8865 E Baseline Rd #1233 · Mesa, AZ 85209

$115,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 748 sqft · Manufactured · 892 Days on market

Built 2023 Excellent condition $155/sqft · 21% above area Est $96k · 21% over ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

55+ age qualified community. This amazing little villa is in a great location at the Monte Vista Village Resort! Half a block from all amenities and the clubhouse. This 1+1 has lots of storage space in the Master Bedroom. The master En-suite has double sinks and a full sized walk-in shower. The +1 Den can be used as a second bedroom, with its own guest bathroom. The kitchen boasts beautiful white cabinetry with all four stainless steel appliances. The stove is an airfyer and convection oven! No need to get the one you hide in the cupboards! All new furniture has been added, including a stackable washer/dryer unit. There's so much to this cozy little home that you just have to see it! Give us a call at 480-357-1323 to book your viewing!

Key facts

• Built 2023
• Listed 891 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $116k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $116k).
• Recommended offer: $102k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.5% vs local median 3.4% in Mesa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#6 in AZ, #2,034 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D.
• Gilbert Unified District (4239) (suburban): math 49% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #38 of 249 in AZ (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 165 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($801 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 0.5% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 892 days — a 12% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $101,992 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 892 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.75%
• DSCR: 2.95
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $96,000
• List price: $115,900
• Delta: 20.73%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8865 E Baseline Rd #1232	0.00mi	2/2.0	748 (0%)	1mo	$96,000	$128	99
8865 E Baseline Rd #1218	0.00mi	2/2.0	748 (0%)	16mo	$135,000	$180	87
8865 E Baseline Rd #441	0.20mi	1/1.0 (-1)	656 (-12%)	6mo	$29,950	$46	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.44% appreciation · 0.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 44.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.28×
• Total profit: $74,003
• Equity at exit: $42,244

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.02×
• Total profit: $162,839
• Equity at exit: $58,270

Cash invested: $32,452 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85209

• Home prices YoY: 0.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,511 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$608
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$145 /mo · $1,738/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$527
• Net cashflow: $1,183

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,014

Max offer price $115,900

Occupancy floor 48%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,975
• Closing costs: $3,477
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8865 E Baseline Rd #1129 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	748	$3,200	$4.28	5d	1	0.03mi
8865 E Baseline Rd #405 Mesa, AZ	2.0	1.5	619	$1,900	$3.07	44d	1	0.22mi
8915 E Guadalupe Rd Mesa, AZ	1.0	1.0	616	$1,164	$1.89	44d	1	0.82mi
8433 E Guadalupe Rd Mesa, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$2,772	$2.96	1d	1	0.95mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2025-05-24
   price $115,900 745-char remark

   Show marketing remark (745 chars)

   55+ age qualified community. This amazing little villa is in a great location at the Monte Vista Village Resort! Half a block from all amenities and the clubhouse. This 1+1 has lots of storage space in the Master Bedroom. The master En-suite has double sinks and a full sized walk-in shower. The +1 Den can be used as a second bedroom, with its own guest bathroom. The kitchen boasts beautiful white cabinetry with all four stainless steel appliances. The stove is an airfyer and convection oven! No need to get the one you hide in the cupboards! All new furniture has been added, including a stackable washer/dryer unit. There's so much to this cozy little home that you just have to see it! Give us a call at 480-357-1323 to book your viewing!

2. 2025-04-09
   price $124,500 745-char remark

   Show marketing remark (745 chars)

   55+ age qualified community. This amazing little villa is in a great location at the Monte Vista Village Resort! Half a block from all amenities and the clubhouse. This 1+1 has lots of storage space in the Master Bedroom. The master En-suite has double sinks and a full sized walk-in shower. The +1 Den can be used as a second bedroom, with its own guest bathroom. The kitchen boasts beautiful white cabinetry with all four stainless steel appliances. The stove is an airfyer and convection oven! No need to get the one you hide in the cupboards! All new furniture has been added, including a stackable washer/dryer unit. There's so much to this cozy little home that you just have to see it! Give us a call at 480-357-1323 to book your viewing!

3. 2024-09-09
   price $144,900 745-char remark

   Show marketing remark (745 chars)

   55+ age qualified community. This amazing little villa is in a great location at the Monte Vista Village Resort! Half a block from all amenities and the clubhouse. This 1+1 has lots of storage space in the Master Bedroom. The master En-suite has double sinks and a full sized walk-in shower. The +1 Den can be used as a second bedroom, with its own guest bathroom. The kitchen boasts beautiful white cabinetry with all four stainless steel appliances. The stove is an airfyer and convection oven! No need to get the one you hide in the cupboards! All new furniture has been added, including a stackable washer/dryer unit. There's so much to this cozy little home that you just have to see it! Give us a call at 480-357-1323 to book your viewing!

4. 2023-12-17
   listed $149,900 Active 745-char remark

   Show marketing remark (745 chars)

   55+ age qualified community. This amazing little villa is in a great location at the Monte Vista Village Resort! Half a block from all amenities and the clubhouse. This 1+1 has lots of storage space in the Master Bedroom. The master En-suite has double sinks and a full sized walk-in shower. The +1 Den can be used as a second bedroom, with its own guest bathroom. The kitchen boasts beautiful white cabinetry with all four stainless steel appliances. The stove is an airfyer and convection oven! No need to get the one you hide in the cupboards! All new furniture has been added, including a stackable washer/dryer unit. There's so much to this cozy little home that you just have to see it! Give us a call at 480-357-1323 to book your viewing!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,137
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,492
• − Property taxes: −$1,738
• − Insurance: −$580
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,411
• − Management: −$2,411
• − Depreciation: −$3,372
• Taxable income: $13,133
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,152
• After-tax cash flow: $11,044/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This manufactured home is in excellent condition with modern appliances and a well-maintained exterior. It's move-in ready and would be a great investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace blinds — Freshen up the look and improve light control

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace blinds — Freshen up the look and improve light control ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gilbert Unified District (4239)
• NCES district ID: 0403400
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $74,715
• Composite: 45.55/100
• National rank: #2600
• State rank: #38 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Mesa

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #2034

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime D Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mesa, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 555,266
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 43,150
• Household income: $84,432
• Rent vs Own: 26.9% rent · 73.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 972.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.44%
• Current HPI: 277.6198
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.54%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-22.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-05-24 Price Changed $115,900 Zillow
• 2025-04-09 Price Changed $124,500 Zillow
• 2024-09-09 Price Changed $144,900 Zillow
• 2023-12-17 Listed $149,900 Zillow