9244 Ogalala St · Bayonet Point, FL 34654

$158,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 125 Days on market

Built 1977 6,000 sqft lot Est $187k · 15% under ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.7/30.0
• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this well-located 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home in New Port Richey, FL, situated just one block off State Road 52 for easy access to shopping, dining, and everyday conveniences. Inside, you’ll find new flooring and subflooring throughout, along with updated plumbing featuring new pipes—no polybutylene—providing added peace of mind. The split floor plan offers comfortable living with two full bathrooms and flexible space for family, guests, or a home office. Enjoy being less than half a mile from Aldi, Wawa, and Publix, making errands quick and convenient. Popular local dining options are also under a mile away. Perfectly positioned for Florida living, this

Key facts

• Near gulf coast
• New flooring
• Split floor plan

Tags

• NEW FLOORING
• UPDATED PLUMBING
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO DINING
• NEAR GULF COAST

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished: Unfurnished
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Cable available; Electricity available; Broadband/High-speed internet available
• Home design: Manufactured double wide home; Single-story; Faces west; Entry level: One
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built on a 0.14-acre lot
• Exterior features: Awning(s); Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Wall/window unit(s)
• Interior features: Decorative fireplace; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater; Laundry available inside and outside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $158k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $475 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $158k).
• Recommended offer: $139k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 5.3% in Bayonet Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#485 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D+, schools F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 353 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($139k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,040 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.87%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $186,816
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9331 Ottawa St	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,334 (-1%)	9mo	$185,000	$139	77
9435 Loras St	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-3%)	7mo	$100,000	$77	72
9300 Ottawa St	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,488 (+11%)	2mo	$190,500	$128	70
9716 Andy Dr	0.53mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (0%)	13mo	$190,000	$141	59
12030 Chuck Cir	0.34mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (-4%)	19mo	$205,000	$158	57
9725 Gary St	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	11mo	$198,000	$147	56
9431 Pontiac St	0.51mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,416 (+5%)	9mo	$30,000	$21	55
11326 Minnieola Dr	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+7%)	11mo	$200,000	$139	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-903
• Equity at exit: $23,558

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $16,779
• Equity at exit: $13,661

Cash invested: $44,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34654

• Home prices YoY: -12.7%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 353
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,877 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$829
• Tax from tax record: −$114 /mo · $1,368/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $475

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,276

Max offer price $158,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,500
• Closing costs: $4,740
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9444 Bourbon St Unit 12 New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,875	$1.63	24d	1	0.42mi
12215 Meadowbrook Ln Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1519	$1,850	$1.22	23d	1	1.09mi
8312 Mill Creek Ln Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1152	$1,600	$1.39	24d	1	1.10mi
12909 Litewood Dr Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	984	$1,645	$1.67	17d	1	1.14mi
12909 Litewood Dr Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,645	$1.65	24d	1	1.14mi
8304 Mill Creek Ln Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,650	$1.65	24d	1	1.15mi
12200 Hudson Ridge Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1107	$1,704	$1.54	2d	10	1.16mi
13013 Sawmill Way Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1519	$1,790	$1.18	5d	1	1.24mi
8161 Braddock Cir #1 Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,595	$1.59	17d	1	1.27mi
11630 Paige Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,680	$1.46	12d	1	1.36mi
7924 Halsey Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,800	$1.42	21d	1	1.37mi
7924 Halsey Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,800	$1.42	5d	1	1.37mi
13102 Pembrook Ct Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1221	$1,575	$1.29	24d	1	1.40mi
11611 Constance Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	984	$1,540	$1.57	24d	1	1.43mi
11611 Constance Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	984	$1,540	$1.57	11d	1	1.43mi
13220 Whaler Dr Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1566	$1,990	$1.27	24d	1	1.44mi
11610 Meadow Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1128	$1,570	$1.39	12d	1	1.45mi
12213 Saddle Strap Row Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1684	$1,990	$1.18	17d	1	1.45mi
8305 Sandwedge Cir Unit A Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1144	$1,450	$1.27	21d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $158,000 Active 125 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $158,000 Active 124 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 123 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 122 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 120 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 116 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 115 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,000 Active 114 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $175,000 Active 111 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 110 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 109 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 108 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 107 DOM
14. 2026-04-13
    price $175,000
15. 2026-02-13
    listed $199,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,368 · $114/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,368 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,526
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,850
• − Property taxes: −$1,368
• − Insurance: −$790
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,802
• − Management: −$1,802
• − Depreciation: −$4,596
• Taxable income: $3,317
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$796
• After-tax cash flow: $4,899/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bayonet Point

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #485
• US rank: #8934

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,355
• Household income: $73,947
• Rent vs Own: 20.0% rent · 80.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 179.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.63%
• Current HPI: 294.4358
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.85%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-12.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-13 Listed $199,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+18.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,368 · +9.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.