415 15th Ave S · Princeton, MN 55371

$279,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 952 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 2016 7,187 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Check out this 1800+ twin home in a great location. This home offers 4 beds 2 baths and 1809 finished square ft with a 2 stall insulated garage. The large living room and inviting kitchen offer ample space for entertaining and dining. Main floor full bath with two large bedrooms that offer walk in closest for extra storage space. Lower level offers a large family room with 3/4 bath. Two large bedrooms one with walk in closet. Home has had new carpet and paint throughout. Very Easy commute to HWY 169 or HWY 95. New flooring and paint throughout.

Key facts

• 7,187 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2016

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached insulated garage with garage door opener; Asphalt driveway; 2-car garage (21x21)
• Utilities: City water (connected); City sewer (connected); 100 amp electrical service; Fuel: Electric and natural gas
• Home design: Residential attached property; Split entry (bi-level) design; Entry levels on main, upper and lower
• Construction: Poured concrete foundation; Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Vinyl exterior; In-ground sprinkler; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (mixed levels: bedrooms on upper and lower levels)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on upper level; One three-quarter bathroom in basement
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Daylight/lookout windows in basement; Finished full basement with storage space; Informal dining room; Air-to-air exchanger
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry located on lower level; Utility room on lower level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-411 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $207k (25.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (36.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (36.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.4% in Princeton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#404 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Princeton Public School District (town): math 41% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #141 of 301 in MN (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 116 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 163 units permitted in Mille Lacs County in 2024 (66 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mille Lacs County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $179,110 (36.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.29%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-71,561
• Equity at exit: $41,734

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.23×
• Total profit: $-96,167
• Equity at exit: $24,201

Cash invested: $78,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55371

• Home prices YoY: -5.4%
• Active inventory: 116
• Price-to-rent: 13.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,791 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$241 /mo · $2,896/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $-411

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,311

Max offer price $207,328

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-252	-5% $-332	+0% $-411	+5% $-490	+10% $-569
Rent	-10% $-552	-5% $-482	+0% $-411	+5% $-340	+10% $-269
Rate	-1.0pp $-270	-0.5pp $-340	base $-411	+0.5pp $-483	+1.0pp $-557

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,975
• Closing costs: $8,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,900 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,900 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,900 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,900 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,900 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $279,900 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   remarks 689-char remark
8. 2026-06-08
   listed $279,900 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,896 · $241/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,015 · $251/mo
• Expected delta: +$119/yr (+$10/mo · 4.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,493
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,679
• − Property taxes: −$2,896
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,719
• − Management: −$1,719
• − Depreciation: −$8,143
• Taxable loss: −$10,063
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,415
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,515/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Princeton Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2730030
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $61,277
• Composite: 41.33/100
• National rank: #3504
• State rank: #141 of 301 in MN

Livability — Princeton

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #404
• US rank: #9444

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Princeton, MN
• County: Sherburne County · 120,363 people
• City population: 18,103
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 18,103
• Household income: $93,824
• Rent vs Own: 15.1% rent · 84.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Mille Lacs County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,811 people
• By 2030: 23,960 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 21,835 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 19,376 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 14,838 · -40.2%
• By 2100: 11,957 · -51.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 12% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Mille Lacs

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.9) · D 28.9% · R 69.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.6pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -40.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.9 2020: R+37.8 2016: R+35.8 2012: R+8.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -19.20%
• Current HPI: 336.1604
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+0.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Coming Soon $279,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-20 Sold (Public Records) $260,000 Public Records
• 2025-01-16 Sold (MLS) $269,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-08 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-03 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-11 Price Changed $269,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-13 Listed $279,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+10.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,896 · -13.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.