40 Duxbury Rd · Worcester, MA 01605

$389,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,056 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1890 4,517 sqft lot $189/sqft · 13% below area Est $445k · 13% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very spacious home with 2000+sqft complete with 4br and 2 full baths! Modern updated features while showcasing the original woodwork and character. The kitchen has been fully renovated with new cabinets throughout and new granite and stainless steel appliances. Downstairs full bath completely renovated with walk in shower. Upstairs you will find 4 oversized bedrooms with ample closet space in each! Nice sized lot with access off the kitchen perfect for grilling and entertaining. Newer gutters and gutter guards with many new replacement windows. Solar panels and efficient gas heat will help tremendously with those utility bills. Ideally situated close to major routes, shopping and restaurants.

Key facts

• Ample closet space
• Original woodwork
• Walk in shower

Tags

• ORIGINAL WOODWORK
• FULLY RENOVATED KITCHEN
• WALK IN SHOWER
• AMPLE CLOSET SPACE
• ACCESS OFF THE KITCHEN
• NEWER GUTTERS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $389k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-159 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $361k (7.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $301k (22.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $301k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.1% in Worcester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#9 in MA, #312 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: schools C-, cost of living D.
• Worcester (urban): math 17% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #280 of 302 in MA (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 35 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,293 units permitted in Worcester County in 2024 (1,205 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,014/mo this rent would consume 66% of the median local household income ($55k/yr) (locally 1991% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($377k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $36k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $325k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $301,442 (22.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.75%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $445,455
• List price: $389,000
• Delta: -12.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7 Wakefield	0.33mi	3/1.5 (-1)	2,068 (+1%)	0mo	$320,000	$155	76
30 Melrose St	0.41mi	4/1.5	2,250 (+9%)	3mo	$460,000	$204	61
10 Byron St	0.58mi	4/1.5	2,176 (+6%)	8mo	$369,000	$170	54
136 Burncoat Ter	0.59mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,100 (+2%)	12mo	$639,900	$305	52
60 Bates Ave	0.58mi	4/1.5	2,122 (+3%)	19mo	$440,000	$207	50
17 Uxbridge St	0.15mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,271 (+10%)	22mo	$529,900	$233	50
5 Channing Way	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,836 (-11%)	14mo	$380,000	$207	32
1 Green Hill Ave	0.60mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,790 (-13%)	17mo	$500,000	$279	29
7 Green Hill Ave	0.65mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,800 (-12%)	19mo	$460,000	$256	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-67,727
• Equity at exit: $58,001

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-48,936
• Equity at exit: $33,634

Cash invested: $108,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 20 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Massachusetts: 20 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Cambridge / Boston historically rent-controlled (preempted 1994 but consideration ongoing); strong tenant protections; court backlogs.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 01605

• Home prices YoY: -21.4%
• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 35
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,014 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,040
• Tax from tax record: −$338 /mo · $4,057/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$633
• Net cashflow: $-159

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,215

Max offer price $360,959

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $61	-5% $-49	+0% $-159	+5% $-269	+10% $-379
Rent	-10% $-397	-5% $-278	+0% $-159	+5% $-40	+10% $79
Rate	-1.0pp $37	-0.5pp $-60	base $-159	+0.5pp $-260	+1.0pp $-362

