1817 Hovenweep Rd · Wesley Chapel, FL 33543

$269,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,673 sqft · Townhouse public records · 5 Days on market

Built 2019 2,003 sqft lot Est $336k · 20% under $154/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Virtually Staged. Welcome home to the highly coveted Union Park. Highly rated schools in all of Wesley Chapel. Sold AS-IS for Seller's Convenience. Seller lives in different state. This smart townhome has 3 brms/2.5 baths/one car garage. Two story block construction which is great for energy efficiency and sound proofing. Other features you don't want to miss; Camera doorbell, tile in wet areas, black appliances, washer and dryer, granite counters in kitchen with upgraded rectangle large sink with upgraded coil faucet, Large walk-in pantry, huge under stairs closet, covered lanai overlooking private backyard, double sinks in master bath, and garage door opener. Priced to sell quickly, don't miss this opportunity. Internet and cable included in monthly HOA fees. Community offers resort style amenities such as 2 pools, fitness center, basketball, dog parks, playground and walking trails. Conveniently located to I-75, Wiregrass Mall, Tampa Premium Outlets, Krate at The Grove and so much more. Priced to sell quickly, don't miss this opportunity.

Key facts

• Tile in wet areas
• Highly rated schools
• Smart townhome

Tags

• HIGHLY RATED SCHOOLS
• SMART TOWNHOME
• ENERGY EFFICIENCY
• SOUND PROOFING
• CAMERA DOORBELL
• TILE IN WET AREAS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-257 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (16.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (10.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.7% in Wesley Chapel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#143 in FL, #2,137 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Double Branch Elementary School (math 58% / reading 62%, grade B-, #680 of 2,144 statewide, top 32%, 847 students, 31% FRL); Dr. John Long Middle School (math 75% / reading 62%, grade A, #72 of 571 statewide, top 13%, 1,349 students, 28% FRL); Wiregrass Ranch High School (math 60% / reading 69%, grade B-, #78 of 667 statewide, top 13%, 2,114 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools average 28% FRL vs 48% district-wide (21 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 51% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Pasco average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 650 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $200k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $224,578 (16.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.07%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $336,273
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1881 Hovenweep Rd	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,673 (0%)	4mo	$260,400	$156	92
1570 Hubbell Rd	0.21mi	3/2.5	1,673 (0%)	2mo	$279,500	$167	86
1869 Hovenweep Rd	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,758 (+5%)	3mo	$285,000	$162	85
32532 Midsummer Night Ln	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,464 (-12%)	1mo	$279,990	$191	45
32556 Midsummer Night Ln	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,463 (-13%)	1mo	$289,990	$198	44
32538 Midsummer Night Ln	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,464 (-12%)	2mo	$294,990	$201	44
32544 Midsummer Night Ln	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,464 (-12%)	2mo	$295,000	$202	44
32540 Midsummer Night Ln	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,464 (-12%)	2mo	$299,990	$205	44
32526 Midsummer Night Ln	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,463 (-13%)	2mo	$319,990	$219	44
32514 Midsummer Night Ln	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,464 (-12%)	3mo	$293,990	$201	43
32502 Midsummer Night Ln	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,463 (-13%)	4mo	$289,990	$198	42
32508 Midsummer Night Ln	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,460 (-13%)	4mo	$299,990	$205	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-66,933
• Equity at exit: $40,243

10-year hold

• IRR: -44.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.40×
• Total profit: $-105,782
• Equity at exit: $23,336

Cash invested: $75,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33543

• Home prices YoY: -24.0%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 650
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,415 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax from tax record: −$483 /mo · $5,792/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$154
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$507
• Net cashflow: $-257

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,740

Max offer price $224,578

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-104	-5% $-180	+0% $-257	+5% $-333	+10% $-409
Rent	-10% $-447	-5% $-352	+0% $-257	+5% $-161	+10% $-66
Rate	-1.0pp $-121	-0.5pp $-188	base $-257	+0.5pp $-326	+1.0pp $-398

