3702 B Katy Ln · Bellmead, TX 76705

$99,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured · 117 Days on market

Built 2016 Fair condition 10,454 sqft lot $149/sqft · 143% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Super cute move in ready home. Home was built in 2016, Bought brand new, not lived in till 2019 by one occupant until 2024. Home features 2x6 exterior studs, double pain windows, built in fire alarm-sprinkler system, has central heat and air, free standing range and refrigerator. Also features handy Cap accessible bathroom and large fenced lot with trees. Built in dressers. New Survey on file. Identical home next door in lessor condition appraised for $113K and sold June 2025.

Key facts

• Large fenced lot
• Built in dressers
• Move in ready

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• LARGE FENCED LOT
• BUILT IN DRESSERS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $208 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $91k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 5.1% in Bellmead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#893 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime F.
• La Vega ISD (suburban): math 24% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #680 of 826 in TX (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 297 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $90,909 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.92%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $41,087
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: 143.14%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3702A Katy Ln	0.00mi	2/1.0	672 (0%)	7mo	$42,000	$63	94

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.2% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-3,836
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $10,116
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76705

• Home prices YoY: -29.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 297
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,137 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,498/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$239
• Net cashflow: $208

Break-even live

Break-even rent $874

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $277	-5% $242	+0% $208	+5% $173	+10% $139
Rent	-10% $118	-5% $163	+0% $208	+5% $253	+10% $298
Rate	-1.0pp $258	-0.5pp $233	base $208	+0.5pp $182	+1.0pp $156

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3600 Scroggins Dr Waco, TX	1.0	1.0	681	$920	$1.35	44d	4	1.23mi
504 Wilson Rd Waco, TX	1.0	1.0	750	$1,200	$1.60	14d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 117 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 116 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 115 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 114 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,900 Active 112 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 111 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,900 Active 109 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 108 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 107 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,900 Active 106 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 101 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 100 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 99 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,900 Active 98 DOM
15. 2026-05-01
    price $99,900 482-char remark

    Show marketing remark (482 chars)

    Super cute move in ready home. Home was built in 2016, Bought brand new, not lived in till 2019 by one occupant until 2024. Home features 2x6 exterior studs, double pain windows, built in fire alarm-sprinkler system, has central heat and air, free standing range and refrigerator. Also features handy Cap accessible bathroom and large fenced lot with trees. Built in dressers. New Survey on file. Identical home next door in lessor condition appraised for $113K and sold June 2025.

16. 2026-02-21
    listed $105,900 Active 482-char remark

    Show marketing remark (482 chars)

    Super cute move in ready home. Home was built in 2016, Bought brand new, not lived in till 2019 by one occupant until 2024. Home features 2x6 exterior studs, double pain windows, built in fire alarm-sprinkler system, has central heat and air, free standing range and refrigerator. Also features handy Cap accessible bathroom and large fenced lot with trees. Built in dressers. New Survey on file. Identical home next door in lessor condition appraised for $113K and sold June 2025.

17. 2025-12-10
    historical
18. 2024-12-10
    listed $99,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,645
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$1,498
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,092
• − Management: −$1,092
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $962
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$231
• After-tax cash flow: $2,264/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

A move-in ready manufactured home with average condition, requiring minor repairs and maintenance to enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Exterior siding — Weathered appearance
• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Worn appearance
• Minor Bathroom fixtures — Need cleaning

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace countertops — Modern countertops improve functionality and aesthetics
• Both Landscaping — Landscaping enhances curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior siding · Weathered appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
Kitchen cabinets · Worn appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom fixtures · Need cleaning	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace countertops — Modern countertops improve functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Landscaping enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: La Vega ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826280
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $38,539
• Composite: 23.42/100
• National rank: #7892
• State rank: #680 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bellmead

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #893
• US rank: #16031

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bellmead, TX
• County: McLennan County · 213,088 people
• City population: 31,750
• Metro: Waco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,616
• Household income: $58,236
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 668.0

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 20% Black 18% Native American 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.45%
• Current HPI: 217.9429
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.20%
• Metro: Waco, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $99,900 NTREIS
• 2026-02-21 Listed $105,900 NTREIS
• 2025-12-10 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-12-10 Listed $99,900 NTREIS