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,250
• Closing costs: $11,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
30 Denmark St Worcester, MA	4.0	2.0	1600	$3,300	$2.06	24d	1	0.08mi
7 Sturgis St Apt 3 Worcester, MA	4.0	1.0	1750	$2,625	$1.50	15d	1	0.19mi
74 Green Hill Pkwy Apt 1 Worcester, MA	3.0	1.0	1451	$2,150	$1.48	15d	1	0.27mi
30 Orne St Worcester, MA	5.0	1.0	1840	$3,150	$1.71	44d	1	0.31mi
19 Henchman St Unit U3 Worcester, MA	3.0	1.0	1400	$2,250	$1.61	24d	1	0.61mi
92 Stanton St Unit 3 Worcester, MA	4.0	2.0	1400	$2,600	$1.86	24d	1	0.62mi
8 Ellsmere St Unit a Worcester, MA	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,400	$1.50	44d	1	0.96mi
21 Creston St Unit A Worcester, MA	3.0	1.5	2030	$2,800	$1.38	15d	1	1.00mi
30 Elliot St Unit 3 Worcester, MA	3.0	1.0	1478	$2,000	$1.35	24d	1	1.03mi
2 Main St Worcester, MA	3.0	1.0–2.5	2046	$4,149	$2.03	24d	6	1.10mi
27 Shelby St Apt 1 Worcester, MA	4.0	1.0	1400	$2,300	$1.64	44d	1	1.11mi
27 Shelby St Apt 2 Worcester, MA	4.0	1.0	1431	$2,500	$1.75	24d	1	1.11mi
27 Shelby St Apt 1 Worcester, MA	3.0	1.0	1400	$2,500	$1.79	22d	1	1.11mi
23 Lancaster St Worcester, MA	3.0	1.5	1768	$2,800	$1.58	15d	1	1.18mi
249 Shrewsbury St Unit 3 Worcester, MA	3.0	1.0	1700	$1,975	$1.16	24d	1	1.21mi
308 Plantation St Apt 3 Worcester, MA	3.0	1.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	24d	1	1.35mi
121 King Philip Rd Worcester, MA	4.0	3.0	2700	$4,200	$1.56	44d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $389,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $389,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $389,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $389,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   pricestatusdays on market $389,000 Price Changed 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $399,000 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,000 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,000 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $399,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $399,000 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $399,000 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,000 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    statusdays on market $399,000 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,000 Price Changed 39 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,000 Price Changed 38 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    price $424,000 701-char remark

    Show marketing remark (701 chars)

    Very spacious home with 2000+sqft complete with 4br and 2 full baths! Modern updated features while showcasing the original woodwork and character. The kitchen has been fully renovated with new cabinets throughout and new granite and stainless steel appliances. Downstairs full bath completely renovated with walk in shower. Upstairs you will find 4 oversized bedrooms with ample closet space in each! Nice sized lot with access off the kitchen perfect for grilling and entertaining. Newer gutters and gutter guards with many new replacement windows. Solar panels and efficient gas heat will help tremendously with those utility bills. Ideally situated close to major routes, shopping and restaurants.

17. 2026-04-22
    listed $424,900 New 701-char remark

    Show marketing remark (701 chars)

    Very spacious home with 2000+sqft complete with 4br and 2 full baths! Modern updated features while showcasing the original woodwork and character. The kitchen has been fully renovated with new cabinets throughout and new granite and stainless steel appliances. Downstairs full bath completely renovated with walk in shower. Upstairs you will find 4 oversized bedrooms with ample closet space in each! Nice sized lot with access off the kitchen perfect for grilling and entertaining. Newer gutters and gutter guards with many new replacement windows. Solar panels and efficient gas heat will help tremendously with those utility bills. Ideally situated close to major routes, shopping and restaurants.

18. 2022-08-22
    soldstatus $325,000 Sold 528-char remark

    Show marketing remark (528 chars)

    **Offers due Tuesday, June 14th @ 5PM** Looking for a ton of space? Come take a look at this spacious home with 4 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, laundry, and a large family room & dining space. This home is located close to major highways for easy commuter access. The second floor bedrooms feature large walk-in closets. The laundry room is on the main floor and the eat-in kitchen has access to rear deck overlooking your level yard. Don't miss this one! Open House Saturday June 11th AND Sunday June 12th from 11:00-12:30pm.

19. 2022-06-30
    status Under Agreement 528-char remark

    Show marketing remark (528 chars)

    **Offers due Tuesday, June 14th @ 5PM** Looking for a ton of space? Come take a look at this spacious home with 4 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, laundry, and a large family room & dining space. This home is located close to major highways for easy commuter access. The second floor bedrooms feature large walk-in closets. The laundry room is on the main floor and the eat-in kitchen has access to rear deck overlooking your level yard. Don't miss this one! Open House Saturday June 11th AND Sunday June 12th from 11:00-12:30pm.

