3073 Adkins Forest Ln · Tallahassee, FL 32311

$158,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Manufactured public records · 141 Days on market

Built 2006 10,018 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful remodeled mobile home with a large new front porch and side porch, 3BDRM /2bath open kitchen and living room, new appliances and new duct system, new fence on back side of property and new flooring in the kitchen. New roof, all on large high and dry lot. Location less than one mile to Walmart, Sams club, DQ, Dollar Tree, and CVS, just two blocks south of Apalachee Parkway!

Key facts

• New flooring
• New appliances
• New duct system

Tags

• REMODELED MOBILE HOME
• LARGE NEW FRONT PORCH
• NEW APPLIANCES
• NEW DUCT SYSTEM
• NEW FENCE
• NEW FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Offered for sale

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story home; Double wide mobile home
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Patio/porch; Partial fencing; Lot dimensions 73x115x76x115; Private maintained road (unimproved)

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Range; Refrigerator; Icemaker; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 2 — 11x10; Bedroom 3 — 10x10
• Flooring: Carpet; Engineered hardwood; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating; Heat pump; Wood heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Tray ceilings; Vaulted ceilings; Garden tub / Roman tub; Stall shower; Window treatments; Split bedroom floorplan
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Utility room — 12x14

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $158k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $498 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $158k).
• Recommended offer: $139k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 4.2% in Tallahassee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#19 in FL, #429 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D.
• Leon (urban): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #33 of 73 in FL (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 117 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,765 units permitted in Leon County in 2024 (975 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Leon County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($139k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $158k implies a 858% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,040 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.52%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $101,080
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3297 Connie Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,056 (-1%)	8mo	$100,000	$95	81

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $10,797
• Equity at exit: $23,558

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $70,447
• Equity at exit: $13,661

Cash invested: $44,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32311

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 117
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,801 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$829
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $359/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $498

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,170

Max offer price $158,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $588	-5% $543	+0% $498	+5% $454	+10% $409
Rent	-10% $356	-5% $427	+0% $498	+5% $569	+10% $641
Rate	-1.0pp $578	-0.5pp $539	base $498	+0.5pp $457	+1.0pp $416

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,500
• Closing costs: $4,740
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1736 Augustine Pl Tallahassee, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,000	$1.43	21d	1	0.29mi
2750 Old Saint Augustine Rd Tallahassee, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1230	$1,739	$1.41	21d	2	0.38mi
3373 Apalachee Pkwy Tallahassee, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	779	$1,258	$1.61	14d	1	0.54mi
2250 Bluff Oak Way Tallahassee, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1538	$1,978	$1.29	14d	17	0.56mi
3148 Dick Wilson Blvd Tallahassee, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1536	$1,940	$1.26	14d	14	0.69mi
2074 Midyette Rd Tallahassee, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1033	$1,346	$1.30	14d	1	0.76mi
2902 Battle Mountain Rd Tallahassee, FL	2.0	2.0	1160	$1,324	$1.14	21d	4	0.82mi
1515 Paul Russell Rd #85 Tallahassee, FL	3.0	2.5	1482	$1,400	$0.94	21d	1	1.02mi
430 Grail Ct Tallahassee, FL	3.0	2.0	1252	$2,300	$1.84	21d	1	1.05mi
1572 Keily Run Unit 1572 Tallahassee, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,250	$1.04	21d	1	1.09mi
1942 Darryl Dr Unit 1 Tallahassee, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,300	$1.92	21d	1	1.15mi
2001 Old Saint Augustine Rd Tallahassee, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	875	$1,436	$1.64	14d	11	1.18mi
432 Merlin Way Tallahassee, FL	3.0	2.0	1453	$2,150	$1.48	21d	1	1.19mi
1872 Darryl Dr Tallahassee, FL	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,500	$1.41	21d	1	1.20mi
2400 Barcelona Ct Tallahassee, FL	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,600	$1.48	14d	1	1.25mi
3909 Reserve Dr Tallahassee, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1220	$1,825	$1.50	14d	1	1.28mi
3550 Esplanade Way Tallahassee, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1031	$2,028	$1.97	14d	27	1.29mi
2221 Orange Ave E Tallahassee, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1007	$2,234	$2.22	14d	28	1.29mi
2729 Blair stone Ln Unit 1 Tallahassee, FL	3.0	1.5	1280	$1,550	$1.21	21d	1	1.32mi
2912 Capital Park Dr Tallahassee, FL	3.0	2.0	1236	$1,650	$1.33	14d	1	1.39mi
501 S Blair Stone Rd Tallahassee, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1080	$1,605	$1.49	21d	1	1.41mi
599 Chicopee Ct Unit D Tallahassee, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,095	$1.22	21d	1	1.43mi
581 Holyoke Ct Apt C Tallahassee, FL	2.0	1.0	995	$1,125	$1.13	21d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $158,000 Active 141 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $158,000 Active 140 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $158,000 Active 139 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $158,000 Active 138 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $158,000 Active 136 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $158,000 Active 133 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $158,000 Active 132 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $158,000 Active 131 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $158,000 Active 130 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $158,000 Active 127 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $158,000 Active 126 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $158,000 Active 125 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $158,000 Active 124 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $158,000 Active 123 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $158,000 Active 122 DOM
16. 2026-01-29
    listed $158,000 Active
17. 2026-01-24
    historical
18. 2025-07-23
    listed $163,000 Active
19. 2025-07-01
    historical
20. 2024-12-03
    price $158,000
21. 2024-11-22
    listed $168,000 Active
22. 2007-04-03
    soldstatus $16,500
23. 2007-04-03
    soldstatus $16,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $359 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,311 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: +$953/yr (+$79/mo · 265.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,609
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,850
• − Property taxes: −$359
• − Insurance: −$790
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,729
• − Management: −$1,729
• − Depreciation: −$4,596
• Taxable income: $3,556
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$854
• After-tax cash flow: $5,126/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Leon
• NCES district ID: 1201110
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,339
• Composite: 42.84/100
• National rank: #3131
• State rank: #33 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tallahassee

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #429

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C+ Employment D Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tallahassee, FL
• County: Leon County · 294,472 people
• City population: 294,472
• Metro: Tallahassee, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,905
• Household income: $81,243
• Rent vs Own: 38.9% rent · 61.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 795.0

Population outlook (Leon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,507 people
• By 2030: 330,677 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 358,465 · +13.6%
• By 2050: 386,804 · +22.6%
• By 2075: 465,480 · +47.5%
• By 2100: 519,959 · +64.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Black 27% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Leon

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.8) · D 60.3% · R 38.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 24.3pp · 2024: 21.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.8 2020: D+28.3 2016: D+25.1 2012: D+23.6 2008: D+24.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.68%
• Current HPI: 238.8804
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.55%
• Metro: Tallahassee, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+857.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-29 Listed $158,000 CATRS
• 2026-01-24 Listing Removed — CATRS
• 2025-07-23 Listed $163,000 CATRS
• 2025-07-01 Listing Removed — CATRS
• 2024-12-03 Price Changed $158,000 CATRS
• 2024-11-22 Listed $168,000 CATRS
• 2007-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $16,500 Public Records
• 2007-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $16,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $359 · +15.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.