31255 Blue Sky Way · Castaic, CA 91384

$244,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured · 51 Days on market

Built 2004 Est $220k · 11% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.2/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.4/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a excellent family Park that is a gated community on the westside of Santa clarita near Valencia and the mall. Which means great schools, great shopping, Castaic lake 2 min away and freeway close with the bus stop on the corner. This Large 3 bed 2 bath home built in 2004 with high ceilings, wood burning fireplace, almost 1500 sq. ft. great location in park with 2 to 3 car parking. Very large kitchen with newer stainless steel appliances (my large stainless steel refrigerator stay's) the kitchen ties into the dining area and living room to create one large room for the whole family to enjoy (includes my 11 ft couch and mounted color TV if you want it) the large master is in the back of the unit so it's quiet and holds my very large California king bed and end tables, attached to the master is a seperate retreat for an office or an extra sitting room or TV room. Large master bath with dual sinks and huge sunken tub with custom mirror that stay's. Dual pane windows throughout the unit and interior is all drywall and rounded or radius corners. Large shed in back with a 3 tier fountain that stays. The home has cameras outside that will stay. Central air and heat that works amazing. Indoor laundry and washer and dryer included. Custom brick planter and brick wrap around to the custom brick entryways and porches on both sides of the unit see the photos. ..

Key facts

• 3 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 2004

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Manager approval required; Pets allowed
• Financial info: Land lease amount charged monthly
• HOA & community: Park name: Lakehills Estates; Rent includes access to pool; Land lease applies (monthly land lease fee)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport (3 carport spaces, total 3 parking spaces)
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Electricity connected / on property; Natural gas connected; Water connected (district/public); Sewer connected; Cable available
• Home design: Single-story home; Entry level: 1; Faces east; Mobile home remains on site (26' x 55'); Located in a suburban community (Lakehills Estates)
• Construction: Asphalt roof; Wood / frame construction; Permanent foundation; Skirting: synthetic, wood, and brick
• Exterior features: Covered front porch with brick; Patio (covered); Rain gutters; Exterior lighting; Wood fencing; Back yard / yard; Community pool access; Storage building (shed)

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite counters; Garbage disposal; Built-in range / Gas range; Range/stove hood; Microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: All bedrooms on ground floor; Primary bedroom on main floor (primary suite)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: Remodeled bathrooms; Double sinks in primary bath; Walk-in shower; Separate shower and bathtub; Main floor full bath
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Natural gas heating; Central furnace
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Pantry; Recessed lighting; Open floor plan; Storage space; Cathedral/vaulted ceilings; Granite counters; Blinds; Gated community entry (gate)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room inside; Washer included; Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $776 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $245k).
• Recommended offer: $238k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 2.5% in Castaic — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#860 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• William S. Hart Union High (suburban): math 52% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #155 of 1,400 in CA (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Northlake Hills Elementary (573 students, 58% FRL); Castaic Middle (431 students, 47% FRL); Valencia High (2,275 students, 12% FRL) — zoned schools average 39% FRL vs 18% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 138 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $69k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $132k; list at $245k implies a 85% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,553 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.58%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $219,856
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31208 Heavenly Way	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-1%)	7mo	$222,000	$154	90
31212 Lakehills Rd #24	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+6%)	11mo	$232,000	$151	77
31214 Heavenly Way	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,416 (-3%)	22mo	$228,000	$161	74
31311 Lakehills Rd #82	0.03mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-8%)	12mo	$190,000	$141	71
31323 N Blue Sky Way #108	0.01mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-8%)	14mo	$200,000	$149	70
31266 Blue Sky Way #93	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,552 (+7%)	19mo	$185,000	$119	65
31269 N Lakehills Rd #79	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-14%)	24mo	$171,000	$137	47
27722 Moonridge Ln #27	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-14%)	23mo	$201,000	$161	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $9,792
• Equity at exit: $36,515

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $72,367
• Equity at exit: $21,174

Cash invested: $68,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 91384

• Home prices YoY: -28.3%
• Active inventory: 138
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,125 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,284
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$306 /mo · $3,674/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$656
• Net cashflow: $776

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,142

Max offer price $244,900

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $945	-5% $861	+0% $776	+5% $691	+10% $607
Rent	-10% $529	-5% $653	+0% $776	+5% $900	+10% $1,023
Rate	-1.0pp $899	-0.5pp $838	base $776	+0.5pp $713	+1.0pp $648

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,225
• Closing costs: $7,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
31727 Ridge Route Rd Unit 208 Castaic, CA	2.0	2.0	877	$1,900	$2.17	0d	1	0.66mi
30427 Yosemite Dr Castaic, CA	3.0	2.5	1689	$4,000	$2.37	0d	1	1.07mi
30319 Cedar Oak Ln Castaic, CA	3.0	3.0	1861	$3,800	$2.04	25d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $244,900 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $244,900 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $244,900 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $244,900 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $244,900 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $244,900 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,900 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,900 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,900 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $249,900 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $254,900 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $254,900 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $254,900 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,900 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,900 Active 30 DOM
16. 2026-05-01
    listed $259,900 Active
17. 2026-04-19
    price $259,900
18. 2026-04-18
    historical $259,000
19. 2020-09-29
    soldstatus $132,500 Closed Sale 1380-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1380 chars)

