1221 Herring Dr · Forney, TX 75126

$327,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,338 sqft · SingleFamily · 114 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $140/sqft · 8% below area Est $356k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MLS# 21238038 - Built by Starlight Homes - Ready Now! ~ This stunning single-family residence, completed in 2025, boasts 2,338 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space in the desirable Gateway Parks subdivision. Featuring four spacious bedrooms and two full bathrooms, this traditional-style home is perfect for modern living. Revel in the open floorplan that enhances connectivity between the living and dining areas, ideal for family gatherings and entertaining. The kitchen showcases elegant granite countertops and a convenient pantry, while the living areas are bathed in natural light and equipped with cable TV access.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Walk-in closet
• Flex room

Tags

• COVERED PORCH
• FLEX ROOM
• OPEN KITCHEN
• BACK PATIO
• SPACIOUS LOFT
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $327k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-110 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $311k (4.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $272k (16.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $272k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.2% in Forney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Henderson El (math 52% / reading 54%, grade C, #705 of 4,322 statewide, top 17%, 737 students, 50% FRL); Warren Middle (math 43% / reading 50%, grade D+, #443 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 903 students, 26% FRL); Forney H S (math 64% / reading 58%, grade C+, #258 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 2,272 students, 28% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2639 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 82% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($104k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($298k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $272,162 (16.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.44%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $355,996
• List price: $327,000
• Delta: -8.15%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1246 Herring Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0	2,338 (0%)	2mo	$299,000	$128	95
1282 Herring Dr	0.14mi	4/2.5	2,338 (0%)	3mo	$297,990	$127	89
1613 Yellowstone Dr	0.33mi	4/2.5	2,358 (+1%)	4mo	$345,000	$146	78
1553 Sugarberry Dr	0.34mi	4/3.0	2,298 (-2%)	2mo	$350,000	$152	75
1561 Sugarberry Dr	0.35mi	4/3.0	2,139 (-8%)	1mo	$350,000	$164	65
1276 Meridian Dr	0.39mi	4/3.0	2,162 (-8%)	2mo	$315,000	$146	64
1216 Kensington Dr	0.42mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,221 (-5%)	1mo	$335,000	$151	62
1557 Wyler Dr	0.25mi	4/3.0	2,064 (-12%)	3mo	$325,000	$157	62
1560 Seminole Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,020 (-14%)	3mo	$330,000	$163	61
1569 Wyler Dr	0.27mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,568 (+10%)	3mo	$350,000	$136	60
1805 Bachman Ln	0.67mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,389 (+2%)	2mo	$416,600	$174	57
1817 Bachman Ln	0.74mi	4/3.0	2,243 (-4%)	2mo	$427,000	$190	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-64,196
• Equity at exit: $48,757

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-81,668
• Equity at exit: $28,273

Cash invested: $91,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 70 active · 18 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.5 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $358,445 ($161/sqft)
• Median days on market: 75 d
• This list price: 23% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -5.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2639
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,722 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,715
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$409 /mo · $4,905/yr
• Insurance: −$136
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$572
• Net cashflow: $-110

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,861

Max offer price $311,120

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $116	-5% $3	+0% $-110	+5% $-223	+10% $-336
Rent	-10% $-325	-5% $-217	+0% $-110	+5% $-2	+10% $105
Rate	-1.0pp $55	-0.5pp $-27	base $-110	+0.5pp $-194	+1.0pp $-281

