2204 Hawthorne St · Middletown, OH 45042

$140,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 936 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 251 Days on market

Built 1950 $150/sqft · at area comps Est $143k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• ARV discount +8.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very cute cottage home. Three bedrooms, nice kitchen, appliance to remain, large rear yard

Key facts

• Listed 251 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $36 ($437/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (9.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.8% in Middletown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#389 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D+, commute F.
• Middletown City (suburban): math 21% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #610 of 656 in OH (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Miller Ridge Elementary School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,030 of 1,584 statewide, top 66%, 406 students, 0% FRL); Middletown Middle School (math 24% / reading 33%, grade F, #580 of 654 statewide, top 89%, 941 students, 0% FRL); Middletown High School (math 18% / reading 19%, grade F, #683 of 781 statewide, top 88%, 1,753 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 69% district-wide (69 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,163 units permitted in Butler County in 2024 (356 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 251 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 13 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 251 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.11%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $143,054
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: -2.14%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2206 Hawthorne St	0.01mi	3/1.0	936 (0%)	12mo	$143,000	$153	89
3917 Vannest Ave	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	944 (+1%)	1mo	$194,900	$206	83
2116 Spencer Ln	0.40mi	3/1.0	888 (-5%)	6mo	$105,005	$118	67
3516 Jewell St	0.33mi	2/1.0 (-1)	874 (-7%)	3mo	$139,900	$160	66
2225 Hawthorne St	0.09mi	2/1.0 (-1)	832 (-11%)	9mo	$164,000	$197	65
3512 Glencoe Ave	0.28mi	2/1.0 (-1)	858 (-8%)	4mo	$135,000	$157	64
4205 Vannest Ave	0.33mi	3/1.0	840 (-10%)	6mo	$117,900	$140	63
4211 Vannest Ave	0.36mi	2/1.0 (-1)	840 (-10%)	2mo	$169,000	$201	59
2008 Brell Dr	0.47mi	3/1.0	864 (-8%)	9mo	$186,000	$215	58
2003 Lowell St	0.22mi	2/1.0 (-1)	832 (-11%)	11mo	$175,000	$210	57
3416 Tytus Ave	0.29mi	2/1.0 (-1)	845 (-10%)	12mo	$160,000	$189	55
3111 Tytus Ave	0.64mi	2/1.5 (-1)	816 (-13%)	13mo	$157,500	$193	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-20,348
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-14,655
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45042

• Active inventory: 72
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,271 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$175 /mo · $2,103/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $36

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,225

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $116	-5% $76	+0% $36	+5% $-3	+10% $-43
Rent	-10% $-64	-5% $-14	+0% $36	+5% $87	+10% $137
Rate	-1.0pp $107	-0.5pp $72	base $36	+0.5pp $0	+1.0pp $-37

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3018 Tytus Ave Middletown, OH	2.0	1.0	726	$895	$1.23	16d	1	0.70mi
2513 Aspen St Unit 2513A Middletown, OH	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,150	$1.09	16d	1	1.01mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $140,000 Active 251 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 248 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 247 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 246 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 245 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 243 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active 239 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $140,000 Active 238 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $140,000 Active 237 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $140,000 Active 233 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 232 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 231 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 230 DOM
14. 2026-04-09
    status Active 90-char remark

    Show marketing remark (90 chars)

    Very cute cottage home. Three bedrooms, nice kitchen, appliance to remain, large rear yard

15. 2026-04-09
    status Active 90-char remark

    Show marketing remark (90 chars)

    Very cute cottage home. Three bedrooms, nice kitchen, appliance to remain, large rear yard

16. 2026-04-03
    historical Contingency Pending 90-char remark

    Show marketing remark (90 chars)

    Very cute cottage home. Three bedrooms, nice kitchen, appliance to remain, large rear yard

17. 2026-04-03
    status Pending 90-char remark

    Show marketing remark (90 chars)

    Very cute cottage home. Three bedrooms, nice kitchen, appliance to remain, large rear yard

18. 2026-01-06
    price $140,000 90-char remark

    Show marketing remark (90 chars)

    Very cute cottage home. Three bedrooms, nice kitchen, appliance to remain, large rear yard

19. 2026-01-06
    price $140,000 90-char remark

    Show marketing remark (90 chars)

    Very cute cottage home. Three bedrooms, nice kitchen, appliance to remain, large rear yard

20. 2025-10-13
    listed $145,000 Active 90-char remark

    Show marketing remark (90 chars)

    Very cute cottage home. Three bedrooms, nice kitchen, appliance to remain, large rear yard

21. 2025-10-10
    listed $145,000 Active 90-char remark

    Show marketing remark (90 chars)

    Very cute cottage home. Three bedrooms, nice kitchen, appliance to remain, large rear yard

