5210 Chestnut Dr · Alexandria, LA 71301

$142,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,309 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 85 Days on market

Built 1965 0.28 ac lot $108/sqft · 5% below area Est $159k · 10% under ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.4/30.0
• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath property offers the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and timeless appeal. Nestled in a well-established neighborhood, you'll love the sense of community and convenience this home provides. Step inside to find a warm and inviting interior featuring beautiful wood floors paired with cozy carpeted spaces for added comfort. The kitchen is designed for both everyday living and entertaining, complete with a breakfast bar for morning coffee, quick meals, or gathering with family and friends. Outside, enjoy a fully fenced backyard-for pets, play, or relaxing evenings. Covered parking adds convenience and protection from the elements, while additional storage space ensures everything has its place. This home truly checks all the boxes for comfortable living in a desirable location. Don't miss your opportunity to make it yours-schedule your private tour today and see all this home has to offer!

Key facts

• 0.28 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1965

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $142k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $263 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $142k).
• Recommended offer: $133k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 4.9% in Alexandria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#160 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Rapides Parish (urban): math 29% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #31 of 98 in LA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 151 active listings in the ZIP; 239 units permitted in Rapides Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $982 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rapides County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $133,480 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.94%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $158,642
• List price: $142,000
• Delta: -10.49%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3815 Ellis St	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,434 (+10%)	4mo	$149,000	$104	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-6,281
• Equity at exit: $21,173

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $15,977
• Equity at exit: $12,278

Cash invested: $39,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71301

• Home prices YoY: -23.0%
• Active inventory: 151
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,459 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$745
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,031/yr
• Insurance: −$59
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $263

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,126

Max offer price $142,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $344	-5% $303	+0% $263	+5% $223	+10% $183
Rent	-10% $148	-5% $206	+0% $263	+5% $321	+10% $378
Rate	-1.0pp $335	-0.5pp $299	base $263	+0.5pp $226	+1.0pp $189

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,500
• Closing costs: $4,260
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $142,000 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $142,000 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $142,000 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $142,000 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $142,000 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $142,000 Active 79 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $142,000 Active 78 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $142,000 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $142,000 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $142,000 Active 74 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $142,000 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $142,000 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $142,000 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $142,000 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $142,000 Active 66 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $142,000 Active 65 DOM
17. 2026-05-08
    price $142,000 951-char remark

    Show marketing remark (951 chars)

    Welcome home! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath property offers the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and timeless appeal. Nestled in a well-established neighborhood, you'll love the sense of community and convenience this home provides. Step inside to find a warm and inviting interior featuring beautiful wood floors paired with cozy carpeted spaces for added comfort. The kitchen is designed for both everyday living and entertaining, complete with a breakfast bar for morning coffee, quick meals, or gathering with family and friends. Outside, enjoy a fully fenced backyard-for pets, play, or relaxing evenings. Covered parking adds convenience and protection from the elements, while additional storage space ensures everything has its place. This home truly checks all the boxes for comfortable living in a desirable location. Don't miss your opportunity to make it yours-schedule your private tour today and see all this home has to offer!

18. 2026-04-17
    price $149,900 951-char remark

    Show marketing remark (951 chars)

    Welcome home! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath property offers the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and timeless appeal. Nestled in a well-established neighborhood, you'll love the sense of community and convenience this home provides. Step inside to find a warm and inviting interior featuring beautiful wood floors paired with cozy carpeted spaces for added comfort. The kitchen is designed for both everyday living and entertaining, complete with a breakfast bar for morning coffee, quick meals, or gathering with family and friends. Outside, enjoy a fully fenced backyard-for pets, play, or relaxing evenings. Covered parking adds convenience and protection from the elements, while additional storage space ensures everything has its place. This home truly checks all the boxes for comfortable living in a desirable location. Don't miss your opportunity to make it yours-schedule your private tour today and see all this home has to offer!

19. 2026-03-26
    listed $159,900 Active 951-char remark

    Show marketing remark (951 chars)

    Welcome home! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath property offers the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and timeless appeal. Nestled in a well-established neighborhood, you'll love the sense of community and convenience this home provides. Step inside to find a warm and inviting interior featuring beautiful wood floors paired with cozy carpeted spaces for added comfort. The kitchen is designed for both everyday living and entertaining, complete with a breakfast bar for morning coffee, quick meals, or gathering with family and friends. Outside, enjoy a fully fenced backyard-for pets, play, or relaxing evenings. Covered parking adds convenience and protection from the elements, while additional storage space ensures everything has its place. This home truly checks all the boxes for comfortable living in a desirable location. Don't miss your opportunity to make it yours-schedule your private tour today and see all this home has to offer!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,031 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,031 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,514
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,954
• − Property taxes: −$1,031
• − Insurance: −$710
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,401
• − Management: −$1,401
• − Depreciation: −$4,131
• Taxable income: $885
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$212
• After-tax cash flow: $2,946/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rapides Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201290
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -29.00%
• Median HH income: $41,057
• Composite: 30.68/100
• National rank: #6179
• State rank: #31 of 98 in LA

Livability — Alexandria

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #160
• US rank: #13698

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alexandria, LA
• City population: 25,138
• Population (ZIP): 17,266

Population outlook (Rapides County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 133,047 people
• By 2030: 132,333 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 129,355 · -2.8%
• By 2050: 124,535 · -6.4%
• By 2075: 110,338 · -17.1%
• By 2100: 88,641 · -33.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 53% White 36% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Portuguese 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rapides

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.8) · D 31.0% · R 67.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.1pp toward R · 2008: -28.7pp · 2024: -36.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.8 2020: R+32.1 2016: R+32.5 2012: R+29.6 2008: R+28.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.38%
• Current HPI: 184.9889
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

-11.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $142,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $149,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $159,900 AcadianaMLS

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,031 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.