7227 Forest Hl · Coffee City, TX 75763

$59,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 704 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 256 Days on market

Built 1970 $85/sqft · 75% below area $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This two-bedroom two-bath home located in Brierwood subdivision situated on Lake Palestine and is subject to amenities offered by the community.

Key facts

• Amenities offered
• Lake palestine
• Built 1970

Tags

• BRIERWOOD SUBDIVISION
• LAKE PALESTINE
• AMENITIES OFFERED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $410 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $53k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.8% vs local median 3.0% in Coffee City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#845 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Brownsboro ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #290 of 826 in TX (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 191 active listings in the ZIP; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($414 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 256 days — a 12% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 71% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $52,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 256 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.06%
• DSCR: 2.52
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $243,330
• List price: $59,900
• Delta: -75.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 46.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.50×
• Total profit: $58,758
• Equity at exit: $53,963

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.5%
• Equity multiple: 10.10×
• Total profit: $152,608
• Equity at exit: $116,373

Cash invested: $16,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75763

• Home prices YoY: 22.2%
• Active inventory: 191
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,103 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$314
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $522/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$232
• Net cashflow: $410

Break-even live

Break-even rent $585

Max offer price $59,900

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,975
• Closing costs: $1,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $59,900 Active 256 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $59,900 Active 255 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $59,900 Active 254 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $59,900 Active 253 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $59,900 Active 252 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $59,900 Active 250 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $59,900 Active 249 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $59,900 Active 247 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $59,900 Active 246 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $59,900 Active 245 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $59,900 Active 244 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $59,900 Active 239 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $59,900 Active 238 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,900 Active 237 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $59,900 Active 236 DOM
16. 2026-04-12
    price $64,900 144-char remark

    Show marketing remark (144 chars)

    This two-bedroom two-bath home located in Brierwood subdivision situated on Lake Palestine and is subject to amenities offered by the community.

17. 2026-02-28
    price $69,900 144-char remark

    Show marketing remark (144 chars)

    This two-bedroom two-bath home located in Brierwood subdivision situated on Lake Palestine and is subject to amenities offered by the community.

18. 2025-11-27
    price $79,900 144-char remark

    Show marketing remark (144 chars)

    This two-bedroom two-bath home located in Brierwood subdivision situated on Lake Palestine and is subject to amenities offered by the community.

19. 2025-10-06
    listed $84,900 Active 144-char remark

    Show marketing remark (144 chars)

    This two-bedroom two-bath home located in Brierwood subdivision situated on Lake Palestine and is subject to amenities offered by the community.

20. 2025-06-30
    historical $1,100
21. 2025-06-07
    listed $1,100
22. 2021-04-15
    soldstatus
23. 2018-10-19
    soldstatus
24. 1998-07-21
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $522 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,096 · $91/mo
• Expected delta: +$574/yr (+$48/mo · 109.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 71% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,241
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,355
• − Property taxes: −$522
• − Insurance: −$1,097
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,059
• − Management: −$1,059
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$1,743
• Taxable income: $4,249
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,020
• After-tax cash flow: $3,896/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brownsboro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811640
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $45,624
• Composite: 37.38/100
• National rank: #4429
• State rank: #290 of 826 in TX

Livability — Coffee City

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #845
• US rank: #15290

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,319

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Iranian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 53.53%
• Current HPI: 295.14
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+5800.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-12 Price Changed $64,900 GTAR
• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $69,900 GTAR
• 2025-11-27 Price Changed $79,900 GTAR
• 2025-10-06 Listed $84,900 GTAR
• 2025-06-30 Rental Removed $1,100 GTAR
• 2025-06-07 Listed for Rent $1,100 GTAR
• 2021-04-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-10-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-07-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $522 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.