511 E 7th St · Miller, MO 65707

$120,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,034 sqft · SingleFamily · 15 Days on market

Built 1900 Poor condition 10 ac lot $116/sqft · 21% below area Est $152k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wonderful location down from Miller High school right on the edge of town. This amazing lot is almost 10 acres of woods with a draw in the middle. Would be a great spot to remodel or build. Home need's some work but has potential. You can enter the property from 7th st or Hunter's st.

Key facts

• 10 acres of woods
• 10 acre lot
• Built 1900

Tags

• 10 ACRES OF WOODS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Propane utility
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Exterior features: 10-acre lot

Interior

• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Propane heating; Other heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Hardwood floors; 1 full bathroom

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-34 ($-406/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $115k (4.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $101k (16.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $101k (16.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#405 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Miller R-II (rural): math 25% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #276 of 324 in MO (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Central Elem. (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #611 of 1,115 statewide, top 59%, 300 students, 64% FRL); Miller High (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #462 of 521 statewide, top 90%, 288 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 67 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (35 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lawrence County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $100,686 (16.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.21%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $151,800
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -20.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
308 E 3rd St	0.35mi	2/1.0 (-1)	990 (-4%)	14mo	$157,000	$159	60
206 W Third St	0.56mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,022 (-1%)	16mo	$149,000	$146	52
114 N Hobbs St	0.43mi	2/1.0 (-1)	896 (-13%)	8mo	$139,900	$156	46
511 N Washam St	0.31mi	2/1.0 (-1)	878 (-15%)	13mo	$115,000	$131	45
207 E Highway Dd St	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,118 (+8%)	21mo	$170,000	$152	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-21,587
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-21,514
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65707

• Home prices YoY: -10.8%
• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,007 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,800/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$211
• Net cashflow: $-34

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,050

Max offer price $115,098

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $49	-5% $8	+0% $-34	+5% $-75	+10% $-117
Rent	-10% $-113	-5% $-74	+0% $-34	+5% $6	+10% $46
Rate	-1.0pp $27	-0.5pp $-3	base $-34	+0.5pp $-65	+1.0pp $-97

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 223-char remark
2. 2026-04-21
   listed $120,000 Active 223-char remark
3. 2018-12-03
   soldstatus 285-char remark

   Show marketing remark (285 chars)

   Wonderful location down from Miller High school right on the edge of town. This amazing lot is almost 10 acres of woods with a draw in the middle. Would be a great spot to remodel or build. Home need's some work but has potential. You can enter the property from 7th st or Hunter's st.

4. 2018-06-29
   listed $54,900 285-char remark

   Show marketing remark (285 chars)

   Wonderful location down from Miller High school right on the edge of town. This amazing lot is almost 10 acres of woods with a draw in the middle. Would be a great spot to remodel or build. Home need's some work but has potential. You can enter the property from 7th st or Hunter's st.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,082
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,800
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$967
• − Management: −$967
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$2,464
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$591
• After-tax cash flow: $185/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and renovations to become move-in ready. Significant structural and functional issues need addressing to improve its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exposed brick in kitchen — Structural damage
• Major Exposed plumbing in bathrooms — Safety hazard
• Major Damaged metal roof — Leakage risk
• Major Damaged siding — Structural integrity
• Major Exposed insulation — Energy inefficiency
• Major Missing cabinets in kitchen — Functionality
• Major Missing fixtures in bathrooms — Safety hazard
• Major Exposed ductwork — Energy inefficiency
• Major Overgrown yard — Curb appeal

Value-add opportunities

• Both New roof — Fixes leakage and enhances curb appeal
• Both New siding — Enhances curb appeal and structural integrity
• Both New HVAC system — Improves energy efficiency and comfort
• Both New cabinets and fixtures — Enhances functionality and appearance
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances curb appeal and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exposed brick in kitchen · Structural damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exposed plumbing in bathrooms · Safety hazard	Major	$15,000–50,000
Damaged metal roof · Leakage risk	Major	$15,000–50,000
Damaged siding · Structural integrity	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exposed insulation · Energy inefficiency	Major	$15,000–50,000
Missing cabinets in kitchen · Functionality	Major	$15,000–50,000
Missing fixtures in bathrooms · Safety hazard	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exposed ductwork · Energy inefficiency	Major	$15,000–50,000
Overgrown yard · Curb appeal	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 9 items		$135,000–450,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both New roof — Fixes leakage and enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both New siding — Enhances curb appeal and structural integrity ↑
• Both New HVAC system — Improves energy efficiency and comfort ↑
• Both New cabinets and fixtures — Enhances functionality and appearance ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Miller R-II
• NCES district ID: 2921000
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $44,658
• Composite: 24.83/100
• National rank: #7592
• State rank: #276 of 324 in MO

Livability — Miller

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #405
• US rank: #17217

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Miller, MO
• Population (ZIP): 2,263

Population outlook (Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,142 people
• By 2030: 36,212 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 34,080 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 31,621 · -14.9%
• By 2075: 25,987 · -30.0%
• By 2100: 20,151 · -45.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Iranian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lawrence

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.8) · D 17.6% · R 81.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.8pp toward R · 2008: -37.1pp · 2024: -63.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.8 2020: R+62.6 2016: R+61.1 2012: R+47.0 2008: R+37.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -20.50%
• Current HPI: 169.814
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+118.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — SOMO
• 2026-04-21 Listed $120,000 SOMO
• 2018-12-03 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2018-06-29 Listed $54,900 SOMO