829 National Tpke · Munfordville, KY 42765

$85,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,054 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 89 Days on market

Built 1953 0.62 ac lot Est $135k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Seller offering up to $3,000 in buyer closing costs! Welcome to 829 National Turnpike in Munfordville, KY, a 2-bedroom, 1-bath home with 1,054 square feet of living space situated on a 0.62-acre corner lot in Hart County. This property offers a great opportunity for buyers searching for a fixer-upper, investment property, or a home with land in Munfordville. Inside, you'll find a cozy eat-in kitchen that provides a comfortable space for everyday meals. The primary bedroom features a walk-in closet, offering convenient storage. With a little updating and vision, this home has the potential to become a charming residence or investment opportunity. \ Outside, the property is surrounded by bea

Key facts

• Commuter location
• Walk-in closet
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• MATURE TREES
• DETACHED STORAGE SHED
• ELECTRICITY INSTALLED
• COMMUTER LOCATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Storm door(s); Shed(s); Corner lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric water heater
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (electric); Window cooling units
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Accessible full bath

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $227 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($931 rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $80k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 2.8% in Munfordville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#128 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Hart County (rural): math 21% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #119 of 165 in KY (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Munfordville Elementary School (math 27% / reading 44%, grade F, #293 of 676 statewide, top 44%, 492 students, 64% FRL); Hart County High School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #158 of 254 statewide, top 68%, 679 students, 55% FRL).
• Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; 79 units permitted in Hart County in 2024 (60 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $85k implies a 486% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.44%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $134,912
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
171 Mccubbins Ln	0.45mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,152 (+9%)	12mo	$147,500	$128	49
304 E Union St	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,147 (+9%)	19mo	$116,000	$101	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.55×
• Total profit: $60,709
• Equity at exit: $76,575

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.2%
• Equity multiple: 8.03×
• Total profit: $167,346
• Equity at exit: $165,136

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42765

• Home prices YoY: 26.8%
• Active inventory: 48
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $931 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$27 /mo · $329/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$196
• Net cashflow: $227

Break-even live

Break-even rent $644

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $85,000 Pending 89 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 88 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 87 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,000 Active 86 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $85,000 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $85,000 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $85,000 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $85,000 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $85,000 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 78 DOM
11. 2026-05-05
    price $85,000
12. 2026-04-13
    price $88,500
13. 2026-03-13
    listed $90,000 Active
14. 1998-10-01
    soldstatus $14,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $329 · $27/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $731 · $61/mo
• Expected delta: +$402/yr (+$33/mo · 122.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,172
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$329
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$894
• − Management: −$894
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $1,396
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$335
• After-tax cash flow: $2,387/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hart County
• NCES district ID: 2102640
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $34,931
• Composite: 24.28/100
• National rank: #7714
• State rank: #119 of 165 in KY

Livability — Munfordville

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #128
• US rank: #6111

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Munfordville, KY
• Population (ZIP): 7,030

Population outlook (Hart County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,897 people
• By 2030: 19,008 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 19,032 · +0.7%
• By 2050: 18,584 · -1.7%
• By 2075: 17,303 · -8.4%
• By 2100: 14,894 · -21.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Polish 2% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · German/W. Germanic 13% Spanish 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hart

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.0) · D 19.5% · R 79.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.1pp toward R · 2008: -30.9pp · 2024: -60.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.0 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+49.4 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+30.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 77.29%
• Current HPI: 365.6917
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+486.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $85,000 HKARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $88,500 HKARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $90,000 HKARMLS
• 1998-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $14,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $329 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.