12308 Urbino St · Warm Mineral Springs, FL 34287

$192,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,639 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1960 7,500 sqft lot $117/sqft · 58% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

INVESTOR ALERT! THIS HOUSE HAS THE OLD FLORIDA CHARM. THERE IS 2 BEDROOM AND 2 BATHROOM AND A LARGE LIVING AND DINING COMBINATION. APPLIANCES STAY. THERE IS ALSO A SEPARATE MOTHER IN LAW SUITE WITH SEPARATE ENTRANCE WITH A ROOM BATHROOM AND KITCHEN. THERE IS A SMALL FRESHWATER CANAL AND 2 SHEDS ON THE PROPERTY. IT IS IN NEED OF WORK BUT COULD MAKE A GREAT HOME OR INVESTMENT.

Key facts

• Separate entrance
• New flat roof
• Large backyard

Tags

• PRIVATE MOTHER-IN-LAW SUITE
• SEPARATE ENTRANCE
• LARGE BACKYARD
• VIEW OF CANAL
• THREE SEPARATE ENTRANCES
• NEW FLAT ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: RSF3
• Financial info: No lease restrictions
• HOA & community: No association; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Faces northeast
• Construction: Block construction; Other roof type; Slab foundation; Built on lot of approximately 0.17 acres
• Exterior features: Sliding doors; 75 ft freshwater canal frontage; Canal water view and access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Terrazzo
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Wall / window AC units
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Living room / dining room combo
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $192k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $270 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $192k).
• Recommended offer: $189k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#604 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Glenallen Elementary School (math 54% / reading 54%, grade C, #936 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 716 students, 79% FRL); Heron Creek Middle School (math 54% / reading 52%, grade C+, #209 of 571 statewide, top 37%, 902 students, 72% FRL); North Port High School (math 44% / reading 57%, grade D+, #171 of 667 statewide, top 26%, 2,562 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 42% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 857 active listings in the ZIP; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $115k; list at $192k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,120 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.02%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $415,263
• List price: $192,000
• Delta: -53.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-19,200
• Equity at exit: $28,628

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-15,087
• Equity at exit: $16,601

Cash invested: $53,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34287

• Home prices YoY: -20.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 857
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,969 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,007
• Tax from tax record: −$198 /mo · $2,382/yr
• Insurance: −$80
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $270

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,627

Max offer price $192,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $379	-5% $324	+0% $270	+5% $216	+10% $161
Rent	-10% $114	-5% $192	+0% $270	+5% $348	+10% $425
Rate	-1.0pp $367	-0.5pp $319	base $270	+0.5pp $220	+1.0pp $170

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,000
• Closing costs: $5,760
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-07
   listed $200,000 Active 983-char remark
2. 2018-10-24
   soldstatus $115,000
3. 2018-10-23
   soldstatus $115,000 Sold 378-char remark

   Show marketing remark (378 chars)

   INVESTOR ALERT! THIS HOUSE HAS THE OLD FLORIDA CHARM. THERE IS 2 BEDROOM AND 2 BATHROOM AND A LARGE LIVING AND DINING COMBINATION. APPLIANCES STAY. THERE IS ALSO A SEPARATE MOTHER IN LAW SUITE WITH SEPARATE ENTRANCE WITH A ROOM BATHROOM AND KITCHEN. THERE IS A SMALL FRESHWATER CANAL AND 2 SHEDS ON THE PROPERTY. IT IS IN NEED OF WORK BUT COULD MAKE A GREAT HOME OR INVESTMENT.

4. 2018-09-27
   status Pending 378-char remark

   Show marketing remark (378 chars)

   INVESTOR ALERT! THIS HOUSE HAS THE OLD FLORIDA CHARM. THERE IS 2 BEDROOM AND 2 BATHROOM AND A LARGE LIVING AND DINING COMBINATION. APPLIANCES STAY. THERE IS ALSO A SEPARATE MOTHER IN LAW SUITE WITH SEPARATE ENTRANCE WITH A ROOM BATHROOM AND KITCHEN. THERE IS A SMALL FRESHWATER CANAL AND 2 SHEDS ON THE PROPERTY. IT IS IN NEED OF WORK BUT COULD MAKE A GREAT HOME OR INVESTMENT.

5. 2018-08-15
   listed $130,000 Active 378-char remark

   Show marketing remark (378 chars)

   INVESTOR ALERT! THIS HOUSE HAS THE OLD FLORIDA CHARM. THERE IS 2 BEDROOM AND 2 BATHROOM AND A LARGE LIVING AND DINING COMBINATION. APPLIANCES STAY. THERE IS ALSO A SEPARATE MOTHER IN LAW SUITE WITH SEPARATE ENTRANCE WITH A ROOM BATHROOM AND KITCHEN. THERE IS A SMALL FRESHWATER CANAL AND 2 SHEDS ON THE PROPERTY. IT IS IN NEED OF WORK BUT COULD MAKE A GREAT HOME OR INVESTMENT.

6. 2005-05-22
   listed $299,000
7. 1992-03-09
   soldstatus $49,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,382 · $198/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,382 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 57% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,624
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,755
• − Property taxes: −$2,382
• − Insurance: −$960
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,890
• − Management: −$1,890
• − Depreciation: −$5,585
• Taxable income: $162
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$39
• After-tax cash flow: $3,200/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — Warm Mineral Springs

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #604
• US rank: #11606

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warm Mineral Springs, FL
• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,929
• Household income: $63,464
• Rent vs Own: 19.1% rent · 80.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 522.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.89%
• Current HPI: 280.8484
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.26%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+287.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-23 Price Changed $192,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-07 Listed $200,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-24 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2018-10-23 Sold (MLS) $115,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-27 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-15 Listed $130,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-05-22 Listed $299,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1992-03-09 Sold (Public Records) $49,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,382 · -3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.