6 Church Ave · Germantown, NY 12526

$375,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 950 sqft · SingleFamily · 44 Days on market

Built 1870 6,534 sqft lot $395/sqft · 22% below area Est $480k · 22% under ↓ 56% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Located in the charming Hudson River Hamlet of Germantown, this perfect little three-bedroom house is now available for the first time in fifty years. Built in the late nineteenth-century, this sweet cottage is set behind a white picket fence and features a covered front porch spanning the full width of the house. Enter through the stair hall and then into the bright ground floor rooms; a living room , a dining area and a large kitchen. Upstairs are three bedrooms, a fu bath and a shared hallway closet. The lower-level workroom with a decorative tin ceiling has full windows and a door to a covered back porch. The expansive rear yard is anchored by a magnificent and ancient Catalpa tree offe

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• Built 1870
• Listed 43 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Nearby restaurants; Street lights in the community

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well water; 150 Amp electric service; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family house; Residential property
• Construction: Wood siding; Stone foundation; Metal roof; Approximately 950 above-grade finished area with about 300 below-grade finished area
• Exterior features: Front porch; Rear porch; Back yard; Front yard; Has a view; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heating (oil)
• Interior features: Wood window frames; Partially finished walk-out basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-292 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $333k (11.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $291k (22.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $291k (22.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#441 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Germantown Central School District (rural): math 54% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #387 of 755 in NY (top 51%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Germantown Elementary School (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 276 students, 41% FRL); Germantown Junior-Senior High School (math 57% / reading 54%, grade C, #905 of 1,100 statewide, top 83%, 209 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $40k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $38k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$64k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($364k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1870 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $291,027 (22.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1870 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.34%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $480,468
• List price: $375,000
• Delta: -21.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
457 County Route 8	0.71mi	2/1.0 (-1)	906 (-5%)	21mo	$121,000	$134	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.77×
• Total profit: $185,654
• Equity at exit: $337,830

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.35×
• Total profit: $561,454
• Equity at exit: $728,543

Cash invested: $105,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12526

• Home prices YoY: 8.9%
• Active inventory: 40
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,910 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$469 /mo · $5,625/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$611
• Net cashflow: $-292

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,280

Max offer price $332,685

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-33	-5% $-163	+0% $-292	+5% $-422	+10% $-552
Rent	-10% $-522	-5% $-407	+0% $-292	+5% $-177	+10% $-63
Rate	-1.0pp $-104	-0.5pp $-197	base $-292	+0.5pp $-390	+1.0pp $-488

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,750
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $375,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $375,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $375,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $375,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $375,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $375,000 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $375,000 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $375,000 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $375,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $375,000 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $375,000 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $375,000 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $375,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $375,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $375,000 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $375,000 Active 23 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $375,000 Active 22 DOM
18. 2026-05-13
    price $375,000 1003-char remark
19. 2026-05-07
    listed $849,000 Active 1003-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,923
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,006
• − Property taxes: −$5,625
• − Insurance: −$1,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,794
• − Management: −$2,794
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable loss: −$10,079
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,419
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,090/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Germantown Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3612030
• Math proficiency: 54% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,242
• Composite: 47.76/100
• National rank: #4894
• State rank: #387 of 755 in NY

Livability — Germantown

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #441
• US rank: #7728

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Germantown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 3,427

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,662 people
• By 2030: 56,557 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 51,324 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 45,790 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 35,232 · -39.9%
• By 2100: 25,846 · -55.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: D (+14.7) · D 57.4% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.3pp toward D · 2008: 13.4pp · 2024: 14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.7 2020: D+16.7 2016: D+1.4 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 41.93%
• Current HPI: 511.9627
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-55.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $375,000 HVCRMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $849,000 HVCRMLS