124 Lisa Cir · Lower Windsor, PA 17406

$134,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,624 sqft · Manufactured public records · 23 Days on market

Built 2009

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SELLER SAYS SELL!! Newer double-wide offers open floor plan, ample square footage- 2FB and 3BRS or 2 BRS and office- CAC, gas heat, vaulted ceiling, utility room and laundry area, spacious kitchen w lots of cabinets! Wow!! Nice porch and 2 car parking pad.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 2009
• Listed 23 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Senior community with 55+ age requirement; Ground rent $555 per month

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking with 2 spaces (total 2 garage/parking spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric cooling and hot water
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Made by Pine Grove; Ownership: Ground rent (monthly payment)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Above-grade and below-grade structures
• Exterior features: Porch(es); Not in a federal flood zone; Tidal water: No

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Propane (leased) heating fuel; Central air conditioning; Electric hot water
• Interior features: No basement; Living area reported by assessor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $560 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $133k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Eastern York SD (rural): math 40% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #146 of 539 in PA (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Canadochly El Sch (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #737 of 1,518 statewide, top 52%, 381 students, 56% FRL); Eastern York Ms (math 30% / reading 70%, grade C, #129 of 512 statewide, top 26%, 517 students, 48% FRL); Eastern York Hs (math 77% / reading 24%, grade D+, #125 of 437 statewide, top 30%, 632 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 32% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 174 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,328 units permitted in York County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask is 114% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $64k; list at $135k implies a 112% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,876 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.78%
• DSCR: 1.79
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $13,816
• Equity at exit: $20,114

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $58,038
• Equity at exit: $11,664

Cash invested: $37,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17406

• Home prices YoY: -27.4%
• Active inventory: 174
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,883 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax from tax record: −$164 /mo · $1,966/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $560

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,174

Max offer price $134,900

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $636	-5% $598	+0% $560	+5% $522	+10% $483
Rent	-10% $411	-5% $485	+0% $560	+5% $634	+10% $708
Rate	-1.0pp $628	-0.5pp $594	base $560	+0.5pp $525	+1.0pp $489

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,725
• Closing costs: $4,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $134,900 Coming Soon 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $134,900 Coming Soon 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $134,900 Coming Soon 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $134,900 Coming Soon 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $134,900 Coming Soon 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $134,900 Coming Soon 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $134,900 Coming Soon 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $134,900 Coming Soon 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $134,900 Coming Soon 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $134,900 Coming Soon 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $134,900 Coming Soon 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $134,900 Coming Soon 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $134,900 Coming Soon 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $134,900 Coming Soon 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $134,900 Coming Soon 2 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    remarks 693-char remark
17. 2026-05-30
    listed $134,900 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,966 · $164/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,049 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: +$83/yr (+$7/mo · 4.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,591
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,556
• − Property taxes: −$1,966
• − Insurance: −$674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,807
• − Management: −$1,807
• − Depreciation: −$3,924
• Taxable income: $4,855
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,165
• After-tax cash flow: $5,552/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eastern York SD
• NCES district ID: 4208790
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $56,178
• Composite: 44.94/100
• National rank: #2712
• State rank: #146 of 539 in PA

Livability — Lower Windsor

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: York County · 278,806 people
• Metro: York-Hanover, PA
• Population (ZIP): 23,636
• Household income: $83,521
• Rent vs Own: 17.5% rent · 82.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 296.0

Population outlook (York County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 454,205 people
• By 2030: 457,407 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 457,529 · +0.7%
• By 2050: 448,261 · -1.3%
• By 2075: 427,388 · -5.9%
• By 2100: 384,218 · -15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · York

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.3) · D 36.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.7pp toward R · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -25.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.3 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+29.3 2012: R+21.2 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.81%
• Current HPI: 245.4821
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: York-Hanover, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+86.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Coming Soon $134,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-11-20 Sold (MLS) $63,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-10-31 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-10-09 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-07-30 Listed $63,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-10-08 Listed $72,500 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,966 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.