91 S Bristol Ave · Lockport, NY 14094

$145,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,860 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1837 Est $188k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Why Rent when you can own for less! Great starter home! 4 bedroom, large attic space on 2nd floor that could be turned into master bedroom, lots of potential! Home is in need of some updates. Home is being sold & quot; AS IS& quot; and home owner will make no repairs. Neighborhood Description Quiet street in a good neighborhood. Low crime, close to stores and downtown.

Key facts

• Built 1837
• Listed 31 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $174 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.5% in Lockport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in NY, #3,669 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute D+, crime F, employment D-.
• Lockport City School District (town): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #452 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 362 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price; built in 1837 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $140,650 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1837 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.14%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $187,860
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
90 S New York St	0.05mi	4/2.5	1,950 (+5%)	17mo	$165,000	$85	69
101 Webb St	0.08mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,684 (-10%)	9mo	$180,000	$107	66
12 Harvey Ave	0.64mi	4/1.5	1,902 (+2%)	12mo	$150,000	$79	54
28 Minard St	0.47mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,688 (-9%)	9mo	$85,000	$50	51
180 Park Ave	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,627 (-12%)	13mo	$160,000	$98	51
270 Grand St	0.73mi	4/2.0	1,968 (+6%)	2mo	$195,000	$99	51
109 Minard St	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (-14%)	8mo	$194,000	$121	47
27 Saxton St	0.61mi	4/2.0	1,672 (-10%)	6mo	$72,000	$43	46
70 Minard St	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,656 (-11%)	11mo	$185,017	$112	45
26 Amelia St	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,615 (-13%)	9mo	$179,000	$111	44
152 N Transit St	0.71mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,584 (-15%)	10mo	$160,000	$101	27
390 Prospect St	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,668 (-10%)	21mo	$185,000	$111	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-11,204
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $9,560
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14094

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 362
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,646 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$305 /mo · $3,665/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $174

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,426

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $256	-5% $215	+0% $174	+5% $133	+10% $92
Rent	-10% $44	-5% $109	+0% $174	+5% $239	+10% $304
Rate	-1.0pp $247	-0.5pp $211	base $174	+0.5pp $136	+1.0pp $98

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $145,000 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $145,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $145,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $145,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 11 DOM
17. 2026-05-21
    listed $145,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,665 · $305/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,665 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,748
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$3,665
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,580
• − Management: −$1,580
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$142
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$34
• After-tax cash flow: $2,121/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lockport City School District
• NCES district ID: 3617670
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,793
• Composite: 39.28/100
• National rank: #3997
• State rank: #452 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lockport

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3669

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lockport, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 50,153
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 50,153
• Household income: $75,427
• Rent vs Own: 28.1% rent · 71.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1112.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 6% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -262.57%
• Current HPI: 303.6109
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $145,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+22.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,665 · +19.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.