Lancia's Jordan Plan · New Haven, IN 46774

$208,800

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,314 sqft · SingleFamily · 300 Days on market

Poor condition $26/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

THIS IS A SAMPLE PLAN - THIS IS NOT A HOME FOR SALE. Lancia's Jordan is a very open floorplan, with a cathedral ceiling in the Great Room that faces the Nook and Kitchen. Customize this home to fit your lifestyle by transforming the 3rd Bedroom into an Office or Bonus Room. A full or partial basement is available with additional base price cost due to staircase placement. * Base price does not include land

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 300 days

🏗️ New construction. The $208,800 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $235,818.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $209k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-82 ($-983/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (4.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.9% in New Haven — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#149 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D+, employment D, amenities F.
• East Allen County Schools (suburban): math 36% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #122 of 301 in IN (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 176 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,861 units permitted in Allen County in 2024 (576 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Allen County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 300 days — a 12% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $183,744 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 300 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.49%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $235,818
• List price: $208,800
• Delta: -11.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1418 Deveron Dr	0.18mi	3/1.5	1,382 (+5%)	1mo	$215,900	$156	80
3706 Norland Ln	0.34mi	3/1.5	1,340 (+2%)	4mo	$199,900	$149	76
3942 Olivene Cv	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,410 (+7%)	3mo	$232,000	$165	73
1717 E Macgregor Dr	0.32mi	3/1.5	1,344 (+2%)	8mo	$206,900	$154	73
1524 Macpherson Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,333 (+1%)	7mo	$212,500	$159	72
4027 Centerstone Pkwy	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,415 (+8%)	4mo	$289,900	$205	71
1547 Tartan Ln	0.39mi	3/1.5	1,400 (+6%)	2mo	$215,000	$154	67
1542 Tartan Ln	0.41mi	3/1.5	1,236 (-6%)	4mo	$190,900	$154	66
1735 Lopshire Dr	0.47mi	3/1.5	1,236 (-6%)	8mo	$198,000	$160	59
10364 Silver Rock Chase	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,509 (+15%)	3mo	$297,900	$197	56
10325 Woodsong Cv	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,498 (+14%)	4mo	$279,000	$186	43
1503 Glencoe Blvd	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,470 (+12%)	2mo	$212,800	$145	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-43,384
• Equity at exit: $35,161

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-44,309
• Equity at exit: $20,389

Cash invested: $66,029 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46774

• Active inventory: 176
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,992 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,237
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$295 /mo · $3,537/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$26
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $-82

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,096

Max offer price $223,964

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $81	-5% $0	+0% $-82	+5% $-163	+10% $-245
Rent	-10% $-239	-5% $-161	+0% $-82	+5% $-3	+10% $75
Rate	-1.0pp $37	-0.5pp $-22	base $-82	+0.5pp $-143	+1.0pp $-205

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,954
• Closing costs: $7,075
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3599 Canal Square Dr New Haven, IN	3.0	2.5	1832	$2,295	$1.25	22d	1	0.16mi
3591 Canal Square Dr New Haven, IN	3.0	1.5	1467	$1,695	$1.16	44d	1	0.20mi
10390 Silver Rock Chase New Haven, IN	4.0	2.5	1767	$2,250	$1.27	44d	1	0.33mi
1135 Summit St New Haven, IN	2.0	1.0	1061	$1,025	$0.97	22d	1	1.29mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $26 · $312/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $208,800 Active 300 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $208,800 Active 299 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $208,800 Active 298 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $208,800 Active 297 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $208,800 Active 295 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $208,800 Active 294 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $208,800 Active 292 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $208,800 Active 291 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $208,800 Active 290 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $208,800 Active 289 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $208,800 Active 285 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $208,800 Active 284 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $204,100 Active 283 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $204,100 Active 282 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $204,100 Active 281 DOM
16. 2026-02-09
    price $204,100 409-char remark

    Show marketing remark (409 chars)

    THIS IS A SAMPLE PLAN - THIS IS NOT A HOME FOR SALE. Lancia's Jordan is a very open floorplan, with a cathedral ceiling in the Great Room that faces the Nook and Kitchen. Customize this home to fit your lifestyle by transforming the 3rd Bedroom into an Office or Bonus Room. A full or partial basement is available with additional base price cost due to staircase placement. * Base price does not include land

17. 2025-08-22
    listed $202,100 Active 409-char remark

    Show marketing remark (409 chars)

    THIS IS A SAMPLE PLAN - THIS IS NOT A HOME FOR SALE. Lancia's Jordan is a very open floorplan, with a cathedral ceiling in the Great Room that faces the Nook and Kitchen. Customize this home to fit your lifestyle by transforming the 3rd Bedroom into an Office or Bonus Room. A full or partial basement is available with additional base price cost due to staircase placement. * Base price does not include land

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,905
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,209
• − Property taxes: −$3,537
• − Insurance: −$1,179
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,912
• − Management: −$1,912
• − HOA: −$312
• − Depreciation: −$6,860
• Taxable loss: −$5,017
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,204
• After-tax cash flow: $221/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This home requires extensive repairs and renovations, including a new roof, exterior siding, landscaping, and interior updates. Significant improvements are needed to bring the property up to a livable condition.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Significant wear and tear visible.
• Major exterior siding — Severe discoloration and wear.
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No visible systems, but overall condition suggests they may be outdated or in need of repair.
• Major landscaping — Overgrown and unkempt, with no visible landscaping features.
• Major fencing — Visible damage and missing sections, indicating it needs repair or replacement.
• Major interior walls/paint — No visible interior, but exterior condition suggests poor condition. Likely in need of repainting or renovation.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale exterior painting — Fresh paint can significantly improve the curb appeal and overall appearance of the home.
• Both landscaping — A well-maintained landscape can enhance both the resale and rental value.
• Both HVAC upgrade — Upgrading the HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers and renters.
• Both interior renovation — A fresh interior can make the home more appealing and functional, increasing its value for both resale and rental.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Significant wear and tear visible.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · Severe discoloration and wear.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No visible systems, but overall condition suggests they may be outdated or in need of repair.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Overgrown and unkempt, with no visible landscaping features.	Major	$15,000–50,000
fencing · Visible damage and missing sections, indicating it needs repair or replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · No visible interior, but exterior condition suggests poor condition. Likely in need of repainting or renovation.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$90,000–300,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale exterior painting — Fresh paint can significantly improve the curb appeal and overall appearance of the home. ↑
• Both landscaping — A well-maintained landscape can enhance both the resale and rental value. ↑
• Both HVAC upgrade — Upgrading the HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both interior renovation — A fresh interior can make the home more appealing and functional, increasing its value for both resale and rental. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Allen County Schools
• NCES district ID: 1802850
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,524
• Composite: 35.75/100
• National rank: #4849
• State rank: #122 of 301 in IN

Livability — New Haven

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #7499

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Haven, IN
• Population (ZIP): 17,066

Population outlook (Allen County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 394,020 people
• By 2030: 405,128 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 423,476 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 435,137 · +10.4%
• By 2075: 450,293 · +14.3%
• By 2100: 424,101 · +7.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · German/W. Germanic 6% Spanish 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Allen

• 2024 margin: R (+12.5) · D 42.9% · R 55.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.1pp toward R · 2008: -4.3pp · 2024: -12.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.5 2020: R+11.2 2016: R+19.6 2012: R+16.8 2008: R+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -185.27%
• Current HPI: 241.5333
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+1.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $204,100 Zillow
• 2025-08-22 Listed $202,100 Zillow