6492 Bonanza Dr · Conroe, TX 77316

$209,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1970 0.43 ac lot $156/sqft · at area comps Est $210k · at est. $26/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

On 3 Lots! Surrounded by nature, charming 3 bed, 2 bath home on nearly 1/2 acre in Montgomery TX. Recent updates include a NEW roof. Features include a 2-car carport, fenced yard, covered front/back porch, and a storage/workshop shed. Enjoy community amenities like fishing in Lake Bonanza, swimming pool, golf course, horse stables, and private airstrip, see community website for details. Inside, an open floor plan with a spacious Kitchen and walk-in pantry. Split plan bedrooms and extra storage closet. Located in desirable Montgomery ISD, and close to shopping. Unique access to the fully fenced yard from both Cartwright Rd and Bonanza Dr. Don't miss out on this amazing opportunity! (Choice Home Warranty currently in place)

Key facts

• 2 car carport
• Open floor plan
• Fenced yard

Tags

• 2 CAR CARPORT
• FENCED YARD
• COVERED FRONT BACK PORCH
• STORAGE WORKSHOP SHED
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $209k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $200 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (7.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (7.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2283 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $77k; list at $209k implies a 173% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,331 (7.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.10%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $209,735
• List price: $209,000
• Delta: -0.35%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6492 Bonanza Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	0mo	$209,000	$156	96
6416 Oak Knoll Rd	0.27mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,280 (-5%)	2mo	$199,988	$156	73
5945 Beech Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,345 (+0%)	15mo	$246,000	$183	68
5693 Cessna Dr	0.29mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,480 (+10%)	2mo	$295,000	$199	59
5899 Skylane Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,480 (+10%)	10mo	$232,000	$157	52
6118 Skylane Dr	0.35mi	3/1.5	1,176 (-12%)	19mo	$208,500	$177	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-26,118
• Equity at exit: $31,163

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-25,737
• Equity at exit: $18,071

Cash invested: $58,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2283
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,933 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax from tax record: −$118 /mo · $1,422/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$26
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $200

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,680

Max offer price $209,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,250
• Closing costs: $6,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4777 Holly Ln W Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1704	$1,450	$0.85	18d	1	0.51mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $26 · $312/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-02
   statusdays on market $209,000 Pending 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $209,000 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $209,000 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-04-30
   price $209,000 732-char remark

   Show marketing remark (732 chars)

   On 3 Lots! Surrounded by nature, charming 3 bed, 2 bath home on nearly 1/2 acre in Montgomery TX. Recent updates include a NEW roof. Features include a 2-car carport, fenced yard, covered front/back porch, and a storage/workshop shed. Enjoy community amenities like fishing in Lake Bonanza, swimming pool, golf course, horse stables, and private airstrip, see community website for details. Inside, an open floor plan with a spacious Kitchen and walk-in pantry. Split plan bedrooms and extra storage closet. Located in desirable Montgomery ISD, and close to shopping. Unique access to the fully fenced yard from both Cartwright Rd and Bonanza Dr. Don't miss out on this amazing opportunity! (Choice Home Warranty currently in place)

5. 2026-04-01
   listed $215,000 Active 732-char remark

   Show marketing remark (732 chars)

   On 3 Lots! Surrounded by nature, charming 3 bed, 2 bath home on nearly 1/2 acre in Montgomery TX. Recent updates include a NEW roof. Features include a 2-car carport, fenced yard, covered front/back porch, and a storage/workshop shed. Enjoy community amenities like fishing in Lake Bonanza, swimming pool, golf course, horse stables, and private airstrip, see community website for details. Inside, an open floor plan with a spacious Kitchen and walk-in pantry. Split plan bedrooms and extra storage closet. Located in desirable Montgomery ISD, and close to shopping. Unique access to the fully fenced yard from both Cartwright Rd and Bonanza Dr. Don't miss out on this amazing opportunity! (Choice Home Warranty currently in place)

6. 2024-03-01
   historical $1,400
7. 2024-02-04
   price $1,400
8. 2023-10-26
   listed $1,450
9. 2023-10-12
   historical $1,475
10. 2023-09-11
    price $1,475
11. 2023-08-17
    listed $1,525
12. 2005-04-07
    soldstatus $76,636

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,422 · $118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,825 · $319/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,403/yr (+$200/mo · 169.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,707
• − Property taxes: −$1,422
• − Insurance: −$1,045
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,856
• − Management: −$1,856
• − HOA: −$312
• − Depreciation: −$6,080
• Taxable loss: −$1,078
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$259
• After-tax cash flow: $2,656/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+172.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $209,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2024-03-01 Rental Removed $1,400 HARMLS
• 2024-02-04 Price Changed $1,400 HARMLS
• 2023-10-26 Listed for Rent $1,450 HARMLS
• 2023-10-12 Rental Removed $1,475 HARMLS
• 2023-09-11 Price Changed $1,475 HARMLS
• 2023-08-17 Listed for Rent $1,525 HARMLS
• 2005-04-07 Sold (Public Records) $76,636 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,422 · -14.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.