11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #191 · Surprise, AZ 85378

$120,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,904 sqft · Manufactured · 101 Days on market

Built 1998 Fair condition $63/sqft · 34% above area Est $90k · 34% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

This Gorgeous 3bed 2bath Home Is the ONE!! Beautiful throughout! VERY SPACIOUS Living space , Kitchen, and Dining area. This Immaculate home has everything you need! Vaulted ceilings, skylights, Fireplace, And so much more!! Enjoying this Amazing retreat located In the 55+Community of Rose Garden resort. With lots of Active amenities all year long!

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 1998

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $762 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $109k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.9% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.5%/yr); 80 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $212 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.2% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $39k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $92k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,200 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.22%
• DSCR: 2.21
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $89,609
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: 33.91%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #17	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,904 (0%)	17mo	$120,000	$63	82
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #325	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,904 (0%)	17mo	$125,000	$66	81
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #15	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,904 (0%)	19mo	$135,000	$71	80
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #193	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,904 (0%)	23mo	$180,000	$95	76
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #20	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,716 (-10%)	6mo	$50,000	$29	74
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #131	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (-12%)	5mo	$122,000	$73	66
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #339	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,680 (-12%)	16mo	$99,000	$59	62
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #261	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,624 (-15%)	12mo	$149,900	$92	61
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #36	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,708 (-10%)	12mo	$135,000	$79	55
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #144	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (-12%)	19mo	$115,000	$68	55
16101 N El Mirage Rd #361	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,792 (-6%)	12mo	$164,000	$92	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.18% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $40,156
• Equity at exit: $35,909

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.73×
• Total profit: $91,660
• Equity at exit: $44,024

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85378

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: -5.5%
• Active inventory: 80
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,014 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,800/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $762

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,050

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $845	-5% $804	+0% $762	+5% $721	+10% $679
Rent	-10% $603	-5% $683	+0% $762	+5% $842	+10% $921
Rate	-1.0pp $823	-0.5pp $793	base $762	+0.5pp $731	+1.0pp $699

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11425 W Pinehollow Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1571	$2,100	$1.34	0d	1	0.23mi
11402 W Hutton Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,800	$1.12	25d	1	0.27mi
11345 W Loma Blanca Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,930	$1.41	45d	1	0.32mi
16608 N 113th Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1571	$1,900	$1.21	45d	1	0.34mi
11554 W Mule Deer Ct Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1963	$1,816	$0.93	45d	1	0.56mi
17590 N 114th Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	3.0	1737	$1,695	$0.98	6d	1	0.75mi
17590 N 114th Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1737	$1,695	$0.98	25d	1	0.75mi
12121 W Ironwood St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,999	$1.19	25d	1	0.80mi
12134 W Ironwood St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,950	$1.16	25d	1	0.81mi
12128 W Tara Ln El Mirage, AZ	4.0	3.0	2117	$2,145	$1.01	19d	1	0.83mi
12128 W Tara Ln El Mirage, AZ	4.0	3.0	2117	$2,095	$0.99	0d	1	0.83mi
15204 N El Frio Ct El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.5	1978	$2,019	$1.02	4d	1	0.85mi
12204 W Ocotillo Ln El Mirage, AZ	4.0	3.0	2117	$1,949	$0.92	25d	1	0.88mi
15109 N Verbena St El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1642	$1,869	$1.14	45d	1	0.95mi
14815 N Tonya Cir El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1642	$2,040	$1.24	45d	1	0.96mi
14809 N El Frio Cir El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,300	$1.35	25d	1	1.00mi
14809 N El Frio Cir El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1459	$2,199	$1.51	23d	1	1.00mi
11439 W Ashley Chantil Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	1949	$1,995	$1.02	45d	1	1.02mi
11759 W Banff Ln El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.5	1495	$2,000	$1.34	45d	1	1.06mi
11429 W Austin Thomas Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1536	$1,875	$1.22	0d	1	1.07mi
11429 W Austin Thomas Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1536	$1,875	$1.22	45d	1	1.07mi
11175 W Ashley Chantil Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	2455	$2,795	$1.14	25d	1	1.11mi
16520 N Greasewood St Surprise, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.5	1267	$1,850	$1.46	3d	17	1.16mi
11476 W Madisen Ellise Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1301	$2,070	$1.59	45d	1	1.16mi
11319 W Madisen Ellise Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	1949	$2,500	$1.28	25d	1	1.20mi
11319 W Madisen Ellise Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	1949	$2,500	$1.28	45d	1	1.20mi
11755 W Thompson Ranch Rd El Mirage, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$2,703	$2.89	0d	1	1.40mi
14715 N 124th Ave El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1534	$2,010	$1.31	45d	1	1.46mi
12817 W Cottonwood St Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.0	1795	$1,300	$0.72	4d	1	1.48mi
12438 W Hearn Rd El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1308	$1,595	$1.22	0d	1	1.49mi
12438 W Hearn Rd El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1308	$1,595	$1.22	25d	1	1.49mi
12437 W Via Camille El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1534	$1,875	$1.22	18d	1	1.50mi
12437 W Via Camille El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1534	$1,875	$1.22	0d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $120,000 Active 101 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   remarks 383-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 95 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 93 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   price $120,000 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,000 Active 89 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,000 Active 88 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,000 Active 87 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $129,000 Active 84 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,000 Active 83 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,000 Active 82 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,000 Active 81 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,000 Active 80 DOM
17. 2026-05-14
    price $129,000 350-char remark