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,750
• Closing costs: $9,810
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1237 Herring Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2338	$2,400	$1.03	93d	1	0.01mi
1238 Herring Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	1912	$2,295	$1.20	33d	1	0.02mi
1246 Herring Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2338	$2,895	$1.24	30d	1	0.03mi
1253 Herring Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1906	$2,350	$1.23	93d	1	0.05mi
1213 Herring Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1876	$2,050	$1.09	37d	1	0.05mi
1257 Herring Dr Forney, TX	5.0	4.5	3131	$3,495	$1.12	16d	1	0.06mi
1210 Lambert Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2338	$2,695	$1.15	73d	1	0.07mi
1282 Herring Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2344	$2,995	$1.28	73d	1	0.11mi
1552 Seminole Dr Forney, TX	5.0	4.0	2874	$3,000	$1.04	38d	1	0.15mi
1560 Seminole Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2020	$2,250	$1.11	43d	1	0.17mi
1557 Wyler Dr Unit 1557 Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2064	$2,850	$1.38	93d	1	0.23mi
1553 Sugarberry Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2348	$2,900	$1.24	64d	1	0.31mi
1593 Kessler Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1868	$2,349	$1.26	48d	1	0.34mi
1593 Kessler Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1868	$2,349	$1.26	28d	1	0.34mi
1260 Meridian Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1960	$2,200	$1.12	43d	1	0.36mi
1260 Meridian Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1960	$2,200	$1.12	32d	1	0.36mi
1581 Ferguson Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1922	$2,200	$1.14	43d	1	0.38mi
1644 Pegasus Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2810	$2,795	$0.99	93d	1	0.42mi
1304 Meridian Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2037	$2,199	$1.08	30d	1	0.43mi
1656 Deerpath Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2202	$3,800	$1.73	26d	1	0.46mi
1665 Sheldon Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.5	2907	$3,095	$1.06	37d	1	0.49mi
1688 Sheldon Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.5	2690	$2,850	$1.06	12d	1	0.56mi
1422 Greenbelt Dr Forney, TX	5.0	3.5	2667	$3,500	$1.31	37d	1	0.60mi
1633 Glacier Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2698	$3,000	$1.11	43d	1	0.61mi
1832 Sandlin Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2058	$2,400	$1.17	93d	1	0.63mi
1822 Sandlin Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2338	$2,076	$0.89	56d	1	0.63mi
1822 Sandlin Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2338	$2,010	$0.86	43d	1	0.63mi
1840 Sandlin Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2717	$2,566	$0.94	56d	1	0.63mi
1818 Sandlin Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2060	$2,105	$1.02	41d	1	0.63mi
1825 Sandlin Dr Forney, TX	5.0	3.0	2306	$2,450	$1.06	93d	1	0.66mi
1804 Sandlin Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2338	$2,151	$0.92	70d	1	0.66mi
1736 Everglades Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2333	$2,650	$1.14	43d	1	0.67mi
1432 Lawnview Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2252	$2,599	$1.15	26d	1	0.71mi
1926 Honey Creek Rd Forney, TX	4.0	4.5	2874	$3,000	$1.04	93d	1	0.73mi
1273 Palmetto Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	3370	$3,000	$0.89	93d	1	0.76mi
1284 Caprock Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2982	$3,300	$1.11	73d	1	0.78mi
1312 Caprock Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2890	$3,400	$1.18	43d	1	0.79mi
1817 Lockhart Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2331	$2,950	$1.27	56d	1	0.83mi
1820 Purtis Creek Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2140	$2,700	$1.26	0d	1	0.84mi
1308 Parkdale St Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2389	$2,800	$1.17	3d	1	0.86mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price: $327,000

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Electric serviceCentral airHeat pump
• Home design: Spec-built plan named SpectraSingle-family property

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalMicrowave
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating with heat pumpCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: DishwasherDisposalMicrowave

Listing history 49 events

1. 2026-08-06
   days on market $327,000 Active 114 DOM
2. 2026-08-05
   days on market $327,000 Active 113 DOM
3. 2026-08-04
   days on market $327,000 Active 112 DOM
4. 2026-08-03
   days on market $327,000 Active 111 DOM
5. 2026-07-31
   days on market $327,000 Active 108 DOM
6. 2026-07-30
   days on market $327,000 Active 107 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $327,000 Active 106 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $327,000 Active 105 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $327,000 Active 103 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $327,000 Active 101 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $327,000 Active 100 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $327,000 Active 99 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $327,000 Active 98 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $327,000 Active 97 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $327,000 Active 95 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $327,000 Active 94 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $327,000 Active 93 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $327,000 Active 92 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $327,000 Active 91 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $327,000 Active 90 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $327,000 Active 89 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $327,000 Active 88 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $327,000 Active 87 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $327,000 Active 86 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $327,000 Active 84 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $327,000 Active 83 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $327,000 Active 82 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $327,000 Active 81 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $327,000 Active 80 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $327,000 Active 79 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $327,000 Active 78 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $327,000 Active 77 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $327,000 Active 76 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $327,000 Active 75 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $327,000 Active 74 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $327,000 Active 73 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $327,000 Active 71 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $327,000 Active 69 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $327,000 Active 68 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $327,000 Active 65 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $327,000 Active 64 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $327,000 Active 63 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $327,000 Active 62 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $327,000 Active 60 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    statusdays on marketlisting id $327,000 Active 59 DOM
46. 2026-05-11
    status Pending 1027-char remark
47. 2026-04-18
    price $327,000 1027-char remark
48. 2026-04-14
    listed $327,000 Active 595-char remark
49. 2026-04-13
    listed $360,990 Active 1027-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,659
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,317
• − Property taxes: −$4,905
• − Insurance: −$1,635
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,613
• − Management: −$2,613
• − Depreciation: −$9,513
• Taxable loss: −$6,936
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,665
• After-tax cash flow: $348/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-family home in Gateway Parks subdivision is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for minor updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale Kitchen backsplash — Improves kitchen functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Resale Bathroom vanity and fixtures — Enhances bathroom functionality and aesthetics ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Henderson El C TX #705/4,322 Nat'l #10,986/41,679 Middle Warren Middle D+ TX #443/1,662 Nat'l #4,335/14,009 High Forney H S C+ TX #258/1,632 Nat'l #3,443/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Forney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #3339

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Forney, TX
• County: Kaufman County · 138,716 people
• City population: 84,799
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

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Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price: $327,000

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Electric serviceCentral airHeat pump
• Home design: Spec-built plan named SpectraSingle-family property

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalMicrowave
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating with heat pumpCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: DishwasherDisposalMicrowave