1576 N Roberts Rd · Muskegon, MI 49445

$290,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,571 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1972 Est $272k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +4.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Three bedroom home in the Reeths-Puffer School district. This convenient location is across from the High School and close to the Intermediate and Elementary Schools. This home sits on a very large lot with an extra two stall garage out back. A sunroom is attached to the family room and has a basement. This home is located in a great neighborhood, very close to stores, restaurants, US31 access, and Lake Michigan.

Key facts

• Large lot
• Sunroom
• Us31 access

Tags

• REETHS-PUFFER SCHOOL DISTRICT
• LARGE LOT
• EXTRA TWO STALL GARAGE
• SUNROOM
• US31 ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-296 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (18.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (31.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (31.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#92 in MI, #2,096 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D-, crime F, employment F.
• Reeths-Puffer Schools (suburban): math 28% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #254 of 540 in MI (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 142 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 438 units permitted in Muskegon County in 2024 (115 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Muskegon County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$50k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $197,500 (31.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.38%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $271,783
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1250 Logan Rd	0.06mi	3/1.0	1,436 (-9%)	1mo	$214,000	$149	80
1291 Logan Rd	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,396 (-11%)	7mo	$295,900	$212	69
1460 Destiny Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,628 (+4%)	22mo	$339,900	$209	57
1838 Kings Ct	0.70mi	3/1.5	1,586 (+1%)	10mo	$299,900	$189	57
1290 E Giles Rd	0.22mi	3/2.5	1,736 (+10%)	15mo	$300,000	$173	56
1914 Pappas Rd	0.44mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,624 (+3%)	14mo	$205,000	$126	55
1305 Joslyn Rd	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,600 (+2%)	12mo	$252,000	$158	52
1999 N Roberts Rd	0.53mi	3/2.5	1,470 (-6%)	15mo	$250,000	$170	48
1480 Poulson Rd	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,680 (+7%)	3mo	$265,000	$158	44
1521 Riblet St	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,380 (-12%)	4mo	$240,000	$174	42
1523 Destiny Dr	0.40mi	3/2.5	1,364 (-13%)	18mo	$305,000	$224	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $139,015
• Equity at exit: $261,255

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.22×
• Total profit: $424,092
• Equity at exit: $563,406

Cash invested: $81,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49445

• Home prices YoY: 7.2%
• Active inventory: 142
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,975 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$215 /mo · $2,578/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $-296

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,350

Max offer price $237,674

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,500
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1990 Pappas Rd Muskegon, MI	3.0	2.0	1468	$1,975	$1.35	21d	1	0.54mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-05-12
   listed $290,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,578 · $215/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,522 · $293/mo
• Expected delta: +$944/yr (+$79/mo · 36.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,700
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,245
• − Property taxes: −$2,578
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,896
• − Management: −$1,896
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$8,801
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,112
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,442/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Reeths-Puffer Schools
• NCES district ID: 2629540
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,223
• Composite: 31.62/100
• National rank: #5942
• State rank: #254 of 540 in MI

Livability — Muskegon

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #92
• US rank: #2096

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 44,766
• Population (ZIP): 21,090

Population outlook (Muskegon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 174,032 people
• By 2030: 173,365 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 168,877 · -3.0%
• By 2050: 160,306 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 134,426 · -22.8%
• By 2100: 98,836 · -43.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 10% Romanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Muskegon

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.4% · R 50.2% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.1pp toward R · 2008: 29.3pp · 2024: -1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.8 2020: D+0.6 2016: D+0.9 2012: D+17.8 2008: D+29.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 40.82%
• Current HPI: 605.31
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — FSBO.com
• 2026-05-12 Listed $290,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,578 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.