145 Holly Dr · Onalaska, TX 77360

$39,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 65 Days on market

Built 2008 0.33 ac lot $55/sqft · 44% below area Est $71k · 44% under $8/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 37% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

"fixer-upper" Investor Special — Rebuild • Restore • Renovate Perfect for investors, contractors, or DIYers: a fixer-upper minutes from Livingston and the Trinity River with strong potential as a short-term rental. Whether you’re creating a cozy starter home, rustic cabin getaway, or income-producing property, this parcel offers location, and upside. Bring your contractor and your vision to restore this gem to its full potential.. Call for more information.

Key facts

• Cabin getaway
• Off-grid retreat
• 0.33 acre lot

Tags

• CABIN GETAWAY
• OFF-GRID RETREAT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $354 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($804 rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $37k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.0% vs local median 2.8% in Onalaska — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,055 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, schools D.
• Onalaska ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 352 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 769 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33 of equity ($273 loan paydown + $-240 appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Polk County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-0.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($37k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $37,130 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.41%
• DSCR: 2.71
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $70,527
• List price: $39,500
• Delta: -43.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
407 S Canyon Dr Dr	0.29mi	2/1.0 (+1)	728 (+1%)	14mo	$35,000	$48	68
230 Holly Dr	0.07mi	2/1.0 (+1)	784 (+9%)	16mo	$50,000	$64	64
141 Alabama	0.46mi	1/1.0	704 (-2%)	19mo	$134,900	$192	59
304 Popular St	0.58mi	1/1.0	652 (-9%)	8mo	$100,000	$153	50
305 Red Oak	0.50mi	2/1.5 (+1)	784 (+9%)	14mo	$99,900	$127	43
172 James St	0.67mi	1/1.0	660 (-8%)	17mo	$69,900	$106	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.61% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.83×
• Total profit: $20,290
• Equity at exit: $10,282

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.59×
• Total profit: $50,723
• Equity at exit: $11,448

Cash invested: $11,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77360

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 352
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $804 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$207
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$49 /mo · $592/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$169
• Net cashflow: $354

Break-even live

Break-even rent $356

Max offer price $39,500

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $381	-5% $368	+0% $354	+5% $340	+10% $327
Rent	-10% $290	-5% $322	+0% $354	+5% $386	+10% $417
Rate	-1.0pp $374	-0.5pp $364	base $354	+0.5pp $344	+1.0pp $333

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,875
• Closing costs: $1,185
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
210 H Pickens Rd Unit 4 Onalaska, TX	1.0	1.0	430	$905	$2.10	45d	1	0.75mi
281 Elk St Onalaska, TX	—	1.0	600	$695	$1.16	22d	1	1.13mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $39,500 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $39,500 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,500 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,500 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,500 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,500 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $39,500 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,500 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $39,500 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $39,500 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $39,500 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $39,500 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $39,500 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $39,500 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,500 Active 46 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,500 Active 45 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,500 Active 44 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $39,500 Active 43 DOM
19. 2026-05-01
    price $39,500 494-char remark

    Show marketing remark (494 chars)

    "fixer-upper" Investor Special — Rebuild • Restore • Renovate Perfect for investors, contractors, or DIYers: a fixer-upper minutes from Livingston and the Trinity River with strong potential as a short-term rental. Whether you’re creating a cozy starter home, rustic cabin getaway, or income-producing property, this parcel offers location, and upside. Bring your contractor and your vision to restore this gem to its full potential.. Call for more information.

20. 2026-04-16
    listed $45,000 Active 494-char remark

    Show marketing remark (494 chars)

    "fixer-upper" Investor Special — Rebuild • Restore • Renovate Perfect for investors, contractors, or DIYers: a fixer-upper minutes from Livingston and the Trinity River with strong potential as a short-term rental. Whether you’re creating a cozy starter home, rustic cabin getaway, or income-producing property, this parcel offers location, and upside. Bring your contractor and your vision to restore this gem to its full potential.. Call for more information.

21. 2025-08-13
    historical
22. 2024-10-10
    listed $63,000 Active
23. 2022-02-18
    soldstatus
24. 2022-02-18
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,645
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,213
• − Property taxes: −$592
• − Insurance: −$198
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$772
• − Management: −$772
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$1,149
• Taxable income: $3,854
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$925
• After-tax cash flow: $3,323/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Onalaska ISD
• NCES district ID: 4833690
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $38,882
• Composite: 40.91/100
• National rank: #3616
• State rank: #213 of 826 in TX

Livability — Onalaska

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1055
• US rank: #18716

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Onalaska, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,130

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,049 people
• By 2030: 53,243 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 56,528 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 59,243 · +16.1%
• By 2075: 63,528 · +24.4%
• By 2100: 60,376 · +18.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 20.2% · R 79.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+54.5 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+48.2 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.61%
• Current HPI: 150.9486
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-37.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $39,500 HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $45,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-10-10 Listed $63,000 HARMLS
• 2022-02-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-02-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,265 · +14.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.