120 Old Piney Forest Rd · Danville, VA 24540

$24,500

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,704 sqft · Land public records · 63 Days on market

Built 2003 $14/sqft · 73% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

On a Rented Lot. Can stay or client can move.

Key facts

• Built 2003
• Listed 62 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $24k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $722 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $24k).
• Recommended offer: $23k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 41.7% vs local median 5.3% in Danville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#91 in VA, #2,952 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, crime D-, commute F.
• Danville City Public School District (town): math 30% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #128 of 131 in VA (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 211 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Danville city in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $169 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $735 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Danville County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($23k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (36%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $23,030 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 41.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 126.33%
• DSCR: 6.62
• GRM: 1.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $52,919
• List price: $24,500
• Delta: -53.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.13×
• Total profit: $42,044
• Equity at exit: $3,653

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 14.98×
• Total profit: $95,910
• Equity at exit: $2,118

Cash invested: $6,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24540

• Home prices YoY: -20.0%
• Active inventory: 211
• Price-to-rent: 1.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,128 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$128
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$31 /mo · $368/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $722

Break-even live

Break-even rent $214

Max offer price $24,500

Occupancy floor 31%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,125
• Closing costs: $735
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $24,500 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $24,500 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $24,500 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $24,500 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $24,500 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $24,500 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $24,500 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $24,500 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $24,500 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    price $24,500 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $29,000 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $29,000 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $29,000 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $29,000 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $29,000 Active 45 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $29,000 Active 44 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $29,000 Active 43 DOM
18. 2026-05-14
    price $29,000 45-char remark

    Show marketing remark (45 chars)

    On a Rented Lot. Can stay or client can move.

19. 2026-04-17
    listed $38,000 Active 45-char remark

    Show marketing remark (45 chars)

    On a Rented Lot. Can stay or client can move.

20. 2025-07-03
    price $45,500
21. 2025-01-23
    listed $55,000 Active
22. 2018-05-23
    soldstatus $943,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,542
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,372
• − Property taxes: −$368
• − Insurance: −$122
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,083
• − Management: −$1,083
• − Depreciation: −$713
• Taxable income: $8,800
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,112
• After-tax cash flow: $6,554/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Danville City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101110
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $31,952
• Composite: 30.23/100
• National rank: #6298
• State rank: #128 of 131 in VA

Livability — Danville

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #91
• US rank: #2952

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Danville, VA
• County: Danville City · 59,055 people
• City population: 59,055
• Metro: Danville, VA
• Population (ZIP): 31,013
• Household income: $47,924
• Rent vs Own: 40.4% rent · 59.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1170.0

Population outlook (Danville County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 40,989 people
• By 2030: 40,432 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 39,255 · -4.2%
• By 2050: 38,035 · -7.2%
• By 2075: 35,612 · -13.1%
• By 2100: 30,365 · -25.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 42% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Danville

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.1) · D 60.1% · R 39.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: 19.1pp · 2024: 21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.1 2020: D+22.1 2016: D+19.9 2012: D+22.1 2008: D+19.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.79%
• Current HPI: 235.1746
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Danville, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-96.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $29,000 DRRAR
• 2026-04-17 Listed $38,000 DRRAR
• 2025-07-03 Price Changed $45,500 LMLS
• 2025-01-23 Listed $55,000 LMLS
• 2018-05-23 Sold (Public Records) $943,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,024 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.