12204 Tallow Ridge Dr · Gonzales, LA 70737

$130,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,339 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 2002 0.35 ac lot Est $240k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT INVESTOR OPPORTUNITY! READY-TO-FLIP! This 3 Bedroom/2 Bath home is waiting for the ideal person to remodel! SPACIOUS! Split Floor Plan! OPEN Floor Plan! This house has so much potential! PRIMARY SUITE has a large bathroom with garden style tub with so much counter space! Layout is great for entertaining! This home needs a special buyer. CALL for your PRIVATE SHOWING TODAY!

Key facts

• 0.35 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 2002

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Subdivision: Tallow Ridge

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 parking spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Detached single-family residence; Single-story
• Construction: Vinyl siding, frame, and brick exterior; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Rectangular, sloped lot; Sloping topography; Lot dimensions approximately 100 x 152 (0.35 acres)

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Oven; Dishwasher
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High ceilings
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $181 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 4.5% in Gonzales — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#135 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Ascension Parish (suburban): math 48% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #7 of 98 in LA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gonzales Primary School (math 25% / reading 37%, grade F, #321 of 646 statewide, top 50%, 526 students, 76% FRL); Gonzales Middle School (math 18% / reading 33%, grade F, #139 of 218 statewide, top 64%, 781 students, 69% FRL); East Ascension High School (math 47% / reading 49%, grade D, #43 of 265 statewide, top 16%, 2,098 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 44% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 35% at this address vs 53% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Ascension Parish average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 571 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 579 units permitted in Ascension Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ascension County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.03%
• DSCR: 1.89
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $239,681
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12204 Tallow Ridge Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,339 (0%)	1mo	$130,000	$97	99
12203 Tallow Ridge Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,311 (-2%)	3mo	$235,000	$179	92
12196 Tallow Ridge Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,394 (+4%)	6mo	$245,000	$176	88
12190 Tallow Ridge Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,420 (+6%)	16mo	$254,900	$180	75
42405 Bayou Narcisse Rd	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,142 (-15%)	9mo	$205,000	$180	51
13049 She Lee Place Rd	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,229 (-8%)	11mo	$235,000	$191	42
12182 Roddy Rd	0.39mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,147 (-14%)	15mo	$180,000	$157	37
12270 Adam Ln	0.67mi	3/1.5	1,511 (+13%)	23mo	$189,900	$126	26
42405 Cannon Rd	0.64mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,153 (-14%)	21mo	$225,000	$195	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-8,798
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $10,209
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70737

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 571
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,835 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,276/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $181

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,606

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $255	-5% $218	+0% $181	+5% $144	+10% $107
Rent	-10% $36	-5% $109	+0% $181	+5% $254	+10% $326
Rate	-1.0pp $247	-0.5pp $214	base $181	+0.5pp $147	+1.0pp $113

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12023 Roddy Rd Gonzales, LA	2.0	1.0	900	$950	$1.06	16d	1	0.59mi
13153 Ducks Landing St Gonzales, LA	4.0	3.0	1825	$2,750	$1.51	45d	1	1.12mi
808 S Audubon Place Ave Gonzales, LA	2.0	2.0	1223	$2,000	$1.64	45d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 381-char remark

   Show marketing remark (381 chars)

   GREAT INVESTOR OPPORTUNITY! READY-TO-FLIP! This 3 Bedroom/2 Bath home is waiting for the ideal person to remodel! SPACIOUS! Split Floor Plan! OPEN Floor Plan! This house has so much potential! PRIMARY SUITE has a large bathroom with garden style tub with so much counter space! Layout is great for entertaining! This home needs a special buyer. CALL for your PRIVATE SHOWING TODAY!

2. 2026-05-14
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (381 chars)

   GREAT INVESTOR OPPORTUNITY! READY-TO-FLIP! This 3 Bedroom/2 Bath home is waiting for the ideal person to remodel! SPACIOUS! Split Floor Plan! OPEN Floor Plan! This house has so much potential! PRIMARY SUITE has a large bathroom with garden style tub with so much counter space! Layout is great for entertaining! This home needs a special buyer. CALL for your PRIVATE SHOWING TODAY!

3. 2026-05-12
   listed $130,000 Active 381-char remark

   Show marketing remark (381 chars)

   GREAT INVESTOR OPPORTUNITY! READY-TO-FLIP! This 3 Bedroom/2 Bath home is waiting for the ideal person to remodel! SPACIOUS! Split Floor Plan! OPEN Floor Plan! This house has so much potential! PRIMARY SUITE has a large bathroom with garden style tub with so much counter space! Layout is great for entertaining! This home needs a special buyer. CALL for your PRIVATE SHOWING TODAY!

4. 2026-05-12
   listed $130,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (381 chars)

   GREAT INVESTOR OPPORTUNITY! READY-TO-FLIP! This 3 Bedroom/2 Bath home is waiting for the ideal person to remodel! SPACIOUS! Split Floor Plan! OPEN Floor Plan! This house has so much potential! PRIMARY SUITE has a large bathroom with garden style tub with so much counter space! Layout is great for entertaining! This home needs a special buyer. CALL for your PRIVATE SHOWING TODAY!

5. 2007-09-06
   soldstatus $151,000
6. 2007-09-04
   soldstatus
7. 2007-07-26
   listed $151,000
8. 2007-07-26
   listed $151,000
9. 2002-05-20
   soldstatus $107,900
10. 2001-06-18
    soldstatus
11. 2001-02-01
    listed $107,900
12. 2001-02-01
    listed $107,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,276 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,276 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone AE · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,023
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,276
• − Insurance: −$5,768
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,762
• − Management: −$1,762
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $391
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$94
• After-tax cash flow: $2,079/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ascension Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200090
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -31.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -25.00%
• Median HH income: $68,423
• Composite: 47.0/100
• National rank: #2347
• State rank: #7 of 98 in LA

Livability — Gonzales

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #135
• US rank: #12429

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ascension Parish · 98,362 people
• City population: 49,084
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• Population (ZIP): 49,084
• Household income: $82,521
• Rent vs Own: 22.0% rent · 78.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 863.0

Population outlook (Ascension County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,480 people
• By 2030: 158,329 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 183,741 · +26.3%
• By 2050: 207,615 · +42.7%
• By 2075: 260,244 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 289,576 · +99.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 26% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ascension

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.0) · D 32.2% · R 66.1% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.7pp toward D · 2008: -35.7pp · 2024: -34.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.0 2020: R+32.5 2016: R+36.0 2012: R+34.3 2008: R+35.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.49%
• Current HPI: 145.3384
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.26%
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+20.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — AcadianaMLS
• 2026-05-14 Pending — GBRMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $130,000 GBRMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $130,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2007-09-06 Sold (Public Records) $151,000 Public Records
• 2007-09-04 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2007-07-26 Listed $151,000 GBRMLS
• 2007-07-26 Listed $151,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2002-05-20 Sold (Public Records) $107,900 Public Records
• 2001-06-18 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2001-02-01 Listed $107,900 GBRMLS
• 2001-02-01 Listed $107,900 AcadianaMLS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,276 · -1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.