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,475
• Closing costs: $8,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1604 Hubbell Rd Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,170	$1.30	26d	1	0.22mi
32794 Pez Landing Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,075	$1.24	1d	1	0.28mi
1550 Ranchette Rd Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1758	$2,300	$1.31	6d	1	0.33mi
1340 Colt Creek Pl Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,800	$1.67	14d	1	0.38mi
1347 Colt Creek Pl Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,150	$1.29	1d	1	0.39mi
1387 Colt Creek Pl Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	3.0	1673	$2,100	$1.26	26d	1	0.43mi
1401 Colt Creek Pl Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	3.0	1673	$2,025	$1.21	25d	1	0.45mi
32447 Weathered Oak Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1560	$2,300	$1.47	26d	1	0.47mi
32871 Brooks Hawk Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.5	2007	$2,800	$1.40	19d	1	0.54mi
32544 Midsummer Night Ln Unit Labs Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,000	$1.37	23d	1	0.66mi
32544 Midsummer Night Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,000	$1.37	14d	1	0.66mi
32544 Midsummer Night Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,000	$1.37	12d	1	0.66mi
32538 Midsummer Night Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1463	$2,199	$1.50	26d	1	0.66mi
32526 Midsummer Night Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1463	$2,300	$1.57	26d	1	0.67mi
2476 Riversong Lodge Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1463	$2,000	$1.37	26d	1	0.68mi
32497 Midsummer Night Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1463	$2,200	$1.50	26d	1	0.69mi
1092 Pipestone Pl Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	2057	$2,650	$1.29	26d	1	0.75mi
2477 Bending Bonsai Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1593	$2,250	$1.41	26d	1	0.78mi
2373 Bending Bonsai Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1593	$2,300	$1.44	26d	1	0.80mi
32305 Lexington St Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1575	$2,450	$1.56	23d	1	0.81mi
32305 Lexington St Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1575	$2,450	$1.56	26d	1	0.81mi
32475 Sugarplum Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1130	$2,750	$2.43	0d	222	0.91mi
3060 Mountain Spruce Ter Wesley Chapel, FL	2.0	2.0	1831	$2,900	$1.58	26d	1	1.20mi
33801 Jasmine Star Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1516	$2,300	$1.52	26d	1	1.30mi
34142 Polacca Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,100	$1.53	26d	1	1.33mi
2187 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	3.0	1373	$1,945	$1.42	16d	1	1.38mi
2313 Alee Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1555	$2,000	$1.29	6d	1	1.39mi
2191 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,999	$1.46	23d	1	1.39mi
2191 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,999	$1.46	26d	1	1.39mi
2191 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,900	$1.38	12d	1	1.39mi
2085 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,200	$1.60	6d	1	1.39mi
2081 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1553	$2,100	$1.35	0d	1	1.39mi
2308 Alee Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,825	$1.33	18d	1	1.41mi
1219 Violetear Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1206	$3,090	$2.56	26d	1	1.45mi
1219 Violetear Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1193	$3,102	$2.60	1d	137	1.45mi
2264 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,000	$1.46	26d	1	1.48mi
31354 Kirkshire Ct Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	3.0	1987	$2,500	$1.26	26d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $154 · $1,848/yr
• Likely covers: internetcablepoolgym

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $269,900 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,900 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   listed $269,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,792 · $483/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,792 · $483/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,981
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,119
• − Property taxes: −$5,792
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,318
• − Management: −$2,318
• − HOA: −$1,848
• − Depreciation: −$7,852
• Taxable loss: −$7,615
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,828
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,251/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wesley Chapel

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #143
• US rank: #2137

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wesley Chapel, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 100,771
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,648
• Household income: $107,349
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 407.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 15% Black 12% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.13%
• Current HPI: 263.2513
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.37%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+29.8% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $269,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-03 Rental Removed $2,200 STELLARMLS
• 2023-08-01 Listed for Rent $2,200 STELLARMLS
• 2019-09-09 Sold (Public Records) $199,990 Public Records
• 2019-09-09 Sold (MLS) $199,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-30 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-23 Price Changed $199,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-23 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-29 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-25 Price Changed $205,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-03-22 Price Changed $204,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-03-18 Price Changed $203,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-03-14 Price Changed $202,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-03-01 Price Changed $201,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-15 Price Changed $200,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-12 Listed $207,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+25.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,792 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.