The Ryker Plan · Panama City, FL 32404

$254,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,443 sqft · SingleFamily · 194 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Ryker, one of our new plans at Liberty in Panama City, Florida. The Ryker is a spacious single-story home with 1,443 square feet of comfortable living. This beautiful home offers 3 bedrooms with 2 bathrooms, and a 1-car garage. Met with a cozy covered porch as you enter the home, the foyer welcomes you with beautiful EVP flooring which spans throughout the home in the main areas and bathrooms. Right by the front door is a bonus area which can serve as an office or a creative space. The hallway leads to the garage and laundry room into the open kitchen and living room area and the second and third bedrooms with the second bathroom in between. Each bedroom boasts plenty of space and sizeable closets for organization with soft carpet flooring. The kitchen includes an island for extra counterspace and seating with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and beautiful white cabinetry. Natural light illuminates this main area for your family and friends to enjoy. Nearby, covered patio access is located by the primary bedroom and the dining area. The spacious primary bedroom features its own bathroom complete with double vanity granite countertops, a large walk-in closet, and a relaxing shower. In addition to all the features and amenities our Ryker plan offers, each is built with our Smart Home technology package, designed to bring the ease and convenience of life right to your fingertips. On the outside of this popular plan, you will see durable vinyl si

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Evp flooring
• Granite countertops

Tags

• COVERED PORCH
• BONUS AREA
• EVP FLOORING
• ISLAND FOR COUNTERSPACE
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

🏗️ New construction. The $254,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $278,175.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-296 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $235k (7.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (19.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (19.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 981 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 194 days — a 12% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,861 (19.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 194 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.56%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $278,175
• List price: $254,900
• Delta: -8.37%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6380 Bellavia Ln	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+4%)	2mo	$270,000	$180	80
6468 Slabinski Ln	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+4%)	5mo	$254,000	$169	68
7094 George Day Ln	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,272 (-12%)	9mo	$248,400	$195	63
7050 George Day Ln	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,580 (+10%)	8mo	$264,900	$168	63
6939 William Pitsenbarger Rd	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,580 (+10%)	8mo	$261,900	$166	62
5114 Debi Rd	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,424 (-1%)	8mo	$280,000	$197	61
6558 Canley Ct	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,383 (-4%)	2mo	$267,500	$193	60
6889 William Pitsenbarger Rd	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,580 (+10%)	7mo	$279,900	$177	56
6901 William Pitsenbarger Rd	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,580 (+10%)	9mo	$263,400	$167	54
7086 George Day Ln	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,580 (+10%)	9mo	$267,051	$169	53
6628 Slabinski Ln	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+4%)	7mo	$289,000	$193	51
6629 Slabinski Ln	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+4%)	8mo	$260,000	$173	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-67,727
• Equity at exit: $41,477

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.26×
• Total profit: $-98,237
• Equity at exit: $24,051

Cash invested: $77,889 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32404

• Home prices YoY: -16.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 981
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,059 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,459
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$348 /mo · $4,173/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $-296

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,433

Max offer price $235,328

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-104	-5% $-200	+0% $-296	+5% $-392	+10% $-488
Rent	-10% $-459	-5% $-377	+0% $-296	+5% $-215	+10% $-133
Rate	-1.0pp $-156	-0.5pp $-225	base $-296	+0.5pp $-368	+1.0pp $-442

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,544
• Closing costs: $8,345
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6416 Bellavia Ln Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1812	$2,100	$1.16	14d	1	0.24mi
4800 N Star Ave Panama City, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	974	$1,623	$1.67	14d	10	0.42mi
5284 Emma Grace Dr Panama City, FL	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	2069	$2,081	$1.01	14d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $254,900 Active 194 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $254,900 Active 192 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $254,900 Active 191 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $254,900 Active 190 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $254,900 Active 189 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $254,900 Active 188 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $254,900 Active 186 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $254,900 Active 185 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $254,900 Active 183 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $254,900 Active 182 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $254,900 Active 181 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $254,900 Active 180 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $254,900 Active 177 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $254,900 Active 176 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $254,900 Active 175 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $254,900 Active 174 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $254,900 Active 173 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $254,900 Active 172 DOM
19. 2026-05-01
    price $254,900 1497-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1497 chars)

