602 1st Ave NE · Brainerd, MN 56401

$121,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,491 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1984 10,454 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.7/30.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Ready to pack your bags? This charming North East Brainerd home is ready for new owners. This home boasts new flooring, paint, roof, water heater, clean carpets, firepit, windows, tile, doors, garage door, garage floor, shelving and a giant fenced in corner lot with beautiful landscaping.

Key facts

• Natural woodwork
• Walk-in closet
• Primary suite

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• PRIMARY SUITE
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• SKYLIGHT
• NATURAL WOODWORK
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $121k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $328 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $121k).
• Recommended offer: $117k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 3.1% in Brainerd — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#272 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Brainerd Public School District (town): math 49% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #85 of 301 in MN (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 401 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 420 units permitted in Crow Wing County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $837 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Crow Wing County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,370 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.62%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $244,524
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
508 Bluff Ave	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,492 (+0%)	12mo	$245,000	$164	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,349
• Equity at exit: $18,041

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $28,344
• Equity at exit: $10,462

Cash invested: $33,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56401

• Active inventory: 401
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,562 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$635
• Tax from tax record: −$221 /mo · $2,656/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $328

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,147

Max offer price $121,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,250
• Closing costs: $3,630
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
623 28th St SE Brainerd, MN	2.0	2.0	964	$1,699	$1.76	43d	3	1.38mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-10
   historical Contingent - Third Party Approval
3. 2026-04-06
   status Active
4. 2026-03-05
   historical Contingent - Third Party Approval
5. 2026-02-23
   listed $121,000 Active
6. 2021-06-22
   soldstatus $206,061
7. 2019-11-25
   soldstatus $162,500
8. 2019-11-22
   soldstatus $162,500 Sold 290-char remark

   Show marketing remark (290 chars)

   Ready to pack your bags? This charming North East Brainerd home is ready for new owners. This home boasts new flooring, paint, roof, water heater, clean carpets, firepit, windows, tile, doors, garage door, garage floor, shelving and a giant fenced in corner lot with beautiful landscaping.

9. 2019-11-01
   historical 290-char remark

   Show marketing remark (290 chars)

   Ready to pack your bags? This charming North East Brainerd home is ready for new owners. This home boasts new flooring, paint, roof, water heater, clean carpets, firepit, windows, tile, doors, garage door, garage floor, shelving and a giant fenced in corner lot with beautiful landscaping.

10. 2019-10-17
    historical Contingent - Inspection 290-char remark

    Show marketing remark (290 chars)

    Ready to pack your bags? This charming North East Brainerd home is ready for new owners. This home boasts new flooring, paint, roof, water heater, clean carpets, firepit, windows, tile, doors, garage door, garage floor, shelving and a giant fenced in corner lot with beautiful landscaping.

11. 2019-10-11
    listed $165,900 Active 290-char remark

    Show marketing remark (290 chars)

    Ready to pack your bags? This charming North East Brainerd home is ready for new owners. This home boasts new flooring, paint, roof, water heater, clean carpets, firepit, windows, tile, doors, garage door, garage floor, shelving and a giant fenced in corner lot with beautiful landscaping.

12. 2015-02-26
    soldstatus $75,790 Sold 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    You will love this great family home or investment property. This home features 3BR, 2 BA on an oversized lot with fully fenced yard. Enjoy master suite w/jetted tub, open floor plan and vaulted ceilings!

13. 2015-02-26
    soldstatus $75,790

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    You will love this great family home or investment property. This home features 3BR, 2 BA on an oversized lot with fully fenced yard. Enjoy master suite w/jetted tub, open floor plan and vaulted ceilings!

14. 2015-02-26
    soldstatus $75,790

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    You will love this great family home or investment property. This home features 3BR, 2 BA on an oversized lot with fully fenced yard. Enjoy master suite w/jetted tub, open floor plan and vaulted ceilings!

15. 2015-02-26
    soldstatus $75,790

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    You will love this great family home or investment property. This home features 3BR, 2 BA on an oversized lot with fully fenced yard. Enjoy master suite w/jetted tub, open floor plan and vaulted ceilings!

16. 2015-02-06
    status Pending 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    You will love this great family home or investment property. This home features 3BR, 2 BA on an oversized lot with fully fenced yard. Enjoy master suite w/jetted tub, open floor plan and vaulted ceilings!

17. 2015-01-15
    price $74,900 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    You will love this great family home or investment property. This home features 3BR, 2 BA on an oversized lot with fully fenced yard. Enjoy master suite w/jetted tub, open floor plan and vaulted ceilings!

18. 2014-10-17
    listed $79,900 Active 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    You will love this great family home or investment property. This home features 3BR, 2 BA on an oversized lot with fully fenced yard. Enjoy master suite w/jetted tub, open floor plan and vaulted ceilings!

19. 2014-10-17
    listed $74,900

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    You will love this great family home or investment property. This home features 3BR, 2 BA on an oversized lot with fully fenced yard. Enjoy master suite w/jetted tub, open floor plan and vaulted ceilings!

20. 2014-10-17
    listed $74,900

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    You will love this great family home or investment property. This home features 3BR, 2 BA on an oversized lot with fully fenced yard. Enjoy master suite w/jetted tub, open floor plan and vaulted ceilings!

21. 2011-04-29
    historical
22. 2011-02-05
    listed $79,900
23. 2008-03-03
    historical
24. 2008-01-17
    listed $102,000
25. 2004-08-23
    soldstatus $96,000
26. 2004-07-29
    historical
27. 2004-06-10
    listed $98,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,656 · $221/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,656 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,748
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,778
• − Property taxes: −$2,656
• − Insurance: −$605
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,500
• − Management: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$3,520
• Taxable income: $2,190
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$526
• After-tax cash flow: $3,410/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brainerd Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2706090
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $49,059
• Composite: 45.57/100
• National rank: #2596
• State rank: #85 of 301 in MN

Livability — Brainerd

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #272
• US rank: #5889

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brainerd, MN
• County: Crow Wing County · 40,773 people
• City population: 31,841
• Metro: Brainerd, MN
• Population (ZIP): 31,841
• Household income: $73,128
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 454.0

Population outlook (Crow Wing County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 64,187 people
• By 2030: 64,057 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 62,470 · -2.7%
• By 2050: 59,064 · -8.0%
• By 2075: 48,738 · -24.1%
• By 2100: 36,112 · -43.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 12% Romanian 6% Lithuanian 5%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Crow Wing

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.6% · R 65.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.7pp toward R · 2008: -7.7pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+29.7 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+13.4 2008: R+7.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -226.09%
• Current HPI: 220.3299
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Brainerd, MN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+23.5% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-06 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-05 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-23 Listed $121,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-22 Sold (Public Records) $206,061 Public Records
• 2019-11-25 Sold (Public Records) $162,500 Public Records
• 2019-11-22 Sold (MLS) $162,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-11-01 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-17 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-11 Listed $165,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-02-26 Sold (Public Records) $75,790 Public Records
• 2015-02-26 Sold (MLS) $75,790 LSAR
• 2015-02-26 Sold (MLS) $75,790 RASM
• 2015-02-26 Sold (MLS) $75,790 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-02-06 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-01-15 Price Changed $74,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-10-17 Listed $79,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-10-17 Listed $74,900 LSAR
• 2014-10-17 Listed $74,900 RASM
• 2011-04-29 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-02-05 Listed $79,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-03-03 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-01-17 Listed $102,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-08-23 Sold (MLS) $96,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-07-29 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-06-10 Listed $98,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+10.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,656 · +22.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.