20. 2022-06-16
    historical Contingent 528-char remark

    Show marketing remark (528 chars)

    **Offers due Tuesday, June 14th @ 5PM** Looking for a ton of space? Come take a look at this spacious home with 4 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, laundry, and a large family room & dining space. This home is located close to major highways for easy commuter access. The second floor bedrooms feature large walk-in closets. The laundry room is on the main floor and the eat-in kitchen has access to rear deck overlooking your level yard. Don't miss this one! Open House Saturday June 11th AND Sunday June 12th from 11:00-12:30pm.

21. 2022-06-09
    listed $299,900 New 528-char remark

    Show marketing remark (528 chars)

    **Offers due Tuesday, June 14th @ 5PM** Looking for a ton of space? Come take a look at this spacious home with 4 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, laundry, and a large family room & dining space. This home is located close to major highways for easy commuter access. The second floor bedrooms feature large walk-in closets. The laundry room is on the main floor and the eat-in kitchen has access to rear deck overlooking your level yard. Don't miss this one! Open House Saturday June 11th AND Sunday June 12th from 11:00-12:30pm.

22. 2018-11-09
    soldstatus $196,000 Sold
23. 2018-09-25
    status Contingent
24. 2018-09-21
    price $179,900
25. 2018-09-18
    status Back On Market
26. 2018-09-06
    status Under Agreement
27. 2018-08-24
    listed $189,900 New
28. 2005-06-13
    soldstatus $158,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,057 · $338/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,421 · $368/mo
• Expected delta: +$364/yr (+$30/mo · 9.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,173
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,790
• − Property taxes: −$4,057
• − Insurance: −$1,945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,894
• − Management: −$2,894
• − Depreciation: −$11,316
• Taxable loss: −$8,723
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,094
• After-tax cash flow: $189/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Worcester
• NCES district ID: 2513230
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $45,063
• Composite: 20.3/100
• National rank: #8615
• State rank: #280 of 302 in MA

Livability — Worcester

• Score: 87/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #312

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment C Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Worcester, MA
• County: Worcester County · 487,911 people
• City population: 207,324
• Metro: Worcester, MA-CT
• Population (ZIP): 30,579
• Household income: $54,642
• Rent vs Own: 69.7% rent · 30.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1991.0

Population outlook (Worcester County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 850,858 people
• By 2030: 860,403 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 869,902 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 869,110 · +2.1%
• By 2075: 870,120 · +2.3%
• By 2100: 829,703 · -2.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 19% Black 13% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 24% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Estonian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Indo-European 5% Arabic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Worcester

• 2024 margin: D (+10.0) · D 53.9% · R 43.9% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.8pp toward R · 2008: 13.8pp · 2024: 10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.0 2020: D+17.8 2016: D+10.5 2012: D+9.2 2008: D+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.79%
• Current HPI: 314.391
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.77%
• Metro: Worcester, MA-CT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.28%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	3	$17B
▸Insurance	2	$84B
▸Retail	2	$76B
▸Life Sciences	1	$43B
▸Energy Technology	1	$31B
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$18B

Price history

+168.4% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $424,000 MLS PIN
• 2026-04-22 Listed $424,900 MLS PIN
• 2022-08-22 Sold (MLS) $325,000 MLS PIN
• 2022-06-30 Pending — MLS PIN
• 2022-06-16 Contingent — MLS PIN
• 2022-06-09 Listed $299,900 MLS PIN
• 2018-11-09 Sold (MLS) $196,000 MLS PIN
• 2018-09-25 Pending — MLS PIN
• 2018-09-21 Price Changed $179,900 MLS PIN
• 2018-09-18 Relisted — MLS PIN
• 2018-09-06 Pending — MLS PIN
• 2018-08-24 Listed $189,900 MLS PIN
• 2005-06-13 Sold (Public Records) $158,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2023): $4,057 · +7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.