    Show marketing remark (350 chars)

    This Gorgeous 3bed 2bath Home Is the ONE!! Beautiful throughout! VERY SPACIOUS Living space , Kitchen, and Dining area. This Immaculate home has everything you need! Vaulted ceilings, skylights, Fireplace, And so much more!! Enjoying this Amazing retreat located In the 55+Community of Rose Garden resort. With lots of Active amenities all year long!

18. 2026-05-03
    price $133,000 350-char remark

    Show marketing remark (350 chars)

    This Gorgeous 3bed 2bath Home Is the ONE!! Beautiful throughout! VERY SPACIOUS Living space , Kitchen, and Dining area. This Immaculate home has everything you need! Vaulted ceilings, skylights, Fireplace, And so much more!! Enjoying this Amazing retreat located In the 55+Community of Rose Garden resort. With lots of Active amenities all year long!

19. 2026-04-15
    price $139,000 350-char remark

    Show marketing remark (350 chars)

    This Gorgeous 3bed 2bath Home Is the ONE!! Beautiful throughout! VERY SPACIOUS Living space , Kitchen, and Dining area. This Immaculate home has everything you need! Vaulted ceilings, skylights, Fireplace, And so much more!! Enjoying this Amazing retreat located In the 55+Community of Rose Garden resort. With lots of Active amenities all year long!

20. 2026-04-02
    price $149,000 350-char remark

    Show marketing remark (350 chars)

    This Gorgeous 3bed 2bath Home Is the ONE!! Beautiful throughout! VERY SPACIOUS Living space , Kitchen, and Dining area. This Immaculate home has everything you need! Vaulted ceilings, skylights, Fireplace, And so much more!! Enjoying this Amazing retreat located In the 55+Community of Rose Garden resort. With lots of Active amenities all year long!

21. 2026-03-31
    price $154,000 350-char remark

    Show marketing remark (350 chars)

    This Gorgeous 3bed 2bath Home Is the ONE!! Beautiful throughout! VERY SPACIOUS Living space , Kitchen, and Dining area. This Immaculate home has everything you need! Vaulted ceilings, skylights, Fireplace, And so much more!! Enjoying this Amazing retreat located In the 55+Community of Rose Garden resort. With lots of Active amenities all year long!

22. 2026-03-11
    listed $159,000 Active 350-char remark

    Show marketing remark (350 chars)

    This Gorgeous 3bed 2bath Home Is the ONE!! Beautiful throughout! VERY SPACIOUS Living space , Kitchen, and Dining area. This Immaculate home has everything you need! Vaulted ceilings, skylights, Fireplace, And so much more!! Enjoying this Amazing retreat located In the 55+Community of Rose Garden resort. With lots of Active amenities all year long!

23. 2021-05-07
    soldstatus $92,500 Closed 1453-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1453 chars)

    Impeccably clean Palm Harbor home in the Adult 55+ Community of Rose Garden. As you walk into the home, you are greeted with a spacious white kitchen that has a full appliance package and walk in pantry. The large living room features a fireplace and beautiful upper windows for natural sunlight. The dining room has a built in hutch and has the space for a dinette of 6+ individuals. The master bedroom has a walk in closet and plenty of space for large furniture. The master bath has dual sink, garden tub, and separate walk in shower. There are two additional bedrooms. Laundry room has upper cabinets for storage. The screened in porch is perfect for relaxing and being in the outdoors. The storage shed has tons of room. There is covered parking for 3 small vehicles or 2 large with a golf cart. Additional features include 2021 New Roof with Warranty, 2019 leveled, Removed solid wall that was separating kitchen/living areas, remote control ceiling fans, kitchen faucet with soap dispenser, Waterpik shower heads both baths, Kwikset keyless entry, new flooring in the kitchen, both baths, laundry and porch entry, programmable thermostat, stove vent filters, replacement of both skylights, New drapes, recessed lighting in Kitchen, All air vents cleaned, new PBC pipe laid for irrigation on carport side, motion detecting light fixtures both sides of home and more. This is a land lease with a monthly fee of $683.90. Do not wait to call it home.

