81 Mayer Ave · Buffalo, NY 14207

$119,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 891 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1900 2,700 sqft lot Est $144k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This house could be a great opportunity for an investor to buy a house with a long term tenant in place. This could also be a great house for an owner occupant. Please use Showing Time to schedule an appointment. Available windows of time will be Wednesday 6-8pm and Sunday 12-3pm. House is currently rented for $675/month on a Month-to-Month lease. Tenant pays gas and electric. Please email offers to Earl@IrishJonesRealty.

Key facts

• Hot water tank
• Roof
• 100 amp electrical

Tags

• 100 AMP ELECTRICAL
• FURNACE
• HOT WATER TANK
• KITCHEN AND APPLIANCES
• ROOF
• FLOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $302 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 197 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($40k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $120k implies a 71% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $119,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.81%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $144,342
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
75 Mayer Ave	0.01mi	3/1.0	810 (-9%)	3mo	$129,000	$159	82
268 Riverside Ave	0.16mi	3/1.0	936 (+5%)	5mo	$150,000	$160	80
84 Gallatin Ave	0.03mi	3/1.0	936 (+5%)	15mo	$55,000	$59	78
98 Gallatin Ave	0.04mi	3/1.0	928 (+4%)	19mo	$150,000	$162	75
63 Briggs Ave	0.34mi	3/1.0	974 (+9%)	0mo	$180,000	$185	68
42 Progressive Ave	0.14mi	3/1.0	1,019 (+14%)	6mo	$68,000	$67	64
78 Gallatin Ave	0.03mi	3/1.5	990 (+11%)	22mo	$59,000	$60	60
5 Ruhl Ave	0.64mi	3/1.0	964 (+8%)	0mo	$234,100	$243	56
34 Race St	0.55mi	2/1.0 (-1)	960 (+8%)	4mo	$158,500	$165	53
19 Royal Ave	0.42mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,021 (+15%)	2mo	$159,547	$156	49
112 Condon Ave	0.57mi	3/2.0	936 (+5%)	15mo	$175,000	$187	49
40 Kofler Ave	0.68mi	3/1.0	964 (+8%)	18mo	$215,000	$223	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $6,530
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $60,992
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14207

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 197
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,277 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $336/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $302

Break-even live

Break-even rent $895

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
118 Rano St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,200	$1.14	21d	1	0.12mi
239 Crowley Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	966	$1,025	$1.06	3d	1	0.24mi
356 Hertel Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.5	800	$2,300	$2.88	2d	1	0.37mi
15 Ontario St Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	1d	1	0.44mi
15 Beatrice Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	950	$1,150	$1.21	14d	1	0.50mi
68 Laforce Pl Unit U Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,099	$1.22	43d	1	0.52mi
134 Philadelphia St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	871	$1,100	$1.26	2d	1	0.53mi
2099 Niagara St Unit A Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,197	$1.20	43d	1	0.65mi
155 Germain St Apt 1 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	10d	1	0.77mi
480 W Hazeltine Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	989	$1,900	$1.92	23d	1	0.88mi
72 Reservation St Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	950	$1,150	$1.21	23d	1	0.91mi
2075 Kenmore Ave Unit 611 Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	981	$1,950	$1.99	1d	1	0.94mi
68 Peter St Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$900	$1.00	23d	1	0.95mi
1920 Niagara St Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	695	$999	$1.44	43d	1	0.97mi
293 Grote St Buffalo, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	817	$2,345	$2.87	1d	1	1.14mi
1558 Elmwood Ave Unit 4 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	43d	1	1.30mi
100 Forest Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0–4.0	2.0–4.0	1304	$1,600	$1.23	1d	14	1.50mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-02
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-20
   listed $119,900 Active
3. 2021-12-10
   soldstatus $70,000 Closed Sale or Rented 426-char remark

   Show marketing remark (426 chars)

   This house could be a great opportunity for an investor to buy a house with a long term tenant in place. This could also be a great house for an owner occupant. Please use Showing Time to schedule an appointment. Available windows of time will be Wednesday 6-8pm and Sunday 12-3pm. House is currently rented for $675/month on a Month-to-Month lease. Tenant pays gas and electric. Please email offers to Earl@IrishJonesRealty.

4. 2021-09-23
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show 426-char remark

   Show marketing remark (426 chars)

   This house could be a great opportunity for an investor to buy a house with a long term tenant in place. This could also be a great house for an owner occupant. Please use Showing Time to schedule an appointment. Available windows of time will be Wednesday 6-8pm and Sunday 12-3pm. House is currently rented for $675/month on a Month-to-Month lease. Tenant pays gas and electric. Please email offers to Earl@IrishJonesRealty.

5. 2021-07-27
   listed $84,900 Active 426-char remark

   Show marketing remark (426 chars)

   This house could be a great opportunity for an investor to buy a house with a long term tenant in place. This could also be a great house for an owner occupant. Please use Showing Time to schedule an appointment. Available windows of time will be Wednesday 6-8pm and Sunday 12-3pm. House is currently rented for $675/month on a Month-to-Month lease. Tenant pays gas and electric. Please email offers to Earl@IrishJonesRealty.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $336 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,181 · $98/mo
• Expected delta: +$845/yr (+$70/mo · 251.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,330
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$336
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,226
• − Management: −$1,226
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $1,737
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$417
• After-tax cash flow: $3,213/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 26,327
• Household income: $39,753
• Rent vs Own: 65.0% rent · 35.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2177.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 16% Asian 15% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 18% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Portuguese 1% Arab 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Philippines, Canada, India
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Asian/Pacific 10% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.42%
• Current HPI: 233.0902
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.19%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+41.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $119,900 WNYREIS
• 2021-12-10 Sold (MLS) $70,000 WNYREIS
• 2021-09-23 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2021-07-27 Listed $84,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $336 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.