804 19th St · Bay City, MI 48708

$104,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 976 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1890 4,791 sqft lot $107/sqft · 48% above area Est $87k · 21% over ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.1/30.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 1,200 square foot 3 bedroom 1 & 1/2 bath home with basement and 1.5 car garage new in 2025 with fenced yard that has been freshly seeded. Formal dining and eat-in kitchen, 1 first floor bedroom, 1st floor up-dated laundry, most windows replaced, central air and a full front porch! Newer roof too.

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1890

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with electricity; Approximately 1.5 parking spaces in garage
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Public / community water; Public sanitary sewer and storm sewer
• Home design: Residential property; 1 1/2-story structure; Built in 1890
• Construction: Full basement foundation
• Exterior features: Aluminum exterior; Fenced yard (owned fence); Porch; Sidewalks; City limits location; Road frontage (50'); Outbuilding: garage(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen (approx. 14 x 12); Dishwasher; Range/oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: First-floor bedroom; Two upstairs bedrooms (one about 13 x 12 with wood flooring; the other about 10 x 9 with vinyl flooring); One first-floor bedroom (approx. W=8) with carpet
• Flooring: Wood flooring in primary upstairs bedroom; Vinyl flooring in one upstairs bedroom, kitchen, and laundry; Carpet in living room and one bedroom
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main floor; One lavatory in the basement (two baths/lavatories total)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Gas water heater; Central A/C
• Interior features: Seven total rooms; Basement (full, block); Basement lavatory
• Laundry & utility: First-floor laundry / utility room (approx. 8 x 6); Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $91 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $100k (4.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $100k (4.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, crime F, commute F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Washington Elementary School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,203 of 1,397 statewide, top 87%, 395 students, 93% FRL); Handy Middle School (math 17% / reading 33%, grade F, #387 of 493 statewide, top 78%, 685 students, 79% FRL); Bay City Central High School (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #372 of 713 statewide, top 56%, 1,033 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 44% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 150 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $725 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $99,730 (4.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.73%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $86,970
• List price: $104,900
• Delta: 20.62%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
605 19th St	0.10mi	3/1.0 (+1)	930 (-5%)	1mo	$49,000	$53	82
610 15th St	0.23mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (-2%)	3mo	$107,000	$111	79
732 S Madison Ave	0.07mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,068 (+9%)	3mo	$117,100	$110	74
720 S Sherman St	0.39mi	2/1.0	920 (-6%)	2mo	$232,000	$252	70
1017 S Lincoln St	0.55mi	2/1.0	936 (-4%)	4mo	$87,900	$94	64
406 Stanton St	0.49mi	2/1.0	1,044 (+7%)	2mo	$66,500	$64	64
1010 13th St	0.47mi	2/1.0	1,048 (+7%)	4mo	$65,000	$62	62
716 S Farragut St	0.33mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,075 (+10%)	5mo	$75,000	$70	58
820 Michigan Ave	0.63mi	2/1.0	864 (-12%)	0mo	$42,500	$49	51
801 Wilson St	0.67mi	2/1.0	853 (-13%)	1mo	$114,900	$135	47
1609 S VanBuren St	0.66mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,104 (+13%)	5mo	$50,000	$45	36
401 S Hampton St	0.71mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,100 (+13%)	6mo	$110,000	$100	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-11,188
• Equity at exit: $15,641

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-2,266
• Equity at exit: $9,070

Cash invested: $29,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48708

• Home prices YoY: -30.9%
• Active inventory: 150
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $997 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$550
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,233/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$209
• Net cashflow: $91

Break-even live

Break-even rent $882

Max offer price $104,900

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $151	-5% $121	+0% $91	+5% $62	+10% $32
Rent	-10% $12	-5% $52	+0% $91	+5% $131	+10% $170
Rate	-1.0pp $144	-0.5pp $118	base $91	+0.5pp $64	+1.0pp $36

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,225
• Closing costs: $3,147
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
600 18th St Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$950	$0.95	45d	1	0.14mi
800 McKinley St Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	796	$925	$1.16	45d	1	0.82mi
403 Polk St Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	748	$1,000	$1.34	45d	1	1.01mi
605 E Jane St Bay City, MI	1.0	1.0	754	$1,650	$2.19	45d	1	1.34mi
1305 Washington Ave Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	635	$1,675	$2.64	45d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $104,900 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $104,900 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $104,900 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $104,900 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $104,900 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $104,900 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $104,900 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $104,900 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,900 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $109,900 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $109,900 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $109,900 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $114,900 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $114,900 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $114,900 Active 39 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $114,900 Active 38 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $114,900 Active 37 DOM
18. 2026-05-05
    price $119,900 308-char remark
19. 2026-04-23
    listed $124,900 Active 308-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,233 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,424 · $119/mo
• Expected delta: +$191/yr (+$16/mo · 15.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,968
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,876
• − Property taxes: −$1,233
• − Insurance: −$524
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$957
• − Management: −$957
• − Depreciation: −$3,052
• Taxable loss: −$633
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$152
• After-tax cash flow: $1,247/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City School District
• NCES district ID: 2604260
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,833
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #6743
• State rank: #317 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #8912

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, MI
• County: Bay County · 36,975 people
• City population: 25,635
• Metro: Bay City, MI
• Population (ZIP): 25,635
• Household income: $50,518
• Rent vs Own: 29.9% rent · 70.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 528.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,476 people
• By 2030: 98,152 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 89,711 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 80,614 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 60,544 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 41,603 · -59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 17% Lithuanian 7% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 42.0% · R 56.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+12.6 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.21%
• Current HPI: 183.5774
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Bay City, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-16.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $104,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $109,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-24 Price Changed $114,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $119,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $124,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,233 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.