17564 State Route 22 · Berlin, NY 12022

$499,000

9 bd · 6.9 ba · 2,425 sqft · MultiFamily · 80 Days on market

Built 1810 7.00 ac lot ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• Appreciation +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 3 units. estimate disagrees with records

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks MLS

Discover a rare opportunity with these newly renovated apartments for sale. Two separate structures, perfect for investors or future homeowners. Each unit well maintained and currently occupied. Updates include newer roofs, newer electrical, newer plumbing & electrical, newer windows, on 7 acres of land. Located in Berlin, close to Berlin High School, Vermont, Massachusetts and the Jiminy Peak Ski Resort.

Key facts

• 7 acre lot
• 8 parking spots
• Built 1810

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3 × 3-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $499k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-202 ($-2k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-67/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $463k (7.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $390k (21.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $390k (21.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Berlin Central School District (rural): math 45% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #412 of 590 in NY (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Berlin Elementary School (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 273 students, 60% FRL); Berlin Middle School/High School (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,007 of 1,100 statewide, top 93%, 360 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 56% FRL vs 33% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 405 units permitted in Rensselaer County in 2024 (224 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $38k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $34k appreciation (6.9% local appreciation)).
• Rensselaer County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$60k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($469k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1810 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $389,800 (21.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
4. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
5. Built in 1810 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
6. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
7. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
8. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.16%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.87% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.13×
• Total profit: $157,277
• Equity at exit: $341,474

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.34×
• Total profit: $467,131
• Equity at exit: $644,772

Cash invested: $139,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12022

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 32.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,898 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,617
• Tax from tax record: −$390 /mo · $4,683/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$819
• Net cashflow: $-202

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,154

Max offer price $463,312

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $80	-5% $-61	+0% $-202	+5% $-343	+10% $-484
Rent	-10% $-510	-5% $-356	+0% $-202	+5% $-48	+10% $106
Rate	-1.0pp $49	-0.5pp $-75	base $-202	+0.5pp $-331	+1.0pp $-463

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	3	—	$3,897
Total (3 units)			$3,898

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,750
• Closing costs: $14,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $499,000 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $499,000 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $499,000 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $499,000 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $499,000 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $499,000 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $499,000 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $499,000 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $499,000 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $499,000 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $499,000 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $499,000 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $499,000 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $499,000 Active 59 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $499,000 Active 58 DOM
16. 2026-04-01
    listed $499,000 Active 413-char remark

    Show marketing remark (413 chars)

    Discover a rare opportunity with these newly renovated apartments for sale. Two separate structures, perfect for investors or future homeowners. Each unit well maintained and currently occupied. Updates include newer roofs, newer electrical, newer plumbing & electrical, newer windows, on 7 acres of land. Located in Berlin, close to Berlin High School, Vermont, Massachusetts and the Jiminy Peak Ski Resort.

17. 2026-01-15
    historical
18. 2025-09-01
    price $599,900
19. 2025-07-07
    listed $649,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,683 · $390/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,558 · $547/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,875/yr (+$156/mo · 40.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥89°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,776
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,952
• − Property taxes: −$4,683
• − Insurance: −$3,292
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,742
• − Management: −$3,742
• − Depreciation: −$14,516
• Taxable loss: −$11,152
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,676
• After-tax cash flow: $252/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Berlin Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3604620
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,335
• Composite: 41.5/100
• National rank: #3455
• State rank: #412 of 590 in NY

Livability — Berlin

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,069

Population outlook (Rensselaer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 162,400 people
• By 2030: 161,746 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 158,095 · -2.7%
• By 2050: 152,966 · -5.8%
• By 2075: 140,767 · -13.3%
• By 2100: 124,727 · -23.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Romanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rensselaer

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.7% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.0pp toward R · 2008: 9.3pp · 2024: 1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.4 2020: D+5.6 2016: R+2.9 2012: D+11.8 2008: D+9.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.87%
• Current HPI: 271.7433
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-23.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Listed $499,000 Global MLS
• 2026-01-15 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2025-09-01 Price Changed $599,900 Global MLS
• 2025-07-07 Listed $649,900 Global MLS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,683 · +8.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.