276 Ash Dr · Tobyhanna, PA 18334

$243,800

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 110 Days on market

Built 1976 0.45 ac lot $221/sqft · 15% below area Est $288k · 15% under $100/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This nice bi-level home is located in amenity filled Emerald Lakes and features 3 bedrooms, 1 bath, living room with wood burning fireplace and some hardwood floors. Built in 1976 this home is a short drive to ski slopes, shopping, dining and more.

Key facts

• Hardwood floors
• 0.45 acre lot
• Garage

Tags

• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• SHORT DRIVE TO SKI SLOPES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $244k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $88 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (4.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pocono Mountain SD (rural): math 37% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #245 of 539 in PA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 108 active listings in the ZIP; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $200k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $221,858 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.54%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $288,239
• List price: $243,800
• Delta: -15.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
428 Cedar Dr	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,094 (-1%)	2mo	$292,500	$267	76
594 Sullivan Trl	0.36mi	3/1.5	1,176 (+6%)	8mo	$255,000	$217	64
300 Cedar Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,156 (+5%)	10mo	$401,000	$347	61
208 Ash Dr	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,152 (+4%)	23mo	$240,000	$208	61
2248 Doe Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	960 (-13%)	14mo	$218,000	$227	52
3307 Black Cherry Ct	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-9%)	8mo	$85,000	$84	51
317 Clearview Dr	0.30mi	3/1.5	1,200 (+9%)	23mo	$273,000	$228	51
636 Sullivan Trl	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,008 (-9%)	20mo	$210,000	$208	50
1043 Cricket Ln	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-9%)	20mo	$270,000	$268	47
640 Sullivan Trl	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,257 (+14%)	20mo	$292,500	$233	39
2419 Grey Birch Ln	0.75mi	3/1.0	1,248 (+13%)	7mo	$211,000	$169	37
915 Cricket Ln	0.59mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,260 (+14%)	12mo	$250,000	$198	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-12,110
• Equity at exit: $59,461

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $17,425
• Equity at exit: $62,960

Cash invested: $68,264 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18334

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 108
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,331 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,279
• Tax from tax record: −$273 /mo · $3,281/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$489
• Net cashflow: $88

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,220

Max offer price $243,800

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $226	-5% $157	+0% $88	+5% $19	+10% $-50
Rent	-10% $-96	-5% $-4	+0% $88	+5% $180	+10% $272
Rate	-1.0pp $211	-0.5pp $150	base $88	+0.5pp $25	+1.0pp $-40

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,950
• Closing costs: $7,314
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $243,800 Active 110 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $243,800 Active 107 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $243,800 Active 106 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $243,800 Active 105 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $243,800 Active 104 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $243,800 Active 102 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $243,800 Active 101 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $243,800 Active 99 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $243,800 Active 97 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $243,800 Active 96 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $243,800 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $243,800 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $243,800 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $243,800 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-03-02
    listed $243,800 Active 248-char remark

    Show marketing remark (248 chars)

    This nice bi-level home is located in amenity filled Emerald Lakes and features 3 bedrooms, 1 bath, living room with wood burning fireplace and some hardwood floors. Built in 1976 this home is a short drive to ski slopes, shopping, dining and more.

16. 2007-01-05
    soldstatus $200,000
17. 1992-08-31
    soldstatus $76,900
18. 1988-09-06
    soldstatus $78,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,281 · $273/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,566 · $297/mo
• Expected delta: +$286/yr (+$24/mo · 8.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,970
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,657
• − Property taxes: −$3,281
• − Insurance: −$1,219
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,238
• − Management: −$2,238
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$7,092
• Taxable loss: −$2,954
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$709
• After-tax cash flow: $1,763/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pocono Mountain SD
• NCES district ID: 4219500
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,317
• Composite: 39.91/100
• National rank: #3856
• State rank: #245 of 539 in PA

Livability — Tobyhanna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Emerald Lakes, PA
• Population (ZIP): 4,907

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,099 people
• By 2030: 161,412 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 154,616 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 146,710 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 140,830 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 138,472 · -15.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 12% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 17%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 10% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.1% · R 49.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.1pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: D+6.4 2016: D+0.3 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 178.5307
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+212.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-02 Listed $243,800 LCAR
• 2007-01-05 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
• 1992-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $76,900 Public Records
• 1988-09-06 Sold (Public Records) $78,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,281 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.