13169 S Lee Shore Dr · Conroe, TX 77318

$85,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 784 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 82 Days on market

Built 1985 4,024 sqft lot $22/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautiful renovated open concept 2 bedroom home. This ranch style home flows seamlessly and shows like brand new featuring new everything, granite countertops, custom cabinets, fresh paint, tall vaulted ceilings, cedar beams, and so much more. Enjoy Lake Conroe access and all the Shadow Bay Community amenities including Social clubs, Sports courts, Parks, Picnic Areas, Fishing from the dock, Boat launch, and a Community Center available for all your social events, and Parties. This hidden Gem backs up to the forest so you can enjoy nature at its best while grilling or just relaxing on your covered deck. Schedule your showing today

Key facts

• Renovated
• Custom cabinets
• Open concept

Tags

• RENOVATED
• OPEN CONCEPT
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• CUSTOM CABINETS
• LAKE CONROE ACCESS
• SHADOW BAY COMMUNITY AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community managed by IMC Property Management; Annual association fee ($260) covering clubhouse and common areas; Community amenities include basketball court, boat ramp, clubhouse, picnic area, playground, park, boat slip, and trails

Exterior

• Parking: Additional parking available
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (rooms listed on first floor)
• Construction: Built in 1985; Cement siding; Structural insulated panels; Metal roof; Block and pier/pillar foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Patio; Cleared lot; Greenbelt; Side yard; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (approx. 14 x 12); Bedroom on first floor (approx. 14 x 13)
• Flooring: Laminate; Plank; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Granite counters; High ceilings; Kitchen/family room combo; Kitchen/dining combo; Tub with shower; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $547 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $80k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.0% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Robert P Brabham Middle (math 33% / reading 41%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 1,117 students, 52% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1199 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.58%
• DSCR: 2.23
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $16,946
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.84×
• Total profit: $43,715
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1199
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,406 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $726/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$22
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $547

Break-even live

Break-even rent $714

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $595	-5% $571	+0% $547	+5% $523	+10% $499
Rent	-10% $436	-5% $491	+0% $547	+5% $602	+10% $658
Rate	-1.0pp $590	-0.5pp $569	base $547	+0.5pp $525	+1.0pp $502

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $22 · $264/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-02
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-28
   price $85,000
4. 2026-02-08
   listed $89,900 Active
5. 2019-12-06
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $726 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,556 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: +$829/yr (+$69/mo · 114.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,870
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$726
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,350
• − Management: −$1,350
• − HOA: −$264
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $5,521
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,325
• After-tax cash flow: $5,238/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 279.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $85,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-08 Listed $89,900 HARMLS
• 2019-12-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $726 · -17.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.