107 Hazelnut · Forney, TX 75126

$275,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,769 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 2004 7,841 sqft lot $155/sqft · 9% below area Est $306k · 10% under $38/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

9X16 COVERED PATIO MASTER BATH WITH SEPARATE GARDEN TUB AND SHOWER ENCLOSURE FULL SOD AND SEAMLESS GUTTERS EXCEPTIONALLY LANDSCAPED FRONT YARD AND TREE

Key facts

• 7,841 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: No second mortgage
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA with annual fee; includes full use of facilities; HOA managed by First Service Residential; Community features: community pool, park

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener and double doors; 2 covered parking spaces
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Cable available; Sidewalk
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential property
• Construction: Built in 2004; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Gutters; Wood fencing; Covered patio/porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite countertops; Kitchen island; Built-in cabinets; Dual sinks; Pantry; Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level with ensuite bath, garden tub, separate shower, dual sinks and walk-in closet; Three additional bedrooms on main level; all have walk-in closets; one bedroom is in a split-bedroom layout
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Granite counters; Pantry; Cable TV available; High-speed internet available; One living area; One dining area; Total of 8 rooms; One-level floorplan
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater; Utility room (5 x 5)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-276 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (17.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (15.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 4.1% in Forney — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Claybon El (math 55% / reading 58%, grade C+, #559 of 4,322 statewide, top 13%, 575 students, 35% FRL); Warren Middle (math 43% / reading 50%, grade D+, #443 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 903 students, 26% FRL); Forney H S (math 64% / reading 58%, grade C+, #258 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 2,272 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools at 29% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 55% at this address vs 42% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Forney ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2200 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $226,221 (17.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.30%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $305,619
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: -10.02%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
100 Lone Oak Ct	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,946 (+10%)	2mo	$280,000	$144	79
108 Elmwood Trl	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,905 (+8%)	5mo	$307,000	$161	74
101 Fieldwood Ct	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,936 (+9%)	8mo	$296,500	$153	72
313 Pinewood Trl	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,804 (+2%)	1mo	$245,000	$136	68
100 Hazelnut Trl	0.05mi	4/2.0	2,024 (+14%)	7mo	$285,000	$141	68
432 Creekwood Ct	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,865 (+5%)	2mo	$315,000	$169	65
303 Glen Oak Trl	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,808 (+2%)	7mo	$295,000	$163	65
532 Chestnut Trl	0.26mi	4/2.0	1,949 (+10%)	7mo	$279,000	$143	65
107 Vassar St	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,662 (-6%)	6mo	$269,000	$162	58
123 Stanford	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,638 (-7%)	2mo	$285,000	$174	56
401 E Church St	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,530 (-14%)	2mo	$315,000	$206	53
101 Vassar St	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,555 (-12%)	9mo	$265,000	$170	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-65,608
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.21×
• Total profit: $-93,514
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2200
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,312 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$508 /mo · $6,094/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$486
• Net cashflow: $-276

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,661

Max offer price $226,221

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-120	-5% $-198	+0% $-276	+5% $-354	+10% $-432
Rent	-10% $-459	-5% $-367	+0% $-276	+5% $-185	+10% $-93
Rate	-1.0pp $-138	-0.5pp $-206	base $-276	+0.5pp $-347	+1.0pp $-420

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
105 Fieldwood Ct Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1820	$2,400	$1.32	22d	1	0.14mi
308 Chinaberry Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1772	$1,950	$1.10	45d	1	0.24mi
321 S Chestnut St Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1831	$2,150	$1.17	26d	1	0.28mi
121 Princeton Cir Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1604	$2,095	$1.31	13d	1	0.29mi
315 Red Oak Ct Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1927	$2,100	$1.09	45d	1	0.35mi
413 Driftwood Ct Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1733	$1,999	$1.15	12d	1	0.52mi
413 Driftwood Ct Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1733	$2,000	$1.15	17d	1	0.52mi
124 Stanford Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1488	$1,800	$1.21	9d	1	0.54mi
300 Stanford Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1714	$1,999	$1.17	4d	1	0.60mi
731 Lauren Grove Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1832	$2,500	$1.36	0d	1	0.81mi
304 Burgett St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1417	$1,595	$1.13	45d	1	0.91mi
107 Huckleberry Rd Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2186	$2,900	$1.33	45d	1	0.95mi
517 Burgett St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,695	$1.32	4d	1	1.12mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $275,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $275,000 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,900 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,900 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $279,900 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $279,900 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,900 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,900 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    price $279,900 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,000 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,000 Active 23 DOM
17. 2026-05-08
    listed $289,000 Active 1133-char remark
18. 2004-06-28
    soldstatus 151-char remark

    Show marketing remark (151 chars)

    9X16 COVERED PATIO MASTER BATH WITH SEPARATE GARDEN TUB AND SHOWER ENCLOSURE FULL SOD AND SEAMLESS GUTTERS EXCEPTIONALLY LANDSCAPED FRONT YARD AND TREE

19. 2004-05-19
    historical 151-char remark

    Show marketing remark (151 chars)

    9X16 COVERED PATIO MASTER BATH WITH SEPARATE GARDEN TUB AND SHOWER ENCLOSURE FULL SOD AND SEAMLESS GUTTERS EXCEPTIONALLY LANDSCAPED FRONT YARD AND TREE

20. 2004-01-22
    listed $141,290 151-char remark

    Show marketing remark (151 chars)

    9X16 COVERED PATIO MASTER BATH WITH SEPARATE GARDEN TUB AND SHOWER ENCLOSURE FULL SOD AND SEAMLESS GUTTERS EXCEPTIONALLY LANDSCAPED FRONT YARD AND TREE

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,094 · $508/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,094 · $508/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,743
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$6,094
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,219
• − Management: −$2,219
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$8,025
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,926
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,388/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

Livability — Forney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #3339

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Forney, TX
• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• City population: 84,799
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+94.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Price Changed $275,000 NTREIS
• 2026-06-10 Price Changed $275,900 NTREIS
• 2026-06-01 Price Changed $279,900 NTREIS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $289,000 NTREIS
• 2004-06-28 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2004-05-19 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2004-01-22 Listed $141,290 NTREIS

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,094 · -0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.