14134 Shadow Bay Dr · Conroe, TX 77318

$105,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 92 Days on market

Built 2000 4,024 sqft lot $86/sqft · 24% above area Est $85k · 24% over $26/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 Bedroom 2 bath mobile home in quite mobile home community with Hoa. The community offers park and access to Lake Conroe. Home has been recently painted and new flooring throughout. Great location close to dining and entertainment.

Key facts

• New flooring
• Close to dining
• Recently painted

Tags

• ACCESS TO LAKE CONROE
• RECENTLY PAINTED
• NEW FLOORING
• CLOSE TO DINING
• CLOSE TO ENTERTAINMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $971 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $96k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.4% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1189 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $95,550 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.63%
• DSCR: 2.76
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $85,000
• List price: $105,000
• Delta: 23.53%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13712 Lookout Ct	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-5%)	5mo	$70,000	$61	74
13253 Enchanted Ct	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-1%)	2mo	$72,000	$60	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.31×
• Total profit: $38,602
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.03×
• Total profit: $89,204
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1189
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,131 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$92 /mo · $1,107/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$26
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $971

Break-even live

Break-even rent $902

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14156 Shadow Bay Dr Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$2,195	$1.53	1d	1	0.13mi
14214 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	43d	1	0.76mi
14190 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,795	$1.28	3d	1	0.77mi
9743 Black Gum Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	2d	1	1.40mi
9745 Black Gum Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	43d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $26 · $312/yr

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 92 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $105,000 Active 83 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $105,000 Active 82 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $105,000 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $105,000 Active 78 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $105,000 Active 77 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $105,000 Active 76 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,000 Active 75 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 74 DOM
14. 2026-04-28
    price $105,000 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    3 Bedroom 2 bath mobile home in quite mobile home community with Hoa. The community offers park and access to Lake Conroe. Home has been recently painted and new flooring throughout. Great location close to dining and entertainment.

15. 2026-04-07
    price $110,000 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    3 Bedroom 2 bath mobile home in quite mobile home community with Hoa. The community offers park and access to Lake Conroe. Home has been recently painted and new flooring throughout. Great location close to dining and entertainment.

16. 2026-03-18
    listed $115,000 Active 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    3 Bedroom 2 bath mobile home in quite mobile home community with Hoa. The community offers park and access to Lake Conroe. Home has been recently painted and new flooring throughout. Great location close to dining and entertainment.

17. 2024-10-07
    historical
18. 2024-10-04
    historical $1,300
19. 2024-09-21
    listed $1,300
20. 2024-09-20
    listed $135,000 Active
21. 2023-11-11
    historical
22. 2023-11-08
    price $110,000
23. 2023-10-10
    price $120,000
24. 2023-09-21
    listed $125,000 Active
25. 2006-07-19
    soldstatus
26. 2002-03-07
    soldstatus
27. 1999-10-12
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,107 · $92/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,922 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: +$815/yr (+$68/mo · 73.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,572
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$1,107
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,046
• − Management: −$2,046
• − HOA: −$312
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $10,601
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,544
• After-tax cash flow: $9,107/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 279.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-16.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $105,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $110,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-18 Listed $115,000 HARMLS
• 2024-10-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-10-04 Rental Removed $1,300 HARMLS
• 2024-09-21 Listed for Rent $1,300 HARMLS
• 2024-09-20 Listed $135,000 HARMLS
• 2023-11-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-11-08 Price Changed $110,000 HARMLS
• 2023-10-10 Price Changed $120,000 HARMLS
• 2023-09-21 Listed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2006-07-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-03-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-10-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,107 · -11.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.