    This is a excellent family Park that is a gated community on the westside of Santa clarita near Valencia and the mall. Which means great schools, great shopping, Castaic lake 2 min away and freeway close with the bus stop on the corner. This Large 3 bed 2 bath home built in 2004 with high ceilings, wood burning fireplace, almost 1500 sq. ft. great location in park with 2 to 3 car parking. Very large kitchen with newer stainless steel appliances (my large stainless steel refrigerator stay's) the kitchen ties into the dining area and living room to create one large room for the whole family to enjoy (includes my 11 ft couch and mounted color TV if you want it) the large master is in the back of the unit so it's quiet and holds my very large California king bed and end tables, attached to the master is a seperate retreat for an office or an extra sitting room or TV room. Large master bath with dual sinks and huge sunken tub with custom mirror that stay's. Dual pane windows throughout the unit and interior is all drywall and rounded or radius corners. Large shed in back with a 3 tier fountain that stays. The home has cameras outside that will stay. Central air and heat that works amazing. Indoor laundry and washer and dryer included. Custom brick planter and brick wrap around to the custom brick entryways and porches on both sides of the unit see the photos. ..

20. 2020-09-04
    status Pending Sale 1380-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1380 chars)

    This is a excellent family Park that is a gated community on the westside of Santa clarita near Valencia and the mall. Which means great schools, great shopping, Castaic lake 2 min away and freeway close with the bus stop on the corner. This Large 3 bed 2 bath home built in 2004 with high ceilings, wood burning fireplace, almost 1500 sq. ft. great location in park with 2 to 3 car parking. Very large kitchen with newer stainless steel appliances (my large stainless steel refrigerator stay's) the kitchen ties into the dining area and living room to create one large room for the whole family to enjoy (includes my 11 ft couch and mounted color TV if you want it) the large master is in the back of the unit so it's quiet and holds my very large California king bed and end tables, attached to the master is a seperate retreat for an office or an extra sitting room or TV room. Large master bath with dual sinks and huge sunken tub with custom mirror that stay's. Dual pane windows throughout the unit and interior is all drywall and rounded or radius corners. Large shed in back with a 3 tier fountain that stays. The home has cameras outside that will stay. Central air and heat that works amazing. Indoor laundry and washer and dryer included. Custom brick planter and brick wrap around to the custom brick entryways and porches on both sides of the unit see the photos. ..

21. 2020-07-25
    price $139,000 1380-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1380 chars)

    This is a excellent family Park that is a gated community on the westside of Santa clarita near Valencia and the mall. Which means great schools, great shopping, Castaic lake 2 min away and freeway close with the bus stop on the corner. This Large 3 bed 2 bath home built in 2004 with high ceilings, wood burning fireplace, almost 1500 sq. ft. great location in park with 2 to 3 car parking. Very large kitchen with newer stainless steel appliances (my large stainless steel refrigerator stay's) the kitchen ties into the dining area and living room to create one large room for the whole family to enjoy (includes my 11 ft couch and mounted color TV if you want it) the large master is in the back of the unit so it's quiet and holds my very large California king bed and end tables, attached to the master is a seperate retreat for an office or an extra sitting room or TV room. Large master bath with dual sinks and huge sunken tub with custom mirror that stay's. Dual pane windows throughout the unit and interior is all drywall and rounded or radius corners. Large shed in back with a 3 tier fountain that stays. The home has cameras outside that will stay. Central air and heat that works amazing. Indoor laundry and washer and dryer included. Custom brick planter and brick wrap around to the custom brick entryways and porches on both sides of the unit see the photos. ..

22. 2020-07-02
    listed $149,900 Active 1380-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1380 chars)

    This is a excellent family Park that is a gated community on the westside of Santa clarita near Valencia and the mall. Which means great schools, great shopping, Castaic lake 2 min away and freeway close with the bus stop on the corner. This Large 3 bed 2 bath home built in 2004 with high ceilings, wood burning fireplace, almost 1500 sq. ft. great location in park with 2 to 3 car parking. Very large kitchen with newer stainless steel appliances (my large stainless steel refrigerator stay's) the kitchen ties into the dining area and living room to create one large room for the whole family to enjoy (includes my 11 ft couch and mounted color TV if you want it) the large master is in the back of the unit so it's quiet and holds my very large California king bed and end tables, attached to the master is a seperate retreat for an office or an extra sitting room or TV room. Large master bath with dual sinks and huge sunken tub with custom mirror that stay's. Dual pane windows throughout the unit and interior is all drywall and rounded or radius corners. Large shed in back with a 3 tier fountain that stays. The home has cameras outside that will stay. Central air and heat that works amazing. Indoor laundry and washer and dryer included. Custom brick planter and brick wrap around to the custom brick entryways and porches on both sides of the unit see the photos. ..

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 8 d/yr ≥100°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 18 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,497
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,718
• − Property taxes: −$3,674
• − Insurance: −$1,224
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,000
• − Management: −$3,000
• − Depreciation: −$7,124
• Taxable income: $5,757
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,382
• After-tax cash flow: $7,931/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: William S. Hart Union High
• NCES district ID: 0642510
• Math proficiency: 52% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $95,844
• Composite: 58.6/100
• National rank: #2030
• State rank: #155 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Castaic

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #860
• US rank: #23477

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Castaic, CA
• Population (ZIP): 27,278

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 37% Two or more races 22% Asian 9% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.54%
• Current HPI: 319.9021
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+73.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $259,900 CRMLS
• 2026-04-19 Price Changed $259,900 CRMLS
• 2026-04-18 Coming Soon $259,000 CRMLS
• 2020-09-29 Sold (MLS) $132,500 CRMLS
• 2020-09-04 Pending — CRMLS
• 2020-07-25 Price Changed $139,000 CRMLS
• 2020-07-02 Listed $149,900 CRMLS