2746 Columbia Ln #12 · Heber-Overgaard, AZ 85928

$135,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 400 sqft · Manufactured · 39 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition $338/sqft · 6% above area Est $127k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.2/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• ARV discount +4.6/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• Built 2022
• Listed 38 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No HOA; Leased land with $495 monthly lease

Exterior

• Utilities: Septic tank; Individual electric metering; Water available; Sewer available; Power available
• Home design: Park model / RV; Located in Rocky Rim Resort Cabins; City-maintained road
• Exterior features: Patio; Tall pines on property; Covered deck; Front porch; Balcony/Loft

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: Shower
• Heating & cooling: Central A/C; Electric heating
• Interior features: Furnished; Laminate flooring; Shower

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $428 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 3.2% in Heber-Overgaard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Heber-Overgaard Unified District (4392) (rural): math 52% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #51 of 249 in AZ (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,950 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.58%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $126,888
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: 6.39%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 8 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

0.86% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $28,864
• Equity at exit: $45,086

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.24×
• Total profit: $84,535
• Equity at exit: $59,149

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85928

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 156
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,723 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$169 /mo · $2,025/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $428

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,181

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $135,000 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $135,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $135,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $135,000 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 19 DOM
17. 2026-05-11
    listed $135,000 Active
18. 2026-05-02
    historical
19. 2026-04-17
    price $134,900
20. 2026-04-17
    listed $135,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,672
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,025
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,654
• − Management: −$1,654
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $3,175
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$762
• After-tax cash flow: $4,373/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 14 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with a good condition score of 75. It has a cosmetic rehab level and requires minimal repairs and maintenance. The highest-ROI updates would be painting and landscaping to enhance curb appeal and add value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both painting — refreshes the exterior and interior
• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both painting — refreshes the exterior and interior ↑
• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Heber-Overgaard Unified District (4392)
• NCES district ID: 0400026
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $37,916
• Composite: 40.42/100
• National rank: #3727
• State rank: #51 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Heber-Overgaard

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 376

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 6% Slovak 6% Lithuanian 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.86%
• Current HPI: 443.6984
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $135,000 WMMLS
• 2026-05-02 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $134,900 ARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $135,000 ARMLS