Is 13503 Willow Fir Dr in Montgomery, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 3.0% cap rate and $-1,007/mo modeled cash flow at a $236,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 13503 Willow Fir Dr?

The modeled cap rate is 3.0% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,099/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 27.67

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Condition / age +4.8/5.0
Schools +4.5/10.0
Cash flow +4.2/30.0
Livability +3.5/5.0
Rent growth +2.6/5.0
1% rule +0.7/10.0
DSCR +0.0/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$236,990

13503 Willow Fir Dr · Montgomery, TX 77316

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,720 sqft · SingleFamily · 106 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 2-car garage $100/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

New Construction Lennar Houston Home - New Construction Lennar Houston Home - The Ramsey Floor Plan - This new single-story design makes smart use of the space available. At the front are all three secondary bedrooms arranged near a convenient full-sized bathroom. Down the foyer is a modern layout connecting a peninsula-style kitchen made for inspired meals, an intimate dining area and a family room ideal for gatherings. Tucked in a quiet corner is the owner’s suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

Key facts

Single story design
New construction
Walk in closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $237k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (4.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (11.4% below list).
Recommended offer: $210k (11.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads 70/100 on livability (#372 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Magnolia Parkway El (math 38% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 776 students, 45% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 3051 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,940 (11.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.57% ✗
Cap rate: 3.04%
Cash-on-cash: -11.63%
DSCR: 0.48
GRM: 14.7

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $371,236
List price: $236,990
Delta: -34.28%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13314 Wind Field Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,656 (-4%)	2mo	$229,990	$139	92
6019 Ash Willow Ct	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,760 (+2%)	2mo	$282,990	$161	91
13022 Pine Trace St	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,717 (-0%)	1mo	$228,990	$133	79
13107 Pine Trace St	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,724 (+0%)	3mo	$308,190	$179	77
6027 Ash Willow Ct	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,522 (-12%)	1mo	$234,990	$154	71
6043 Ash Willow Ct	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,968 (+14%)	3mo	$248,745	$126	68
13095 Pine Trace St	0.31mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,635 (-5%)	4mo	$308,990	$189	67
13111 Pine Trace St	0.31mi	4/3.0	1,875 (+9%)	1mo	$332,990	$178	66
13115 Pine Trace St	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,572 (-9%)	2mo	$305,990	$195	65
13099 Pine Trace St	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,572 (-9%)	3mo	$303,990	$193	64
13038 Pine Trace St	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,880 (+9%)	3mo	$335,990	$179	62
13047 Pine Trace St	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,908 (+11%)	3mo	$347,990	$182	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -40.6%
Equity multiple: -0.25×
Total profit: $-129,553
Equity at exit: $55,353

10-year hold

IRR: -86.0%
Equity multiple: -1.08×
Total profit: $-215,873
Equity at exit: $32,098

Cash invested: $103,946 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Seller's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 22 active · 50 under contract
Months of supply: 2.8 mo (36%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $228,490 ($138/sqft)
Median days on market: 30 d
This list price: 59% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +56.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77316

Home prices YoY: -10.7%
Rents YoY: 0.4%
Active inventory: 3051
Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,099 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,947
Tax est. 1.5%: −$464 /mo · $5,569/yr
Insurance: −$155
HOA: −$100
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
Net cashflow: $-1,007

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,374

Max offer price $225,521

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-750	-5% $-879	+0% $-1,007	+5% $-1,135	+10% $-1,264
Rent	-10% $-1,173	-5% $-1,090	+0% $-1,007	+5% $-924	+10% $-841
Rate	-1.0pp $-820	-0.5pp $-913	base $-1,007	+0.5pp $-1,103	+1.0pp $-1,201

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $92,809
Closing costs: $11,137
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6034 Ash Willow Ct Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	1968	$1,675	$0.85	34d	1	0.10mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: Community Solution associationAnnual association fee of $1,200Association amenities include playground, park, and trails

Exterior

Parking: Attached 2-car garage
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Slab foundationBuilt in 2026
Construction: Brick and stucco constructionComposition roofSlab foundationBuilt in 2026
Exterior features: Subdivision lotPond on lotComposition roof

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenElectric rangeGas ovenGas rangePantryBreakfast bar
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First floor)Bedroom (First floor) — 12 x 11Bedroom (First floor) — 10 x 10Bedroom (First floor) — 10 x 10Dining room (First floor) — 10 x 9Family room (First floor) — 17 x 17Total of 6 rooms
Flooring: CarpetVinyl
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Central heating (Electric and Gas)Central air conditioning (Electric and Gas)
Interior features: Breakfast barKitchen and family room comboKitchen and dining comboPantrySeparate showerTub with shower
Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-24

days on market $236,990 Active 106 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $236,990 Active 105 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $236,990 Active 104 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $236,990 Active 103 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $236,990 Active 102 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $236,990 Active 101 DOM
2026-09-18

pricedays on market $236,990 Active 100 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $243,990 Active 99 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $243,990 Active 98 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $243,990 Active 97 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $243,990 Active 96 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $243,990 Active 95 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $243,990 Active 94 DOM
2026-09-11

days on market $243,990 Active 93 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $243,990 Active 87 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $243,990 Active 86 DOM
2026-09-02

days on market $243,990 Active 84 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $243,990 Active 82 DOM
2026-08-30

days on market $243,990 Active 81 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $243,990 Active 80 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $243,990 Active 79 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $243,990 Active 78 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $243,990 Active 76 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $243,990 Active 75 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $243,990 Active 74 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $243,990 Active 73 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $243,990 Active 72 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $243,990 Active 71 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $243,990 Active 70 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $243,990 Active 69 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $243,990 Active 68 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $243,990 Active 67 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $243,990 Active 66 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $243,990 Active 65 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $243,990 Active 64 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $243,990 Active 63 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $243,990 Active 62 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $243,990 Active 61 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $243,990 Active 60 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $243,990 Active 59 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $243,990 Active 57 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $243,990 Active 56 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $243,990 Active 55 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $243,990 Active 54 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $243,990 Active 51 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $243,990 Active 49 DOM
2026-07-28

pricedays on market $243,990 Active 48 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $233,991 Active 46 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $233,991 Active 44 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $233,991 Active 43 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $25,193
− Mortgage interest: −$20,795
− Property taxes: −$5,569
− Insurance: −$1,856
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,015
− Management: −$2,015
− HOA: −$1,200
− Depreciation: −$10,800
Taxable loss: −$19,057

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,574
After-tax cash flow: $-7,510/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This new construction home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a modern design and is move-in ready.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
Both Landscaping the front yard — Improves curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 45/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Magnolia Parkway El F TX #1,335/4,322 Nat'l #17,861/41,679 Middle Bear Branch J H D TX #479/1,662 Nat'l #4,622/14,009 High Magnolia West H S D- TX #591/1,632 Nat'l #6,330/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Magnolia ISD
NCES district ID: 4828740
Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
Median HH income: $71,692
Composite: 39.46/100
National rank: #3958
State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Montgomery

Score: 70/100
State rank: #372
US rank: #7894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
City population: 67,277
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 34,694
Household income: $124,055
Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 713,896 people
By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
Current HPI: 262.6973
Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-2.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

2026-06-25 Price Changed $243,991 HARMLS
2026-06-19 Price Changed $253,990 HARMLS
2026-06-10 Listed $250,940 HARMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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