628 Ridge Ter · Winter Haven, FL 33881

$169,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,073 sqft · Condo public records · 242 Days on market

Built 1999 $217/mo HOA · 13% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Updated 3-Bed, 2-Bath Condo in a Lakefront Community! Experience easy Florida living in this beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath single-story condo in the desirable Winter Ridge community on Lake Smart. Enjoy new plank floors, an open living area, and a spacious screened-in patio — perfect for morning coffee or evening relaxation. The community offers lake access and a sparkling pool, giving you the best of the Florida lifestyle without the upkeep. Conveniently located near Central Florida’s top attractions and theme parks, this home combines comfort and accessibility. With an affordable HOA and low-maintenance design, it’s a smart move for anyone ready to stop renting and start owning — all while keeping monthly costs manageable. Modern, welcoming, and perfectly located — this condo checks all the right boxes.

Key facts

• Updated condo
• Open living area
• Lake access

Tags

• LAKE ACCESS
• SCREENED IN PATIO
• OPEN LIVING AREA
• UPDATED CONDO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-14 ($-169/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $167k (1.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (2.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fred G. Garner Elementary School (math 29% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,882 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 901 students, 62% FRL); Denison Middle School (math 24% / reading 25%, grade F, #522 of 571 statewide, top 93%, 738 students, 69% FRL); Winter Haven Senior High School (math 26% / reading 38%, grade F, #415 of 667 statewide, top 63%, 2,467 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 495 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 242 days — a 12% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $148,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 242 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.36%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-29,641
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-32,443
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33881

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 495
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,641 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$137 /mo · $1,644/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$217
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $-14

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,659

Max offer price $166,516

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $82	-5% $34	+0% $-14	+5% $-62	+10% $-110
Rent	-10% $-144	-5% $-79	+0% $-14	+5% $51	+10% $116
Rate	-1.0pp $71	-0.5pp $29	base $-14	+0.5pp $-58	+1.0pp $-102

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
350 Winter Ridge Blvd Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1073	$1,425	$1.33	25d	1	0.06mi
502 Winter Ter #121 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1073	$1,550	$1.44	25d	1	0.07mi
242 Winter Ridge Blvd Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1073	$1,350	$1.26	16d	1	0.18mi
245 Winter Ridge Blvd Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1073	$1,550	$1.44	5d	1	0.22mi
2418 Mary Jewett Cir NE Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1287	$1,650	$1.28	5d	1	0.71mi
324 Avenue Y NE Unit B Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	904	$1,550	$1.71	25d	1	0.83mi
140 W Avenue Northwest Apt 3 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	25d	1	1.10mi
2007 9th St NE Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,750	$1.41	25d	1	1.11mi
1830 2nd St NW Winter Haven, FL	3.0	1.0	1075	$1,600	$1.49	25d	1	1.38mi
1730 Broxey Ct NE Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,050	$1.40	25d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $217 · $2,604/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $169,000 Active 242 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,000 Active 239 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,000 Active 238 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,000 Active 237 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,000 Active 236 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 234 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $169,000 Active 231 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,000 Active 230 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,000 Active 229 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,000 Active 228 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $169,000 Active 225 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,000 Active 223 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,000 Active 222 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,000 Active 221 DOM
15. 2025-10-22
    listed $169,000 Active 861-char remark

    Show marketing remark (861 chars)

    Updated 3-Bed, 2-Bath Condo in a Lakefront Community! Experience easy Florida living in this beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath single-story condo in the desirable Winter Ridge community on Lake Smart. Enjoy new plank floors, an open living area, and a spacious screened-in patio — perfect for morning coffee or evening relaxation. The community offers lake access and a sparkling pool, giving you the best of the Florida lifestyle without the upkeep. Conveniently located near Central Florida’s top attractions and theme parks, this home combines comfort and accessibility. With an affordable HOA and low-maintenance design, it’s a smart move for anyone ready to stop renting and start owning — all while keeping monthly costs manageable. Modern, welcoming, and perfectly located — this condo checks all the right boxes.

16. 2023-09-29
    soldstatus $159,000
17. 2006-07-25
    soldstatus $119,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,644 · $137/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,644 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,696
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$1,644
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,576
• − Management: −$1,576
• − HOA: −$2,604
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable loss: −$2,932
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$704
• After-tax cash flow: $535/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winter Haven, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,808
• Household income: $57,024
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1270.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 20% French/Haitian/Cajun 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.95%
• Current HPI: 277.0597
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+41.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-22 Listed $169,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $159,000 Public Records
• 2006-07-25 Sold (Public Records) $119,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,644 · -8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.