13503 Willow Fir Dr · Magnolia, TX 77316

$250,940

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,720 sqft · SingleFamily · 8 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $100/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New Construction Lennar Houston Home - New Construction Lennar Houston Home - The Ramsey Floor Plan - This new single-story design makes smart use of the space available. At the front are all three secondary bedrooms arranged near a convenient full-sized bathroom. Down the foyer is a modern layout connecting a peninsula-style kitchen made for inspired meals, an intimate dining area and a family room ideal for gatherings. Tucked in a quiet corner is the owner’s suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes​​‌​​​​‌​​‌&

Key facts

• Single story design
• New construction
• Walk in closet

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• SINGLE STORY DESIGN
• PENINSULA STYLE KITCHEN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• WALK IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community Solution association; Annual association fee of $1,200; Association amenities include playground, park, and trails

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Slab foundation; Built in 2026
• Construction: Brick and stucco construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built in 2026
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot; Pond on lot; Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Gas oven; Gas range; Pantry; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First floor); Bedroom (First floor) — 12 x 11; Bedroom (First floor) — 10 x 10; Bedroom (First floor) — 10 x 10; Dining room (First floor) — 10 x 9; Family room (First floor) — 17 x 17; Total of 6 rooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (Electric and Gas); Central air conditioning (Electric and Gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen and family room combo; Kitchen and dining combo; Pantry; Separate shower; Tub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $250,940 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $325,080.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $251k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-615 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (5.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (12.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (12.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia West H S (math 41% / reading 53%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 2,208 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2283 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,241 (12.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.10%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $325,080
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6039 Ash Willow Ct	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,720 (0%)	1mo	$276,990	$161	94
13083 Pine Trace St	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,655 (-4%)	1mo	$315,990	$191	90
13043 Pine Trace St	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,792 (+4%)	1mo	$320,990	$179	84
13107 Pine Trace St	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,724 (+0%)	0mo	$308,190	$179	80
6043 Ash Willow Ct	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,968 (+14%)	0mo	$248,745	$126	70
13095 Pine Trace St	0.31mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,635 (-5%)	0mo	$308,990	$189	70
6051 Ash Willow Ct	0.12mi	4/2.5	1,968 (+14%)	0mo	$297,990	$151	68
13099 Pine Trace St	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,572 (-9%)	0mo	$303,990	$193	66
13091 Pine Trace St	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,572 (-9%)	1mo	$303,990	$193	66
13087 Pine Trace St	0.54mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,749 (+2%)	1mo	$332,990	$190	64
13075 Pine Trace St	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,572 (-9%)	1mo	$303,990	$193	54
6122 Daintree Ct	0.54mi	4/2.5	1,968 (+14%)	1mo	$293,990	$149	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-97,314
• Equity at exit: $48,470

10-year hold

• IRR: -61.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.72×
• Total profit: $-156,532
• Equity at exit: $28,107

Cash invested: $91,022 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2283
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,192 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,705
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$406 /mo · $4,876/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $-615

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,970

Max offer price $236,154

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,270
• Closing costs: $9,752
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,940 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 678-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,940 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,940 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,940 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 653-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $250,940 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,309
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,210
• − Property taxes: −$4,876
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,105
• − Management: −$2,105
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$9,457
• Taxable loss: −$13,269
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,184
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,190/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This new construction home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a modern design and is move-in ready.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value
• Both Landscaping the front yard — Improves curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — Improves curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $250,940 HARMLS