1169 Lago Vista St · San Marcos, TX 78666

$189,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,401 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 146 Days on market

Built 1987 7,191 sqft lot $135/sqft · 29% below area Est $266k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the perfect blend of comfort and convenience in this home located in the desirable Lago Vista neighborhood. This residence have 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Enjoy a bright living area with high ceilings and large windows that flood the space with natural light. Experience the best of San Marcos living with easy access to outdoor activities and scenic views. Don’t miss the opportunity to make this wonderful property your new home!

Key facts

• Large windows
• Bright living area
• Natural light

Tags

• BRIGHT LIVING AREA
• HIGH CEILINGS
• LARGE WINDOWS
• NATURAL LIGHT
• SCENIC VIEWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $96 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (0.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $166k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.1% in San Marcos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#30 in TX, #1,601 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, employment F.
• San Marcos CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #731 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1122 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.18%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $266,202
• List price: $189,000
• Delta: -29.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1164 Lago Vista St	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,438 (+3%)	6mo	$250,000	$174	84
1153 Lago Vista St	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,401 (0%)	15mo	$199,900	$143	81
1112 Overlook Way	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,424 (+2%)	20mo	$249,900	$175	68
700 Ashley Ct	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,381 (-1%)	18mo	$254,500	$184	66
812 Lago Vista St	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,207 (-14%)	13mo	$235,000	$195	57
1509 Parkview Ln	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,342 (-4%)	2mo	$299,000	$223	56
700 Clearview Cir	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,595 (+14%)	13mo	$295,000	$185	55
700 Lago Vista St	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,197 (-15%)	10mo	$184,999	$155	52
1602 Parkview Ln	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,354 (-3%)	15mo	$310,000	$229	45
1505 Mockingbird Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,328 (-5%)	20mo	$259,900	$196	42
1607 Parkview Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,301 (-7%)	19mo	$249,000	$191	36
1603 Parkview Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,254 (-10%)	21mo	$289,900	$231	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-26,342
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-22,432
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78666

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1122
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,888 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$326 /mo · $3,908/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $96

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,767

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
821 Benning San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.5	1790	$1,825	$1.02	18d	1	0.18mi
114 Cloverleaf St San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	1420	$1,995	$1.40	44d	1	0.64mi
834 Cottonwood Pkwy San Marcos, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	838	$1,829	$2.18	2d	53	0.78mi
208 Picasso Dr San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,650	$1.47	12d	1	0.99mi
415 Candlelight Ln San Marcos, TX	5.0	2.0	1750	$1,799	$1.03	18d	1	1.01mi
1250 Sadler Dr San Marcos, TX	4.0	1.0–4.0	923	$1,200	$1.30	18d	1	1.07mi
224 Capistrano Dr San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	1495	$2,150	$1.44	44d	1	1.10mi
1011 Wonder World Dr San Marcos, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1030	$2,209	$2.14	2d	34	1.12mi
1301 Leah Ave San Marcos, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1016	$2,259	$2.22	4d	17	1.12mi
210 Teron Dr San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1490	$1,709	$1.15	3d	1	1.16mi
101 Salas Dr San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1132	$1,700	$1.50	12d	1	1.19mi
1441 Leah Ave San Marcos, TX	4.0	4.0	1500	$512	$0.34	8d	4	1.21mi
1350 Sadler Dr San Marcos, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	873	$1,478	$1.69	3d	10	1.28mi
409 Teron Dr San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1373	$1,775	$1.29	18d	1	1.32mi
417 Capistrano Dr San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1354	$1,850	$1.37	18d	1	1.32mi
3085 N State Highway 123 San Marcos, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.5	948	$1,525	$1.61	2d	15	1.39mi
2380 Staples Rd San Marcos, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1053	$2,279	$2.16	2d	127	1.40mi
617 Conway Dr San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1168	$1,750	$1.50	44d	1	1.43mi
620 Barbara Dr San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1728	$1,700	$0.98	18d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 146 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,000 Active 145 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 144 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 143 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 141 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,000 Active 137 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,000 Active 136 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,000 Active 135 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $189,000 Active 132 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,000 Active 131 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,000 Active 130 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,000 Active 129 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Active 128 DOM
14. 2026-01-23
    listed $189,000 Active 447-char remark

    Show marketing remark (447 chars)

    Discover the perfect blend of comfort and convenience in this home located in the desirable Lago Vista neighborhood. This residence have 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Enjoy a bright living area with high ceilings and large windows that flood the space with natural light. Experience the best of San Marcos living with easy access to outdoor activities and scenic views. Don’t miss the opportunity to make this wonderful property your new home!

15. 2026-01-20
    status Pending
16. 2026-01-14
    status Pending
17. 2026-01-14
    historical
18. 2025-10-30
    listed $189,000 Active
19. 2025-09-29
    status Pending
20. 2025-09-29
    historical
21. 2025-09-10
    listed $278,990 Active
22. 2025-08-12
    status Pending
23. 2025-08-12
    historical
24. 2025-07-22
    listed $278,990 Active
25. 2025-07-22
    historical
26. 2025-04-29
    listed $278,990 Active
27. 2025-04-29
    historical
28. 2025-04-07
    status Active
29. 2025-01-14
    status Pending
30. 2025-01-10
    status Option Pending
31. 2024-11-19
    price $245,990
32. 2024-11-05
    listed $255,990 Active
33. 2024-11-04
    historical
34. 2024-10-24
    listed $255,990 Active
35. 2024-10-24
    historical
36. 2024-08-19
    listed $259,990 Active
37. 2015-10-07
    soldstatus
38. 2015-09-30
    listed $110,000
39. 1999-01-22
    soldstatus
40. 1995-03-31
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,908 · $326/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,908 · $326/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,658
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$3,908
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,813
• − Management: −$1,813
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$1,906
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$457
• After-tax cash flow: $1,610/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Marcos CISD
• NCES district ID: 4838970
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $34,538
• Composite: 20.11/100
• National rank: #8644
• State rank: #731 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Marcos

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #1601

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Marcos, TX
• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• City population: 88,583
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 88,583
• Household income: $54,737
• Rent vs Own: 61.9% rent · 38.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 6504.0

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 20% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.27%
• Current HPI: 187.6679
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+71.8% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-23 Listed $189,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-30 Listed $189,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-09-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-10 Listed $278,990 HARMLS
• 2025-08-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-08-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-22 Listed $278,990 HARMLS
• 2025-04-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-04-29 Listed $278,990 HARMLS
• 2025-04-07 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-01-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-01-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-11-19 Price Changed $245,990 HARMLS
• 2024-11-05 Listed $255,990 HARMLS
• 2024-11-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-10-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-10-24 Listed $255,990 HARMLS
• 2024-08-19 Listed $259,990 HARMLS
• 2015-10-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-09-30 Listed $110,000 CTXMLS
• 1999-01-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-03-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,908 · -12.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.