3025 Tully Rd · Modesto, CA 95350

$1,995,000

8 bd · 8.0 ba · 4,232 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 112 Days on market

Built 1978 0.72 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 10 units. confirmed

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks

Don't miss this rare opportunity to own a well-maintained 10-unit complex in a highly desirable location. This attractive property offers spacious, thoughtfully designed units with upgraded amenities that appeal to today's renters and support strong occupancy potential. Residents enjoy access to a sparkling community pool, additional on-site parking, and well-kept common areas that enhance both comfort and convenience. The large unit layouts provide generous living spaces, making this complex stand out in the market. With its excellent location near shopping, dining, and major transportation routes, this property offers both stability and long-term growth potential. A solid addition to any

Key facts

• Community pool
• Common areas
• On-site parking

Tags

• 10 UNIT COMPLEX
• COMMUNITY POOL
• ON-SITE PARKING
• COMMON AREAS
• LARGE UNIT LAYOUTS
• EXCELLENT LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Income property with 10 units
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Total parking for about 20 vehicles; Carports; Covered parking; Detached parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Separate electric and gas meters; 220 volt electrical service; Irrigation from public district and other source
• Home design: Residential income property (garden apartments); 5 or more units (total 10 units); 2-story buildings; Built in 1978; Spanish tile roof
• Construction: Spanish tile roof
• Exterior features: Yard space; Auto sprinkler for front and rear; Irregular-shaped lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Free standing gas oven; Free standing electric oven; Dishwasher; Microwave; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Some units with 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: Some units with 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Fireplaces; Central cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Updated/remodeled units (varies by unit); Balcony/deck or uncovered patio in units; Dual pane partial windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in each unit; Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 10 × 2-bed/0.2-bath units multifamily listed at $2.00M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-324 ($-4k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-32/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.94M (2.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.59M (20.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.59M (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.2% in Modesto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#451 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D+, health & safety D+.
• Sylvan Union Elementary (urban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #457 of 1,400 in CA (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 161 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $15,925/mo this rent would consume 253% of the median local household income ($76k/yr) (locally 2163% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $14k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $60k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($1.82M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $1.60M; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,592,500 (20.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
4. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
5. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.70%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $846,400
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2840 Levon Ave	0.19mi	9/5.0 (+1)	4,142 (-2%)	3mo	$829,900	$200	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.25% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-356,113
• Equity at exit: $297,461

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-386,072
• Equity at exit: $172,491

Cash invested: $558,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95350

• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 161
• Price-to-rent: 104.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $15,925 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$10,462
• Tax from tax record: −$1,611 /mo · $19,332/yr
• Insurance: −$831
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,344
• Net cashflow: $-324

Break-even live

Break-even rent $16,335

Max offer price $1,937,847

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $806	-5% $241	+0% $-324	+5% $-888	+10% $-1,453
Rent	-10% $-1,582	-5% $-953	+0% $-324	+5% $306	+10% $935
Rate	-1.0pp $681	-0.5pp $184	base $-324	+0.5pp $-840	+1.0pp $-1,366

10-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 10× units	2	0.2	$15,930
Total (10 units)			$15,925

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $498,750
• Closing costs: $59,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,995,000 Active 112 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,995,000 Active 111 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,995,000 Active 110 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,995,000 Active 109 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $1,995,000 Active 107 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,995,000 Active 106 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $1,995,000 Active 104 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $2,095,000 Active 103 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $2,095,000 Active 102 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $2,095,000 Active 101 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $2,095,000 Active 98 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $2,095,000 Active 97 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $2,095,000 Active 96 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $2,095,000 Active 95 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $2,095,000 Active 94 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $2,095,000 Active 93 DOM
17. 2022-07-25
    price $1,650
18. 2019-12-04
    soldstatus $1,600,000
19. 2007-08-24
    soldstatus $875,000
20. 1994-02-23
    soldstatus $540,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $19,332 · $1,611/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $19,332 · $1,611/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 61% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $191,100
• − Mortgage interest: −$111,751
• − Property taxes: −$19,332
• − Insurance: −$9,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$15,288
• − Management: −$15,288
• − Depreciation: −$58,036
• Taxable loss: −$38,571
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$9,257
• After-tax cash flow: $5,375/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sylvan Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0638670
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $61,181
• Composite: 44.28/100
• National rank: #6167
• State rank: #457 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Modesto

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #451
• US rank: #15229

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute D Cost of living F Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Modesto, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 225,261
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 57,136
• Household income: $75,621
• Rent vs Own: 43.2% rent · 56.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2163.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 39% Two or more races 19% Asian 6% Black 5% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 23% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -555.05%
• Current HPI: 307.9532
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.25%
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-99.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2022-07-25 Price Changed $1,650 RENT.
• 2019-12-04 Sold (Public Records) $1,600,000 Public Records
• 2007-08-24 Sold (Public Records) $875,000 Public Records
• 1994-02-23 Sold (Public Records) $540,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $19,332 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.