2518 Gardner St · Alger, MI 48610

$44,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 566 sqft · SingleFamily · 170 Days on market

3,920 sqft lot $79/sqft · 23% below area Est $59k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute little cottage just off of Secord Lake! Check out this 1 bedroom, 1 bath cottage with a cozy feel. The cottage has a covered porch and 2 sheds for some extra storage. A small yard with very little yard work so you can enjoy more time making memories. There is an easement for this property that you can go right down to the waters edge and kayak to the Lake. This cottage is just off Wildwood Road and very close to tons of State Land. A perfect little escape from the busy city, with great hunting and trail riding within a few miles. Come check this out today before it's gone!

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Trail riding
• Extra storage

Tags

• COVERED PORCH
• EXTRA STORAGE
• EASEMENT TO WATERS EDGE
• CLOSE TO STATE LAND
• TRAIL RIDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $353 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($785 rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• West Branch-Rose City Area Schools (rural): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #306 of 540 in MI (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 90 units permitted in Gladwin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $310 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gladwin County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $45k implies a 80% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $39,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.71%
• DSCR: 2.50
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $58,637
• List price: $44,900
• Delta: -23.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2518 Gardner St	0.00mi	1/1.0	566 (0%)	0mo	$37,000	$65	100
4469 Walnut St	0.43mi	2/1.0 (+1)	520 (-8%)	20mo	$115,000	$221	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.21×
• Total profit: $15,204
• Equity at exit: $6,695

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.35×
• Total profit: $42,144
• Equity at exit: $3,882

Cash invested: $12,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48610

• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $785 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$235
• Tax from tax record: −$13 /mo · $156/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$165
• Net cashflow: $353

Break-even live

Break-even rent $338

Max offer price $44,900

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $379	-5% $366	+0% $353	+5% $340	+10% $328
Rent	-10% $291	-5% $322	+0% $353	+5% $384	+10% $415
Rate	-1.0pp $376	-0.5pp $365	base $353	+0.5pp $342	+1.0pp $330

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,225
• Closing costs: $1,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2025-12-01
   listed $44,900 Active 584-char remark

   Show marketing remark (584 chars)

   Cute little cottage just off of Secord Lake! Check out this 1 bedroom, 1 bath cottage with a cozy feel. The cottage has a covered porch and 2 sheds for some extra storage. A small yard with very little yard work so you can enjoy more time making memories. There is an easement for this property that you can go right down to the waters edge and kayak to the Lake. This cottage is just off Wildwood Road and very close to tons of State Land. A perfect little escape from the busy city, with great hunting and trail riding within a few miles. Come check this out today before it's gone!

2. 2019-10-29
   soldstatus $24,999
3. 2019-07-10
   listed $24,999
4. 2014-11-18
   historical
5. 2014-02-19
   historical
6. 2013-08-19
   listed $15,000
7. 2013-08-19
   listed $28,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $156 · $13/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $424 · $35/mo
• Expected delta: +$268/yr (+$22/mo · 171.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,423
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,515
• − Property taxes: −$156
• − Insurance: −$224
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$754
• − Management: −$754
• − Depreciation: −$1,306
• Taxable income: $3,714
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$891
• After-tax cash flow: $3,347/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Branch-Rose City Area Schools
• NCES district ID: 2635850
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $38,145
• Composite: 29.15/100
• National rank: #6580
• State rank: #306 of 540 in MI

Livability — Alger

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,261

Population outlook (Gladwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,440 people
• By 2030: 22,281 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 19,867 · -15.2%
• By 2050: 17,667 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 12,909 · -44.9%
• By 2100: 8,629 · -63.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Gladwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.7) · D 29.1% · R 69.8% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -42.2pp toward R · 2008: 1.5pp · 2024: -40.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.7 2020: R+36.8 2016: R+34.7 2012: R+7.2 2008: D+1.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.02%
• Current HPI: 125.4127
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+199.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-01 Listed $44,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-10-29 Sold (Public Records) $24,999 Public Records
• 2019-07-10 Listed $24,999 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2014-11-18 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2014-02-19 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2013-08-19 Listed $28,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2013-08-19 Listed $15,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $156 · -81.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.