    Welcome to the Ryker, one of our new plans at Liberty in Panama City, Florida. The Ryker is a spacious single-story home with 1,443 square feet of comfortable living. This beautiful home offers 3 bedrooms with 2 bathrooms, and a 1-car garage. Met with a cozy covered porch as you enter the home, the foyer welcomes you with beautiful EVP flooring which spans throughout the home in the main areas and bathrooms. Right by the front door is a bonus area which can serve as an office or a creative space. The hallway leads to the garage and laundry room into the open kitchen and living room area and the second and third bedrooms with the second bathroom in between. Each bedroom boasts plenty of space and sizeable closets for organization with soft carpet flooring. The kitchen includes an island for extra counterspace and seating with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and beautiful white cabinetry. Natural light illuminates this main area for your family and friends to enjoy. Nearby, covered patio access is located by the primary bedroom and the dining area. The spacious primary bedroom features its own bathroom complete with double vanity granite countertops, a large walk-in closet, and a relaxing shower. In addition to all the features and amenities our Ryker plan offers, each is built with our Smart Home technology package, designed to bring the ease and convenience of life right to your fingertips. On the outside of this popular plan, you will see durable vinyl si

20. 2026-02-03
    price $264,900 1497-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1497 chars)

    Welcome to the Ryker, one of our new plans at Liberty in Panama City, Florida. The Ryker is a spacious single-story home with 1,443 square feet of comfortable living. This beautiful home offers 3 bedrooms with 2 bathrooms, and a 1-car garage. Met with a cozy covered porch as you enter the home, the foyer welcomes you with beautiful EVP flooring which spans throughout the home in the main areas and bathrooms. Right by the front door is a bonus area which can serve as an office or a creative space. The hallway leads to the garage and laundry room into the open kitchen and living room area and the second and third bedrooms with the second bathroom in between. Each bedroom boasts plenty of space and sizeable closets for organization with soft carpet flooring. The kitchen includes an island for extra counterspace and seating with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and beautiful white cabinetry. Natural light illuminates this main area for your family and friends to enjoy. Nearby, covered patio access is located by the primary bedroom and the dining area. The spacious primary bedroom features its own bathroom complete with double vanity granite countertops, a large walk-in closet, and a relaxing shower. In addition to all the features and amenities our Ryker plan offers, each is built with our Smart Home technology package, designed to bring the ease and convenience of life right to your fingertips. On the outside of this popular plan, you will see durable vinyl si

21. 2025-12-10
    listed $262,900 Active 1497-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1497 chars)

    Welcome to the Ryker, one of our new plans at Liberty in Panama City, Florida. The Ryker is a spacious single-story home with 1,443 square feet of comfortable living. This beautiful home offers 3 bedrooms with 2 bathrooms, and a 1-car garage. Met with a cozy covered porch as you enter the home, the foyer welcomes you with beautiful EVP flooring which spans throughout the home in the main areas and bathrooms. Right by the front door is a bonus area which can serve as an office or a creative space. The hallway leads to the garage and laundry room into the open kitchen and living room area and the second and third bedrooms with the second bathroom in between. Each bedroom boasts plenty of space and sizeable closets for organization with soft carpet flooring. The kitchen includes an island for extra counterspace and seating with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and beautiful white cabinetry. Natural light illuminates this main area for your family and friends to enjoy. Nearby, covered patio access is located by the primary bedroom and the dining area. The spacious primary bedroom features its own bathroom complete with double vanity granite countertops, a large walk-in closet, and a relaxing shower. In addition to all the features and amenities our Ryker plan offers, each is built with our Smart Home technology package, designed to bring the ease and convenience of life right to your fingertips. On the outside of this popular plan, you will see durable vinyl si

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,703
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,582
• − Property taxes: −$4,173
• − Insurance: −$1,391
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,976
• − Management: −$1,976
• − Depreciation: −$8,092
• Taxable loss: −$8,487
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,037
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,516/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

The Ryker Plan is a well-maintained single-story home with good condition and minimal repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Improves appearance and durability
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Improves appearance and durability ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Panama City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #350
• US rank: #5823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Panama City, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 91,445
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,514
• Household income: $74,708
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1218.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, Mexico
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.59%
• Current HPI: 263.7178
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.12%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-3.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $254,900 Zillow
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $264,900 Zillow
• 2025-12-10 Listed $262,900 Zillow