18026 N Cave Creek Rd #63 · Phoenix, AZ 85032

$40,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured · 52 Days on market

Built 1998 Fair condition 1,120 sqft lot $36/sqft · 58% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

COMPLEX IS AGE RESTRICTED 55+ / Same owner last 19 years. Well Maintained New shower installed in 2024, AC replaced in about 2021 - 2022 and is serviced every 6 months. Furniture to convey with property see list in documents section. Separate Workshop with electricity on west side of unit.

Key facts

• Ac replaced
• New shower installed
• 1,120 sq ft lot

Tags

• NEW SHOWER INSTALLED
• AC REPLACED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 38.5% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #56 of 249 in AZ (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 337 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $38,800 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 38.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 115.11%
• DSCR: 6.12
• GRM: 1.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $94,500
• List price: $40,000
• Delta: -57.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18026 N Cave Creek Rd #125	0.00mi	2/1.0	960 (-14%)	1mo	$35,000	$36	71
2140 E Michigan Ave #35	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	990 (-12%)	1mo	$98,000	$99	67
2034 E Charleston Ave	0.27mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,156 (+3%)	13mo	$276,000	$239	66
18026 N Cave Creek Rd #16	0.09mi	2/1.0	952 (-15%)	3mo	$49,000	$51	64
2131 E Union Hills Dr Unit M5	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+7%)	12mo	$72,000	$60	62
17827 N 19th St	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,096 (-2%)	12mo	$130,000	$119	58
1802 E Campo Bello Dr #29	0.56mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,232 (+10%)	4mo	$80,000	$65	49
1939 E Libby St	0.44mi	2/2.0	980 (-12%)	13mo	$175,000	$179	48
1955 E Grovers Ave #9	0.46mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+11%)	14mo	$79,000	$63	48
2701 E Utopia Rd #66	0.72mi	2/2.0	1,024 (-9%)	10mo	$50,000	$49	44
19225 N Cave Creek Rd #45	0.74mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+11%)	11mo	$47,900	$38	38
2701 E Utopia Rd #8	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	984 (-12%)	14mo	$72,000	$73	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.09×
• Total profit: $56,962
• Equity at exit: $5,964

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.58×
• Total profit: $118,455
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85032

• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 1.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,710 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $600/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $1,074

Break-even live

Break-even rent $350

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 32%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18202 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	722	$1,148	$1.59	3d	7	0.13mi
2077 E Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	720	$1,295	$1.80	24d	1	0.20mi
2067 E Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	840	$1,395	$1.66	24d	1	0.22mi
17602 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	650	$1,625	$2.50	2d	13	0.25mi
18416 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	786	$3,000	$3.81	3d	9	0.26mi
2221 E Union Hills Dr #158 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1332	$2,100	$1.58	18d	1	0.28mi
18416 N Cave Creek Rd Unit 6 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	748	$1,250	$1.67	7d	1	0.29mi
2554 E Villa Rita Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1118	$2,750	$2.46	24d	1	0.38mi
2602 E Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1426	$2,100	$1.47	24d	1	0.42mi
18660 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	961	$1,622	$1.69	1d	11	0.44mi
17150 N 23rd St #135 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5	1186	$1,900	$1.60	14d	1	0.49mi
17365 N Cave Creek Rd #124 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1468	$2,299	$1.57	14d	1	0.50mi
2150 E Bell Rd #1102 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1462	$1,945	$1.33	14d	1	0.55mi
17150 N 23rd St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0–2.5	1172	$1,712	$1.46	4d	2	0.57mi
17150 N 23rd St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0–2.5	1172	$1,712	$1.46	3d	2	0.57mi
2755 E Michigan Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1316	$2,700	$2.05	17d	1	0.60mi
1717 E Union Hills Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1245	$1,775	$1.43	21d	4	0.65mi
1717 E Union Hills Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1169	$1,675	$1.43	2d	3	0.65mi
1717 E Union Hills Dr #1052 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1160	$4,000	$3.45	43d	1	0.73mi
1814 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1003	$1,637	$1.63	1d	12	0.73mi
17606 N 17th Pl Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1463	$1,999	$1.37	2d	3	0.74mi
17606 N 17th Pl Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.5	1472	$1,999	$1.36	12d	3	0.74mi
1702 E Michelle Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1300	$2,200	$1.69	4d	1	0.76mi
1920 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1391	$1,795	$1.29	2d	3	0.80mi
1920 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1391	$1,695	$1.22	13d	5	0.80mi
1920 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1391	$1,800	$1.29	7d	4	0.80mi
16635 N Cave Creek Rd #214 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1134	$1,300	$1.15	19d	1	0.84mi
2335 E Utopia Rd Unit 16 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1426	$2,550	$1.79	18d	1	0.86mi
16602 N 25th St #109 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1136	$1,224	$1.08	20d	1	0.87mi
16602 N 25th St #109 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1136	$1,224	$1.08	24d	1	0.87mi
16801 N 26th St Apt 17 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,195	$1.49	24d	1	0.87mi
2214 E Aire Libre Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1284	$2,080	$1.62	5d	1	0.87mi
16627 N 25th St Unit 23 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	765	$1,145	$1.50	24d	1	0.88mi
1750 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	700	$1,349	$1.93	24d	1	0.89mi
1302 E Aire Libre Ave Unit 104 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1254	$1,850	$1.48	24d	1	0.89mi
2336 E Utopia Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.5	1327	$2,395	$1.80	5d	1	0.90mi
2712 E Juniper Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1435	$1,435	$1.00	4d	1	0.91mi
1702 E Bell Rd #180 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1358	$2,000	$1.47	24d	1	0.96mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$942	$1.35	21d	1	1.01mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$1,159	$1.66	24d	1	1.01mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $40,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $40,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $66,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $66,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $66,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $66,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $66,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $66,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $66,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $66,000 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $66,000 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-04-23
    price $66,000 292-char remark

    Show marketing remark (292 chars)

    COMPLEX IS AGE RESTRICTED 55+ / Same owner last 19 years. Well Maintained New shower installed in 2024, AC replaced in about 2021 - 2022 and is serviced every 6 months. Furniture to convey with property see list in documents section. Separate Workshop with electricity on west side of unit.

13. 2026-04-22
    listed $63,000 Active 292-char remark

    Show marketing remark (292 chars)

    COMPLEX IS AGE RESTRICTED 55+ / Same owner last 19 years. Well Maintained New shower installed in 2024, AC replaced in about 2021 - 2022 and is serviced every 6 months. Furniture to convey with property see list in documents section. Separate Workshop with electricity on west side of unit.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥110°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,519
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$600
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,642
• − Management: −$1,642
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $13,032
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,128
• After-tax cash flow: $9,765/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This mobile home requires moderate repairs and maintenance, with potential for significant value increase through updates.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Ceiling fan in living room — Visible wear
• Minor Ceiling fan in bedroom — Visible wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting and updating interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Upgrading flooring — Improves comfort and resale value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Ceiling fan in living room · Visible wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Ceiling fan in bedroom · Visible wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting and updating interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Upgrading flooring — Improves comfort and resale value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paradise Valley Unified District (4241)
• NCES district ID: 0405930
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $64,106
• Composite: 37.89/100
• National rank: #4316
• State rank: #56 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 70,839
• Household income: $78,643
• Rent vs Own: 42.2% rent · 57.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2887.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 17% Asian 4% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 21% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -488.65%
• Current HPI: 339.4181
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.46%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+4.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $66,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $63,000 ARMLS