400 W Baseline Rd #312 · Tempe, AZ 85283

$70,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 161 Days on market

Built 1975 Est $108k · 35% under ↓ 36% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy owning this RENOVATED 4-bedroom home in Tempe, AZ! From the moment you arrive, you'll notice the convenient carport parking and a cozy front patio that's ideal for enjoying your morning coffee. Freshly painted interior features wood-look flooring, ceiling fans, window blinds, bountiful natural light, and neutral tone that creates a warm, welcoming atmosphere. Designed with entertaining in mind, this gem offers both a large living room and a great room for flexible living. Upgraded kitchen comes with subway tile backsplash, crisp white cabinets, granite counters, SS appliances, recessed lighting, and a breakfast bar. Each bedroom provides a comfortable retreat, perfect for relaxation.

Key facts

• Wood-look flooring
• Front patio
• Ceiling fans

Tags

• CARPORT PARKING
• FRONT PATIO
• WOOD-LOOK FLOORING
• CEILING FANS
• NATURAL LIGHT
• LARGE LIVING ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Land lease of $967 per month; No association fees listed; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: 1 covered parking space; 1 carport space
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Wood siding and wood frame construction; Painted exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: East/West exposure; Gravel/stone front yard; Gravel/stone backyard; No fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Built-in microwave
• Bedrooms: Up to 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Granite counters; Breakfast bar; 9+ foot flat ceilings; No interior steps; Dual-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 31.0% vs local median 3.4% in Tempe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#10 in AZ, #2,527 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, health & safety D, crime F.
• Tempe School District (4258) (urban): math 17% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #170 of 249 in AZ (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Aguilar School (math 6% / reading 17%, grade F, #971 of 1,109 statewide, top 88%, 401 students, 64% FRL); Fees College Preparatory Middle School (math 10% / reading 18%, grade F, #164 of 218 statewide, top 76%, 789 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 141 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 88.30%
• DSCR: 4.93
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $108,000
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
400 W Baseline Rd #298	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	10mo	$85,000	$55	81
400 W Baseline Rd #281	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,320 (-8%)	3mo	$129,900	$98	80
400 W Baseline Rd #180	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+7%)	6mo	$103,000	$67	78
400 W Baseline Rd #215	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,320 (-8%)	11mo	$138,000	$105	77
400 W Baseline Rd #77	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,259 (-13%)	13mo	$95,000	$75	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 85.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.75×
• Total profit: $73,409
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 88.0%
• Equity multiple: 8.90×
• Total profit: $154,745
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85283

• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 141
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,438 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$88 /mo · $1,050/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$512
• Net cashflow: $1,442

Break-even live

Break-even rent $612

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 36%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,491	-5% $1,466	+0% $1,442	+5% $1,418	+10% $1,394
Rent	-10% $1,250	-5% $1,346	+0% $1,442	+5% $1,539	+10% $1,635
Rate	-1.0pp $1,478	-0.5pp $1,460	base $1,442	+0.5pp $1,424	+1.0pp $1,406

