564 S 1st St · Fulton, NY 13069

$110,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,461 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1890 5,508 sqft lot Est $172k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• Appreciation +8.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Purchasers must be first-time homebuyers and are subject to income limits (80% AMI and below) and owner-occupancy requirements pursuant to New York State Homes & Community Renewal’s Legacy City ACCESS Program. Purchasers must complete income qualification and homebuyer education training with a HUD-certified homeownership counselor prior to purchase. Property being sold on first-come-first-serve basis with offers to be considered in the order they are received (to be considered, package must include a copy of Purchaser's preapproval and purchase offer contract containing language in Section 26 indicating Purchaser represents their household income is within 80% AMI and below). P

Key facts

• 5,508 sq ft lot
• Built 1890
• Listed 18 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $441 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 6.9% in Fulton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#907 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools D-, crime F.
• Fulton City School District (town): math 29% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #554 of 590 in NY (top 94%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($761 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (6.8% local appreciation)).
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,350 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.37%
• DSCR: 1.86
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $172,398
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
700 Fay St	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,448 (-1%)	4mo	$195,000	$135	77
797 S 1st St	0.38mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,443 (-1%)	1mo	$175,000	$121	74
557 W 2nd St S	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,386 (-5%)	6mo	$121,000	$87	66
452 Broadwell Ave	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,440 (-1%)	2mo	$170,000	$118	64
407 State St	0.45mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,380 (-6%)	2mo	$125,000	$91	61
309 Pratt St	0.33mi	3/1.5	1,323 (-9%)	8mo	$147,000	$111	60
39 Frawley Dr	0.67mi	3/1.5	1,500 (+3%)	4mo	$214,900	$143	58
43 Whitcomb Rd	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,340 (-8%)	0mo	$225,000	$168	57
421 W 3rd St S	0.53mi	3/1.5	1,336 (-9%)	3mo	$127,200	$95	56
904 W 1st St S	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,602 (+10%)	2mo	$188,750	$118	50
687 W Fourth St S	0.64mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,365 (-7%)	8mo	$156,000	$114	48
466 Park Ave	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,361 (-7%)	8mo	$155,000	$114	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.75% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.11×
• Total profit: $64,883
• Equity at exit: $74,407

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.45×
• Total profit: $167,881
• Equity at exit: $139,722

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13069

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,601 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$145 /mo · $1,737/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $441

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,042

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
303 S 5th St Fulton, NY	4.0	1.5	1800	$1,850	$1.03	13d	1	0.55mi
262 W 4th St S Unit 1 Fulton, NY	3.0	1.0	1316	$1,500	$1.14	43d	1	0.77mi
312 Utica St Fulton, NY	3.0	1.0	1060	$1,300	$1.23	13d	1	0.86mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-02-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-19
   listed $110,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,737 · $145/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,798 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: +$61/yr (+$5/mo · 3.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,208
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,737
• − Insurance: −$1,216
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,537
• − Management: −$1,537
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $3,819
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$917
• After-tax cash flow: $4,381/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fulton City School District
• NCES district ID: 3611700
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,337
• Composite: 30.49/100
• National rank: #6220
• State rank: #554 of 590 in NY

Livability — Fulton

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #907
• US rank: #17723

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fulton, NY
• Population (ZIP): 23,176

Population outlook (Oswego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 114,465 people
• By 2030: 109,968 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 99,205 · -13.3%
• By 2050: 87,979 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 65,100 · -43.1%
• By 2100: 47,117 · -58.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Romanian 6% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oswego

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.2) · D 37.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -24.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.2 2020: R+20.2 2016: R+23.2 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.75%
• Current HPI: 304.443
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-06 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-01-19 Listed $110,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2021): $1,737 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.