.1872
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.73%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+222.3% since first listed

30 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Listed $257,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-09-29 Price Changed $257,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $260,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-08-19 Price Changed $264,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-08-13 Price Changed $267,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-07-11 Price Changed $270,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-06-05 Price Changed $272,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-01-23 Price Changed $274,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2024-12-27 Price Changed $278,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2024-11-19 Price Changed $282,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2024-10-06 Price Changed $284,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2024-06-24 Price Changed $290,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2024-04-23 Price Changed $292,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2024-03-25 Price Changed $295,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2024-02-18 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2024-01-07 Price Changed $298,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2023-11-07 Listed $305,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2014-06-20 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2013-12-23 Listed $107,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2013-12-14 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2013-06-18 Listed $107,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2013-01-31 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2012-11-08 Listed $118,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2012-10-31 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2010-11-10 Listed $119,400 Metro Search MLS
• 2006-12-08 Sold (Public Records) $78,000 Public Records
• 2003-07-29 Sold (MLS) $72,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2003-06-18 Listed $79,900 Metro Search MLS
• 1999-10-29 Sold (MLS) $77,000 Metro Search MLS
• 1999-08-06 Listed $79,900 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,420 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.