24. 2021-04-18
    historical Contract Contingent on Buyer Sale 1453-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1453 chars)

    Impeccably clean Palm Harbor home in the Adult 55+ Community of Rose Garden. As you walk into the home, you are greeted with a spacious white kitchen that has a full appliance package and walk in pantry. The large living room features a fireplace and beautiful upper windows for natural sunlight. The dining room has a built in hutch and has the space for a dinette of 6+ individuals. The master bedroom has a walk in closet and plenty of space for large furniture. The master bath has dual sink, garden tub, and separate walk in shower. There are two additional bedrooms. Laundry room has upper cabinets for storage. The screened in porch is perfect for relaxing and being in the outdoors. The storage shed has tons of room. There is covered parking for 3 small vehicles or 2 large with a golf cart. Additional features include 2021 New Roof with Warranty, 2019 leveled, Removed solid wall that was separating kitchen/living areas, remote control ceiling fans, kitchen faucet with soap dispenser, Waterpik shower heads both baths, Kwikset keyless entry, new flooring in the kitchen, both baths, laundry and porch entry, programmable thermostat, stove vent filters, replacement of both skylights, New drapes, recessed lighting in Kitchen, All air vents cleaned, new PBC pipe laid for irrigation on carport side, motion detecting light fixtures both sides of home and more. This is a land lease with a monthly fee of $683.90. Do not wait to call it home.

25. 2021-04-07
    listed $100,000 Active 1453-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1453 chars)

    Impeccably clean Palm Harbor home in the Adult 55+ Community of Rose Garden. As you walk into the home, you are greeted with a spacious white kitchen that has a full appliance package and walk in pantry. The large living room features a fireplace and beautiful upper windows for natural sunlight. The dining room has a built in hutch and has the space for a dinette of 6+ individuals. The master bedroom has a walk in closet and plenty of space for large furniture. The master bath has dual sink, garden tub, and separate walk in shower. There are two additional bedrooms. Laundry room has upper cabinets for storage. The screened in porch is perfect for relaxing and being in the outdoors. The storage shed has tons of room. There is covered parking for 3 small vehicles or 2 large with a golf cart. Additional features include 2021 New Roof with Warranty, 2019 leveled, Removed solid wall that was separating kitchen/living areas, remote control ceiling fans, kitchen faucet with soap dispenser, Waterpik shower heads both baths, Kwikset keyless entry, new flooring in the kitchen, both baths, laundry and porch entry, programmable thermostat, stove vent filters, replacement of both skylights, New drapes, recessed lighting in Kitchen, All air vents cleaned, new PBC pipe laid for irrigation on carport side, motion detecting light fixtures both sides of home and more. This is a land lease with a monthly fee of $683.90. Do not wait to call it home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,173
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,800
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,934
• − Management: −$1,934
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $7,693
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,846
• After-tax cash flow: $7,299/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This home requires moderate renovations to bring it up to a fair condition, with a focus on kitchen and bathroom updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen appliances — Old and worn
• Major Bathroom fixtures — Old and worn
• Moderate Exterior siding — Weathered
• Major Flooring — Worn and uneven
• Major Interior walls/paint — Chipped and worn

Value-add opportunities

• Resale New kitchen appliances — Modern appliances enhance appeal
• Resale New bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures improve functionality
• Both Paint job — Fresh paint improves curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping enhances curb appeal and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen appliances · Old and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathroom fixtures · Old and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior siding · Weathered	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Flooring · Worn and uneven	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior walls/paint · Chipped and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$63,000–215,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale New kitchen appliances — Modern appliances enhance appeal ↑
• Resale New bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures improve functionality ↑
• Both Paint job — Fresh paint improves curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping enhances curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 9,765
• Household income: $56,444
• Rent vs Own: 38.0% rent · 62.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 510.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 22% Arabic 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.18%
• Current HPI: 287.1228
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.53%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+29.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $129,000 ARMLS
• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $133,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $139,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $149,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $154,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $159,000 ARMLS
• 2021-05-07 Sold (MLS) $92,500 ARMLS
• 2021-04-18 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2021-04-07 Listed $100,000 ARMLS