39 Long Beach Ln · Noyack, NY 11963

$3,495,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,380 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 2026 $2533/sqft · 212% above area Est $2918k · 20% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.6/10.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Cash flow +4.4/30.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Key facts

• Built 2026

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Single family property

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 4.5 bathrooms
• Interior features: Approximately 3,600 square feet of living area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $3.50M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-9k ($-109k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $2.18M (37.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.91M (45.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.91M (45.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.2% vs local median 7.1% in Noyack — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,084 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Sag Harbor Union Free School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #175 of 590 in NY (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Sag Harbor Elementary School (math 47% / reading 72%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 426 students, 22% FRL); Pierson Middle/High School (math 61% / reading 72%, grade B, #763 of 1,100 statewide, top 69%, 525 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools average 24% FRL vs 8% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.8%/yr); 66 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $19,056/mo this rent would consume 179% of the median local household income ($128k/yr) (locally 95% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $345k of equity ($24k loan paydown + $321k appreciation (9.2% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$554k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($3.39M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $1,905,606 (45.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.16%
• DSCR: 0.50
• GRM: 15.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,917,641
• List price: $3,495,000
• Delta: 19.79%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5 Valley Rd	0.27mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,416 (+3%)	11mo	$1,050,000	$742	69
38 Oak Dr	0.33mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,300 (-6%)	16mo	$1,381,592	$1,063	53
16 Dogwood St	0.53mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,380 (0%)	18mo	$1,095,000	$793	51
22 Pine Crest Ln	0.53mi	2/1.0	1,233 (-11%)	13mo	$1,210,000	$981	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.19% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $1,232,107
• Equity at exit: $2,943,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.39×
• Total profit: $4,292,195
• Equity at exit: $6,141,254

Cash invested: $978,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11963

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Rents YoY: 10.8%
• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 15.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $19,056 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$18,328
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$4,369 /mo · $52,425/yr
• Insurance: −$1,456
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,002
• Net cashflow: $-9,099

Break-even live

Break-even rent $30,574

Max offer price $2,178,379

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-6,684	-5% $-7,891	+0% $-9,099	+5% $-10,307	+10% $-11,514
Rent	-10% $-10,604	-5% $-9,852	+0% $-9,099	+5% $-8,346	+10% $-7,593
Rate	-1.0pp $-7,339	-0.5pp $-8,210	base $-9,099	+0.5pp $-10,005	+1.0pp $-10,926

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $873,750
• Closing costs: $104,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
47 Cliff Dr Sag Harbor, NY	3.0	2.0	1360	$8,000	$5.88	20d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $3,495,000 Coming Soon 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $3,495,000 Coming Soon 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $3,495,000 Coming Soon 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $3,495,000 Coming Soon 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $3,495,000 Coming Soon 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $3,495,000 Coming Soon 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $3,495,000 Coming Soon 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $3,495,000 Coming Soon 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $3,495,000 Coming Soon 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $3,495,000 Coming Soon 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $3,495,000 Coming Soon 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $3,495,000 Coming Soon 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $3,495,000 Coming Soon 26 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $3,495,000 Coming Soon 25 DOM
15. 2025-08-27
    soldstatus $1,350,000
16. 2015-10-08
    soldstatus $490,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $228,673
• − Mortgage interest: −$195,774
• − Property taxes: −$52,425
• − Insurance: −$17,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$18,294
• − Management: −$18,294
• − Depreciation: −$101,673
• Taxable loss: −$175,262
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$42,063
• After-tax cash flow: $-67,124/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sag Harbor Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3625380
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $81,547
• Composite: 55.69/100
• National rank: #1222
• State rank: #175 of 590 in NY

Livability — Noyack

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1084
• US rank: #21915

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing D+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Noyack, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 8,114
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 8,390
• Household income: $127,746
• Rent vs Own: 16.3% rent · 83.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 95.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Asian 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.19%
• Current HPI: 499.3304
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.76%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B