22. 2022-12-02
    soldstatus $129,900 Sold
23. 2022-12-02
    soldstatus $129,900 Closed
24. 2022-12-02
    soldstatus $129,000
25. 2022-11-08
    historical
26. 2022-11-02
    price $129,000
27. 2022-11-02
    historical
28. 2022-10-20
    price $124,900
29. 2022-09-09
    status Active
30. 2022-09-01
    historical Active/Pending
31. 2022-08-12
    listed $132,900 Active
32. 2019-11-08
    soldstatus $72,499
33. 2019-10-31
    soldstatus $72,499 Sold
34. 2019-10-31
    soldstatus $72,499 Closed
35. 2019-10-28
    soldstatus $72,499 Sold
36. 2019-09-11
    historical Active/Pending
37. 2019-09-11
    historical Contingency Pending
38. 2019-08-30
    price $78,500
39. 2019-08-30
    price $78,500
40. 2019-08-22
    listed $89,900 Active
41. 2019-08-22
    listed $89,900 Active
42. 2017-04-10
    historical
43. 2017-03-30
    historical
44. 2017-03-04
    price $69,900
45. 2016-12-06
    price $73,500
46. 2016-11-21
    price $73,500
47. 2016-10-26
    listed $75,000 Active
48. 2016-10-26
    listed $75,000 Active
49. 2006-06-22
    historical
50. 2006-04-21
    listed $77,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,103 · $175/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,144 · $179/mo
• Expected delta: +$40/yr (+$3/mo · 1.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,253
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,103
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,220
• − Management: −$1,220
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$1,905
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$457
• After-tax cash flow: $894/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middletown City
• NCES district ID: 3904440
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $36,650
• Composite: 20.35/100
• National rank: #8605
• State rank: #610 of 656 in OH

Livability — Middletown

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #389
• US rank: #6338

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middletown, OH
• County: Butler County · 381,674 people
• City population: 96,117
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 27,652
• Household income: $69,520
• Rent vs Own: 27.8% rent · 72.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 751.0

Population outlook (Butler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 387,706 people
• By 2030: 392,028 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 395,307 · +2.0%
• By 2050: 391,116 · +0.9%
• By 2075: 378,642 · -2.3%
• By 2100: 343,248 · -11.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Butler

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+26.3) · D 36.4% · R 62.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.6pp · 2024: -26.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+26.3 2020: R+24.0 2016: R+28.3 2012: R+26.2 2008: R+22.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -169.01%
• Current HPI: 217.3827
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+100.3% since first listed

42 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Relisted — Dayton MLS
• 2026-04-09 Relisted — Cincy MLS
• 2026-04-03 Contingent — Cincy MLS
• 2026-04-03 Pending — Dayton MLS
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $140,000 Dayton MLS
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $140,000 Cincy MLS
• 2025-10-13 Listed $145,000 Dayton MLS
• 2025-10-10 Listed $145,000 Cincy MLS
• 2022-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $129,000 Public Records
• 2022-12-02 Sold (MLS) $129,900 Dayton MLS
• 2022-12-02 Sold (MLS) $129,900 Dayton MLS
• 2022-11-08 Rental Removed — RENT.
• 2022-11-02 Listing Removed — Dayton MLS
• 2022-11-02 Price Changed $129,000 Dayton MLS
• 2022-10-20 Price Changed $124,900 Dayton MLS
• 2022-09-09 Relisted — Dayton MLS
• 2022-09-01 Contingent — Dayton MLS
• 2022-08-12 Listed $132,900 Dayton MLS
• 2019-11-08 Sold (Public Records) $72,499 Public Records
• 2019-10-31 Sold (MLS) $72,499 Dayton MLS
• 2019-10-31 Sold (MLS) $72,499 Dayton MLS
• 2019-10-28 Sold (MLS) $72,499 Cincy MLS
• 2019-09-11 Contingent — Dayton MLS
• 2019-09-11 Contingent — Cincy MLS
• 2019-08-30 Price Changed $78,500 Dayton MLS
• 2019-08-30 Price Changed $78,500 Cincy MLS
• 2019-08-22 Listed $89,900 Cincy MLS
• 2019-08-22 Listed $89,900 Dayton MLS
• 2017-04-10 Listing Removed — Cincy MLS
• 2017-03-30 Listing Removed — Dayton MLS
• 2017-03-04 Price Changed $69,900 Cincy MLS
• 2016-12-06 Price Changed $73,500 Dayton MLS
• 2016-11-21 Price Changed $73,500 Cincy MLS
• 2016-10-26 Listed $75,000 Dayton MLS
• 2016-10-26 Listed $75,000 Cincy MLS
• 2006-06-22 Listing Removed — Cincy MLS
• 2006-04-21 Listed $77,500 Cincy MLS
• 2004-11-29 Sold (MLS) $50,000 Cincy MLS
• 2004-06-25 Listed $55,000 Cincy MLS
• 2001-08-22 Sold (Public Records) $67,400 Public Records
• 2001-08-17 Sold (MLS) $67,400 Cincy MLS
• 2001-06-19 Listed $69,900 Cincy MLS

Property tax history

+9.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,103 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.