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
517 W Duke Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1426	$2,150	$1.51	2d	1	0.41mi
4711 S Grandview Ave Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1640	$2,400	$1.46	15d	1	0.42mi
5038 S Hardy Dr Tempe, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1082	$1,959	$1.81	2d	21	0.47mi
3907 S Farmer Ave Tempe, AZ	4.0	3.0	1868	$2,599	$1.39	22d	1	0.48mi
106 E Duke Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1478	$2,150	$1.45	24d	1	0.51mi
935 W Santa Cruz Dr Tempe, AZ	4.0	2.0	1551	$2,695	$1.74	11d	1	0.54mi
3937 S Mill Ave Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.5	1536	$2,195	$1.43	2d	1	0.63mi
208 E Oxford Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1535	$3,400	$2.21	24d	1	0.66mi
208 E Oxford Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1535	$3,400	$2.21	2d	1	0.66mi
528 W La Jolla Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1374	$2,399	$1.75	11d	1	0.67mi
3815 S Mill Ave Tempe, AZ	4.0	3.0	1536	$2,000	$1.30	2d	1	0.68mi
515 W Pebble Beach Dr Unit 513 Tempe, AZ	4.0	2.0	1100	$3,200	$2.91	2d	1	0.69mi
1133 W Baseline Rd Tempe, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	957	$2,100	$2.19	2d	1	0.70mi
5749 S Farmer Ave Tempe, AZ	4.0	2.0	1656	$2,595	$1.57	2d	1	0.70mi
3729 S Mill Ave Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,100	$0.69	22d	1	0.70mi
407 E Harvard Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1267	$2,299	$1.81	24d	1	0.71mi
951 W La Jolla Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1383	$3,500	$2.53	2d	1	0.72mi
1016 W Manhatton Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1736	$2,400	$1.38	18d	1	0.76mi
633 W Southern Ave #1147 Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	11d	1	0.78mi
1118 W Tulane Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1253	$2,879	$2.30	2d	1	0.84mi
909 W Malibu Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,850	$1.69	2d	1	0.84mi
506 E Hermosa Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1687	$1,700	$1.01	3d	1	0.85mi
910 W Yale Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,225	$1.39	2d	1	0.89mi
1210 W Tulane Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	1.0	910	$2,100	$2.31	2d	1	0.94mi
314 E Malibu Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1408	$2,000	$1.42	13d	1	0.98mi
703 E Auburn Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1308	$3,000	$2.29	2d	1	0.99mi
531 E Laguna Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1862	$2,550	$1.37	2d	1	1.00mi
427 E Malibu Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1274	$1,895	$1.49	2d	1	1.01mi
15 W Geneva Dr Tempe, AZ	4.0	2.0	1260	$2,748	$2.18	2d	1	1.02mi
3615 S Margo Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.5	1544	$3,000	$1.94	2d	1	1.02mi
523 E Malibu Dr Tempe, AZ	4.0	2.0	1862	$2,895	$1.55	2d	1	1.04mi
4630 S Lakeshore Dr Tempe, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1009	$2,005	$1.99	2d	22	1.04mi
705 E Hermosa Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1687	$1,400	$0.83	6d	1	1.06mi
3224 S El Camino Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1431	$3,200	$2.24	16d	1	1.07mi
5849 S College Ave Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1308	$2,395	$1.83	2d	1	1.11mi
6014 S College Ave Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1256	$1,995	$1.59	2d	1	1.15mi
6103 S Parkside Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1390	$1,000	$0.72	22d	1	1.15mi
425 E Julie Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1267	$2,306	$1.82	11d	1	1.18mi
1600 E La Jolla Dr Tempe, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	881	$2,335	$2.65	2d	26	1.23mi
1026 W Libra Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.5	1461	$2,200	$1.51	3d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 161 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 160 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 159 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 158 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 156 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 155 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Active 152 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $70,000 Active 151 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $70,000 Active 150 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $70,000 Active 147 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $70,000 Active 146 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $70,000 Active 145 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 144 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 143 DOM
15. 2026-04-13
    status Active
16. 2026-04-12
    historical
17. 2026-03-24
    price $80,000
18. 2026-02-12
    price $90,000
19. 2026-01-07
    listed $80,000 Active
20. 2023-09-22
    status Pending
21. 2023-09-22
    listed $75,000 Active
22. 2023-09-22
    historical
23. 2023-09-06
    status Pending
24. 2023-08-28
    status Pending
25. 2023-06-09
    price $75,000
26. 2023-05-11
    price $90,000
27. 2023-04-17
    status Active
28. 2023-04-13
    status Pending
29. 2023-03-28
    price $99,000
30. 2022-11-23
    price $110,000
31. 2022-08-27
    price $119,000
32. 2022-07-29
    listed $125,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,256
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,050
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,341
• − Management: −$2,341
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $17,218
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,132
• After-tax cash flow: $13,175/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tempe School District (4258)
• NCES district ID: 0408310
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $43,112
• Composite: 19.7/100
• National rank: #8721
• State rank: #170 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tempe

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #2527

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tempe, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 193,337
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 47,459
• Household income: $84,568
• Rent vs Own: 49.1% rent · 50.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2128.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 15% Asian 8% Black 7% Native American 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -390.57%
• Current HPI: 328.638
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.95%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-36.0% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-04-12 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $80,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $90,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-07 Listed $80,000 ARMLS
• 2023-09-22 Pending — ARMLS
• 2023-09-22 Listed $75,000 ARMLS
• 2023-09-22 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2023-09-06 Pending — ARMLS
• 2023-08-28 Pending — ARMLS
• 2023-06-09 Price Changed $75,000 ARMLS
• 2023-05-11 Price Changed $90,000 ARMLS
• 2023-04-17 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2023-04-13 Pending — ARMLS
• 2023-03-28 Price Changed $99,000 ARMLS
• 2022-11-23 Price Changed $110,000 ARMLS
• 2022-08-27 Price Changed $119,000 ARMLS
• 2022-07-29 Listed $125,000 ARMLS