2120 Robins Ln SE #130 · Salem, OR 97302

$264,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,782 sqft · Manufactured public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1988 Est $214k · 24% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.4/30.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

WOW! Taken down to the studs, this 1782 sq ft Goldenwest on a corner lot in Terrace Lake's 55+ gated community was remodeled inside & out! Like new!!! Spare BRs/BA on opposite end from MBR/BA; huge living, kitchen & family room inbetween. Kit w/ granite cntrtops, farmhouse sink, skylight & brkfst area. Dining room w/ slider to large back deck in fenced yard. Sink in spacious utility—accessed from sp BA, too. Extra deep, detached double garage.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Granite cntrtops
• Remodeled inside

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• GATED COMMUNITY
• REMODELED INSIDE
• GRANITE CNTRTOPS
• FARMHOUSE SINK
• SKYLIGHT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty not included; No assessments/liens reported
• HOA & community: Park rent includes garbage, cable, swimming pool, and other amenities (refer to remarks)

Exterior

• Parking: Detached double (2-car) garage; Extra deep garage
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: City water (connected); City sewer
• Home design: Double-wide manufactured home; Located in a 55+ gated community (adult park); Front door entry
• Construction: Built in 1988; Fiber cement siding with lap style; Composition (asphalt) roof; Pier foundation
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Large back deck; Landscaped lot; Corner lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric built-in range; Granite countertops; Farmhouse sink; Skylight; Breakfast area
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on the main level; Bedroom 2 on the main level; Bedroom 3 on the main level
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: Two bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Gas and electric heating; Forced air; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High-speed communication available; Formal dining area
• Laundry & utility: Utility room on the main level; Utility room includes a sink

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $199 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (10.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $236k (10.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 2.9% in Salem — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#59 in OR, #2,084 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Salem-Keizer SD 24J (urban): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #103 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pringle Elementary School (499 students, 91% FRL); Judson Middle School (810 students, 96% FRL); South Salem High School (2,256 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 53% district-wide (42 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 249 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $265k implies a 434% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $236,029 (10.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.21%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $213,840
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2120 Robins Ln SE #180	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,782 (0%)	2mo	$243,000	$136	98
2120 SE Robins Ln #145	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,782 (0%)	5mo	$200,000	$112	96
2120 Robins Ln SE #185	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,728 (-3%)	5mo	$224,900	$130	85
2120 Robins Ln SE #202	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,620 (-9%)	11mo	$194,000	$120	76
2000 Robins Ln SE #34	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,782 (0%)	11mo	$124,000	$70	76
2120 Robins Ln #2	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-14%)	8mo	$185,000	$120	70
2120 Robins Ln SE #207	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,593 (-11%)	10mo	$225,000	$141	69
2000 Robins Ln SE #40	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,620 (-9%)	6mo	$81,200	$50	64
2000 Robins Ln SE #9	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,586 (-11%)	4mo	$143,000	$90	63
2120 Robins Ln SE #66	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-14%)	7mo	$182,000	$118	59
2120 Robins Ln SE #7	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,521 (-15%)	11mo	$242,500	$159	56
2040 Navaho Ct SE	0.42mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,560 (-12%)	4mo	$94,999	$61	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.84% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-33,061
• Equity at exit: $39,497

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-23,680
• Equity at exit: $22,904

Cash invested: $74,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97302

• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 249
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,360 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,389
• Tax from tax record: −$166 /mo · $1,997/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$496
• Net cashflow: $199

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,109

Max offer price $264,900

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $349	-5% $274	+0% $199	+5% $124	+10% $49
Rent	-10% $12	-5% $105	+0% $199	+5% $292	+10% $385
Rate	-1.0pp $332	-0.5pp $266	base $199	+0.5pp $130	+1.0pp $60

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,225
• Closing costs: $7,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6127 Blue River Dr SE Salem, OR	3.0	2.5	1531	$2,450	$1.60	45d	1	0.64mi
1951 Madras St SE Salem, OR	2.0	2.5	1465	$1,975	$1.35	23d	1	0.67mi
6953 Talloc Ave SE Unit 6955 Salem, OR	3.0	2.5	1418	$2,295	$1.62	15d	1	0.73mi
5943 Blue River Dr SE Salem, OR	3.0	3.0	1472	$2,395	$1.63	45d	1	0.76mi
1544 Fircrest Ct SE Salem, OR	2.0	1.5	1296	$1,850	$1.43	25d	1	0.90mi
2772 Bastille Ave SE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1614	$2,495	$1.55	23d	1	1.16mi
5512 Murray St SE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1275	$2,645	$2.07	23d	1	1.19mi
5423 Monterey Dr SE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1457	$2,295	$1.58	25d	1	1.24mi
922 Rees Hill Rd SE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	2333	$3,995	$1.71	45d	1	1.28mi
6755 Devon Ave SE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	2213	$3,100	$1.40	45d	1	1.42mi
1250 Baxter Rd SE Unit 1276 Salem, OR	3.0	2.5	1289	$2,395	$1.86	15d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $264,900 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   remarks 456-char remark
3. 2026-06-19
   listed $264,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,997 · $166/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,570 · $214/mo
• Expected delta: +$572/yr (+$48/mo · 28.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,323
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,839
• − Property taxes: −$1,997
• − Insurance: −$1,324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,266
• − Management: −$2,266
• − Depreciation: −$7,706
• Taxable loss: −$2,075
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$498
• After-tax cash flow: $2,882/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Salem-Keizer SD 24J
• NCES district ID: 4110820
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,632
• Composite: 37.16/100
• National rank: #9017
• State rank: #103 of 183 in OR

Livability — Salem

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #2084

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Salem, OR
• County: Marion County · 258,219 people
• City population: 193,601
• Metro: Salem, OR
• Population (ZIP): 40,799
• Household income: $85,833
• Rent vs Own: 38.5% rent · 61.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1754.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 10% Black 2% Pacific Islander 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.0 2020: D+1.1 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -382.78%
• Current HPI: 296.7837
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• Metro: Salem, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+434.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $264,900 WVMLS
• 1988-10-10 Sold (Public Records) $49,610 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,997 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.